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NVIDIA Corporation Message Board

neo_trinity1020 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 7, 2014 5:14 PM Member since: Jan 25, 2005
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  • every segment is performing great, margins are at a record and they guided higher. a few big wins not factored in to the guidance and this thing will explode. God forbid we get a decent market and the economy actually grows. OPEX under control....they are absolutely killing money should be coming in at this level. There will be upgrades. wait until maxwell gets going...gonna slaughter everything out there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well, expectations are certainly low...

    by mslans Aug 7, 2014 10:25 AM
    neo_trinity1020 neo_trinity1020 Aug 7, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    They already dropped the stock 2 full points since the AMD report so even if the miss which i don't think they will since guidance was not aggressive, its already priced in. If you remove the cash out of the price of the stock, its forward P/E is around 11 or 12....that is very cheap for a growth company in the technology field. Their patent portfolio alone is worth more than the stock price in my opinion. this is what intel pays them 1.5 billion...if intel thought their patents were not worth it, believe me, they would not have paid them that much for them. I think guidance will be strong. there are some high volume tegra K1 products already out and more on the way during the quarter. Nexus 8/9 will be coming soon with tegra will be a good seller. Even without that, how many million mipads will xiaomi sell in just china, never mind india and the other markets they expand to .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is the deal with this price action

    by neo_trinity1020 Jul 25, 2014 9:53 AM
    neo_trinity1020 neo_trinity1020 Jul 25, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Also, forgot to mention that at the current level, with a 10% correction in a week, the market has priced in an earnings miss for them. even if their numbers are not that great, unless the guidance really sucks, I think we move up after the earnings release. With new products ramping and the ramp for the back to school and holiday season, demand should be pretty good for all their core businesses. TSMC screwed us with 20nm again. they basically put apple first and NVidia and amd took a back seat. I don't know if we see Maxwell at the high end in 28nm, 20nm or they just skip to 16 but kepler is stale and real demand for upgrades will not take place without a healthy price cut or a new product launch. Nvidia needs to diversify its foundry partners..they are at the mercy of TSMC which doesn't seem to be showing NVidia love right now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neo_trinity1020 by neo_trinity1020 Jul 25, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    stock is dropping every day with no support. I think the market has run out of buyers...we'll have to see what they say during the earnings. they need a big win or something to energize them...right now, its like watching the grass grow..i do think selling at this level is giving it away. the forward P/E is pretty low when you consider the cash they have as well as the billions in built in automotive revenue over the next few years.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • neo_trinity1020 neo_trinity1020 Jul 24, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    like i said...they posted the conf press release exactly at 5pm. Once they set that, they don't issue subsequent press releases with warnings so that is off the table. At this point, the stock should stabilize and move higher as we get closer to earnings. the drop off is unjustified and guidance going forward should be pretty good with terga k1 ramping into more products.

  • Completely manipulated and unjustified downward move in the stock down. they have 6 bucks a share in cash so at 12, their PE is significantly lower than most SOX stocks. nobody believes in the future of this company so they get no premium. This year, nvidia has to put up or shut up. If tegra k1 does not secure high volume design wins, then i think it may be time to hang it up because the tablet market is going to be commoditized just like the phone market and they already gave up on that.

  • They ususally issue it 2 weeks before so today would line up with previous years. I doubt we get a warning revision at this point...way too late for that..if they missed, they will just report it the day of and hopefully guidance will be good. I don't think they missed. the estimates were not agressive and the visibility into the channel is pretty good from them. AMD said the professional market was good and thats gonna help nvidia way more than AMD. Also, have to remember that nvidia has the tegra, tesla, grid, etc revenue streams that AMD does not so those areas may have outperformed to balance out the softer GPU market.

  • Reply to

    No love on wall street for NVDA today...

    by real_estate_bobby Jul 23, 2014 1:00 PM
    neo_trinity1020 neo_trinity1020 Jul 23, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    anybody willing to take positions at a 10% discount to the price less than a week ago on no news. what is the deal with this. keep in mind that the whole semiconductor sector is weak today other than apple. If there is a warning coming i am shocked they haven't provided it yet. You would think they would have done it the same day AMD reported to get all the bad news out at once. I think they were conservative with their guidance so i'm not expecting a miss. I also think Guidance is going to be good for the rest of the year with new products ramping.

