. . . it's really pretty simple, r9 . . . if I'm making a bet . . . I can go with the actions of the best in the business . . . or the ramblings of an anonymous nobody on a yahoo message board . . . it's really a matter of credentials and probabilities . . .
. . . late 2014 -- almost two years after EARLY 2013 -- BioMarin, one of the best rare/orphan drug outfits in the world, pays about $675 million upfront for rna to acquire drisapersen . . . as a BMRN and GSK shareholder, I would, first, like to think that GSK got it right by walking away from the drug . . . but I gotta tell you, if BMRN kicks the tires and sees a winner, my take going forward is that GSK got it wrong . . . also, last time I checked, drisapersen still had the coveted "Breakthrough" designation from the FDA . . .
. . . that's a pretty definitive statement, k2 . . . but if that were really true, why would BMRN -- one of the best in the rare/orphan disease business -- pay $675 million upfront? . . .
. . . yeah, d9, those very real OREX negotiations in Europe will likely remain arna fantasies for some time to come . . .
. . . John Seward (Benzinga) writes this morning: ““Leerink's Paul Matteis maintained an Outperform rating on the shares, noting that last month Orexigen said it was talking with multiple potential partners for the drug in Europe. . . . The company had said it didn't expect to sign a deal until it had obtained marketing approval. . . . Orexigen shares may also see gains next month when it submits outlines of an upcoming study to regulators. This will "help alleviate investor concerns" about Orexigen's standing with the Food and Drug Administration, Matteis said.”” . . . OREX . . . standin’ tall – lookin’ good . . .
. . . so, jd . . . all those negative postings about OREX and Euro approval -- day after day . . . ad nauseam -- turned out to be just more nonsense-filled areniac fantasies . . . what a shocker . . .
. . . Spencer Osborne on 3/28/15: “Contrave refills are tracking at the best trajectory in the sector since Contrave's launch. For perspective, Belviq, which up until Contrave's launch had the best trajectories, achieved 2,000 refills after 52 weeks. Contrave was more than twice as fast on the refill front.” . . . SO -- tellin’ it like it is . . . again . . .
. . . how does that affect the calculus on srpt's drug? . . .
. . . “Contrave’s total scripts pass Qsymia . . . Contrave is gaining on Belviq . . . With European approval, Orexigen can be aggressive” . . . Spencer Osborne on 3/28 – tellin’ it like it is . . . again . . .
. . . actually, p1, about $215 -- but why quibble . . . ACAD and BLUE have market caps of $3.2B and $3.7B, respectively . . . I would think a $5 billion market cap would not be unreasonable for this indication if it posts solid, irrefutable results . . . and although "Mr. Market" may think Mydicar won't work, the FDA must think it has a reasonable shot since they gave it their coveted Breakthrough Therapy Designation -- as they did to treatments from ACAD and BLUE . . . we'll see . . .