BTH just had a press release about how fast a new promoter in Visalus was able to ascend the rankings in terms of being a top seller. If this news release does not match with increased number of promoters for Visalus, I'm going to be reallllly angry, and switch sides calling Visalus a fraud. Otherwise, this news story should indicate that we are going to see a pretty good number out of Visalus when they announce earnings. If this was a pump the stock up type announcement, the stock will get hit harder than ever. If it's real and credible, then the stock is going to rip upward.
It definitely did not go as expected. If I was one of the Goergens i would have never let my stock get hit like this. I would have worked my butt off to preserve the value of my stock. It's like these people are asleep behind their desks :) There is so much opportunity to make the stock go up. And what a bad investment they made in Visalus. So weird....they need to watch a few episodes of shark tank to learn how to logically buy other companies.
Thanks. If I end up losing on this one, I'll just chalk it up to experience. I know all the negative arguments about MLM, but I don't think I'll be able to wrap my head around a stock with this much short interest simply having NO vulnerability to upside news. Even the CVSL bid was faded. In retrospect the deal did fall apart, but why it didn't scare more people into short covering is strange. In order to fade the price you'd think you'd be fighting against millions of shares of shorts covering. It just didn't work that way. We'll see what happens after earnings.
I made 50% on the Weekly $71 FB put in one day. Today would be a great day to buy the $68 FB call. Perhaps catch a swing back tomorrow. We're oversold on the Ukraine crisis.
I have a lot of BTH calls for tomorrow. If it rallys honestly I'm set up to make hundreds of thousands. If not I'll be trading FB haha.
The losses of promoters in Visalus has been steadily declining this year. If there was ever a turn around quarter this is it. The expectations are sooooooo low and the trends show this is likely to be an inflection point in the promoter trend.In March they lost 20,000 promotoers, in June they lost 13,000, and in September they lost 8,000. There will be a quarter where there is growth. I think because they had the Body by VI event that was an opportuity to add promoters. There grew into Germany and Austria....more promoter growth opportunity. You couple this to the slowing losses and tihs could be the quarter where there is growth again, and that should make the stock price explode upward.
Hey there you are. Well I can assure you of this....unless there are so new circumstances I haven't anticipated, this is my last endeavor with BTH. If they cannot grow promoters or revenue at Visalus this quarter, then I'm not interested anymore. I did my capital allocation. I decided how much I'd risk. This is my limit.....then move on.
BTW I did the FB trade. I made about 50% in one day last week then I cashed out before that upgrade. I wish I had gotten back in that day but I didn't. There are lots of other trades to make if this one doesn't work out.
Why is it so quiet here? Normally right before earnings people would jawing back and forth incessantly. It's eery :) Come on people say something!
What I don't really understand about pyramid schemes or more accurately the worry about pyramid schemes is that often makers of a goods sell to distributors. Those distributors sell to retailers. Retailers sell to consumers. What is fundamentally different about the inventory risk a distributor or retailer has i.e. the risk of getting stuck with inventory they can't sell, and someone who participates in MLM as part of the distribution chain? That's what I don't really understand about Ackman's argument. Anyone who buys goods and then sells those goods at higher prices takes on inventory risk. Why there has to be special protections when it's an MLM is something I don't fully comprehend, because it seems pretty illogical. I don't see the differentiating circumstances.
We'll know very soon if they turned this ship around and Visalus is a growth business. The options are trading nicely on the call side so other people are looking for upside too :)
I'm as bullish as anyone but that will not happen. The promoter count at Visalus is 49,000. I've never seen the quarterly promoter growth greater than 20,000. The absolute best you can hope for this quarter is 70,000 promoters. It will take a year or more to get back to 115,000
It affects it in the sense that no matter how well BTH does tomorrow the HLF news of the FTC investigation tempers any enthusiasm for the results. Thanks FTC for your PERFECTLY timed announcement.
This whole Ackman notion is a diversion. There is NO investigation of BTH. And for those concerned about the investigation at HLF, it's gone no where for over a year. So for anyone trying to draw an analog between what's going on at HLF, or more accurately NOT GOING ON at HLF, it's bogus. BTH will sink or swim this quarter on the performance of Visalus.
This stock is about the growth and in particular what is going on at Visalus. The expectations are sooooo negative right now. They have lost so many promoters over the last year. But those loses have been slowing, and with some of the events they had this quarter, I believe that promoter count can rise above 49,000. If Visalus is a growth business, there is about a $150 million payment to the founders of Visalus that disappears because Visalus can do a qualifying IPO. $150 million is $10 per share in debt obligation that can disappear with a growing Visalus. That's $10 of upside on the stock on just that one premise alone.
The shorts have not gotten any evidence to cover their positions. If they get it this quarter, you CAN and I emphsize can see one of those events like about 4 years ago where the stock rallied $15 in one month. I'm looking forward to Thursday and I'm expecting a result that beats expectations.
I think the shorts will in retrospect realize that even having the opportunity to cover at these levels was their once in a lifetime opportunity. There is no reason to push your short trade further unless you think there is a bankruptcy filing in the future. The stock is at a valuation that is lower than anything you can find in the whole market.
The expectations are already at a level that expects the worse. How does it get worse from here? It probably can't. So why be short? For further downside you need a result that is worse than expected, but that's nearly impossible since the market is pricing in a terrible scenario. It wont take much to BEAT expectations.
Any promoter total greater than 49,000 and this stock is going to zoom. Watch that number in the earnings report. Growth is what this stock needs and any indication there is growth going forward and the whole pendulum swings the opposite way. Right now everyone is expecting sales declines and promoter reductions. If that doesn’t’ happen the shorts will be scrambling for the exits, because the whole premise of the short trade will have been invalidated.
I'll take a big swig if we win. I'm as bullish as anyone but we need the management team to excute. If they do then we're going to get a massive upward move. The tea leaves say they are in fact executing. We'll know in a couple days if they did.
Bill Ackman is acting in his own self-interest. He bet against a company and he was WRONG. That's life in the big city. Now he wants to whine and try to get his high powered friends to help him out. Phony Baloney. Not to mention if you read and reported what Ackman is going to do accurately he is going to attempt to talk about fraud in CHINA! Because Visalus is soooooo big in China you uneducated chimp :)