  • Reply to

    Is a warning coming?!

    by mslans Jul 22, 2014 3:58 PM
    neo_trinity1020 neo_trinity1020 Jul 22, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    They usually announce the earnings date 2 weeks in advance and that is usually the first week of august. I would suspect they will announce the date on Thursday which would put the earnings annoucement at 8/7. If they were going to miss, they would probably already know and have issued a press release if the miss was that bad. I believe at their last earnings call, they explained that they had modelled in a softer GPU market for the 2nd quarter. I believe guidance will be good going foward with tegra k1 ramping into new products as well as more maxwell cards coming out. Grid could be a big factor and the professional segment seems to be doing better. AMD's earnings were not that bad, they just have bad margins because they are in all the low end and their guidance was soft because it is too consumer weighted with the xbox and ps4. I think we are a different story than AMD.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • neo_trinity1020 neo_trinity1020 Jul 18, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    I can't believe we did not recover a litte bit at the end of the day in a strong market. Do people really think nvidia is going to report the same #$%$ poor results that AMD just did? Amd didn't exactly miss, they just guided lousy. I don't think nvidia is going to guide poorly. Tegra K1 sales are really going to be ramping up especially with the Xiaomi tablet selling out instantly. google project tango, automotive, etc...also expecting new maxwell cards in the next few months. What about GRID, TESLA, etc? I don't think their Q2 guidance was very agressive. They should annouce their earnings date next week so my guess is that they would have warned by now if they were not going to make it. Also, intel selling more PC's clearly favors nvidia, not AMD. The people that bought today are going to be rewarded next week. Also, not sure if folks remember that amazon is builing server centers with tons of teslas...not sure what quarter that gets recorded in but its coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Nvidia's earnings guidance already baked in a softer GPU market and nvidia was not benefiting nearly as much from the bitcoin mining as AMD was. For NVDA to be down 4 percent today is just plain stupid. I have bought more today and am sure it will recover next week. They have been playing games for week with this stock...BS downgrades worrying about revenue going away in 2017 from intc, overreaction to other earnings...its all smoke and mirrors. We are trading as much volume today as we do on the day after our own earnings release. Do people really still think nvidia and AMD have similar models...AMD will be going bye bye in the next few years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • neo_trinity1020 by neo_trinity1020 Jul 17, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    AMD is broke and ripe for the picking. Why compete with them. They should just buy them, get rid of the bad stuff and keep the good stuff. Intel has no reason to let AMD survive anymore since PC's and tablets run on ARM processors so the governement can't cry foul about a monopoly. AMD overpaid for ATI and has never recovered. Everybody said nvidia was screwed after that merger but look how things turned out. Nvidia's market position has never been stronger.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Going to 17's

    by tomasco3777 Jun 23, 2014 9:14 AM
    neo_trinity1020 neo_trinity1020 Jun 23, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    maybe 17 is your age since that is what a 17 year old investor might think. do your homework...based on their cash position which continues to grow, the stocks valuation is lagging the S&P by 25%

  • Reply to

    today's action brought to you by, pacific crest

    by sam29281 Jun 23, 2014 5:50 AM
    neo_trinity1020 neo_trinity1020 Jun 23, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    this is yet another attempt to get the price down so they can load up before the many big events occurring throughout the rest of the year. The google I/O conference is just a few days away and I'm pretty sure there will be some announcements there. Also, the Maxwell 28nm parts should be coming pretty soon as well since TSMC totally F##$d up 20nm but that should have been expected by NVidia anyway. I really wish they would diversify their foundry partners because TSMC has been screwing them for years. They need credibility for the downgrade so they can use the intel license agreement risk as an impact to their long term investment decision. This way the SEC can't really say anything about that. Its all a game...They know 2017 is irrelevant but a nice downgrade gets the price down in the short term. I will be buying more today on dips. The smart investors realize the potential versus the valuation here. easily could double in a year with Grid and Tegra revenues growing every quarter. Tegra K1 will be around for quite some time so there will be no ramp up and ramp down lag like we've had in the past. Xiamoi on its own is generating huge revenue for us.

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