Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation Message Board

netlosstoo 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2016 12:42 PM Member since: Feb 24, 2003
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    PPC is JBS piggy bank

    by snogreen Apr 28, 2016 6:10 AM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Apr 28, 2016 12:42 PM Flag

    Snogreen
    Back of the envelope … JBS 75% ownership of PPC is worth about $5B which is about 65% of JBS ~$8B market cap … while PPC sales of $8B make up about 20% of JBS ~$41B sales … so for JBS remaining $3B market cap … JBS has over $30B remaining sales for more than a 10 to 1 sales to price ratio…. That is some huge huge huge huge sales leverage … so yes I would not be at all surprised to see JBS use those $’s to buy back their own stock ….

    Either that or to help settle government fraud and corruption allegations :)

    JBS is a high risk triple or nothing stock in my mind… maybe even quadruple or nothing … will be an interesting year for JBS as they are forced to slow down and work on maximizing the value of their recent acquisitions. ... and avoid jail time

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Apr 26, 2016 12:22 PM Flag

    USDA U.S. red meat and poultry forecast report for April dropped their egg price forecast for NY eggs by about 45 to 50 cents for the rest of the year. Their outlook average range is now 85 to 92 cents through September then 106 to 114 for Sept to Dec.

    Sounds about right … maybe a bit optimistic.

  • Reply to

    Total USDA chicken and egg report is now out

    by dairyeggs Apr 8, 2016 11:35 AM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Apr 19, 2016 11:07 PM Flag

    buylow ... higher inputs like the recent corn spike is actually quite good for CALM .. it discourages producers from keeping marginal hens at the ends of their cycles ... it is much more important to have higher egg prices than lower corn prices ... i am quite certain the lower egg prices are with us for a while ... probably longer than most think ... and I believe they will have a huge effect on EPS ... but not convinced the stock will plummet ... CALM is kind of like Deere ... everyone knows egg or corn prices are bad ... the bad news keeps coming ... but they also know these are industry problems and each of these two companies are tops in their industries ... My guess is CALM trades in a somewhat flat to lower range until the industry fundamentals catch up to it again in a year ... two years ... five years? ... ten?

  • netlosstoo by netlosstoo Apr 11, 2016 11:05 PM Flag

    Finally might clear out some of that excess Smithfield pork ... maybe more exports to China ... leaving less supply and better prices here in US ... hog prices need a lift ... then get that shipping route to Cuba going and SEB will be golden

    ""Pork Shortage in China Leads to Soaring Local Prices and Increase in Imports""

  • Reply to

    Total USDA chicken and egg report is now out

    by dairyeggs Apr 8, 2016 11:35 AM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Apr 8, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    So the March 1 hen numbers were 299 million ... there are still empty barns in Iowa from bird flu ... about 14 million ... and there is new housing for cage free being built by CALM and other producers ... not sure what that number is but maybe another 10 to 15 million more hens. We could have capacity for 325 million hens by year end.

    So if you think 70 cent USDA SE L is bad today with 299 million hens ... think of what it will be in another year!

    The 17% rise in hatch will affect the layer flock in five months, but if you look at the hatch numbers from the last seven reports they have all been double digit increases y/y. There are more hens coming online every month and will be for the next five months. If hen numbers go down, it will be because producers are leaving their barns empty or terminating flocks early. But with low feed prices why terminate early?

    Anyways, dark days ahead. But it is always darkest before dawn so if you wait another two or three years the industry will take care of this problem.

  • Shell 1323 up 3.7% from last week
    EP up 4.8%
    Specialty up 1.3%
    Industry needs:
    - Exports
    - Grocers to appropriately price their eggs to move … some are not
    - A reduction in hens …hen numbers appear to be going the other way … unless bird flu

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Apr 4, 2016 2:52 PM Flag

    35-40 cent feed cost per dz. …. 25-28 cents raising …. 17 to 22 cents processing and other… then add admin … and the market for generics is 70 to 73 cents … hmmmm … you might say generic egg prices don’t matter … but part of the reason specialty egg prices have done so well over the last few years is because generic prices were so very good…. it was not that much of a stretch to buy specialty … I do not expect UB SE L to average over $1.10 over the next full year ... lets hope CALM is selling more and more on "cost plus" JMHO

    AJ_PY008
    Atlanta, GA Mon. Apr 04, 2016 USDA Market News

    Daily Southeast Region Eggs


    Prices are 22 to 24 cents lower on Extra Large, down 21.5 to 22 cent on
    Large and Medium. The undertone is steady.


    PRICES TO RETAILERS, SALES TO VOLUME BUYERS, USDA GRADE A AND GRADE A,
    WHITE EGGS IN CARTONS, CENTS PER DOZEN.

    PRICES DELIVERED TO WAREHOUSE:
    RANGE MOSTLY
    EXTRA LARGE 70.5-95 72-75
    LARGE 69-86.5 70-73

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Apr 1, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    When was the last time we saw April 1 UB under a $1? .... starting to remind me of the 1998-2002 egg market

    NW_PY005
    Des Moines, IA Fri. Apr 01, 2016 USDA Market News

    Daily South Central Region Eggs


    Prices are steady. Next week's asking prices are 24 cents lower for Extra
    Large, 22 cents lower for Large, and 21 cents lower for Medium. The
    undertone is barely steady to weak

  • Reply to

    Rose Acres

    by netlosstoo Mar 30, 2016 4:29 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 30, 2016 5:56 PM Flag

    Good point .. heating costs will be much higher for cage free compared to conventional ... and winters are definitely milder in the south

  • Reply to

    Todays egg prices as reflected by Urner Barry

    by eggtrader Mar 30, 2016 10:54 AM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 30, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    CALM does have the cash ... but doesn't it kind of hurt that they have worked so hard to build up this nest egg ... and now it could cost them maybe $1 billion over the next two decades to convert all of their production to cage free ... if that is what happens ... and assuming they spend about $30 a bird ...

    All this expenditure and they end up with a much less efficient production cost per dozen ... and that extra costs gets passed on as a regressive tax on the non-1 percenters.... have we properly weighed the bird rights v. human rights? ... doesn't matter the ship has sailed.

  • netlosstoo by netlosstoo Mar 30, 2016 4:29 PM Flag

    Does anyone else get the feeling RA will come out on top after the cage free movement?

    CALM will be there at the end ... but they might not be #1 ????

    CALM's primary market is southern states and it is my prejudiced opinion that they will not be as quick to accept cage free as some of RA's northern customers

    I might be wrong on that??

  • Reply to

    Cage Free Movement

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 2:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 30, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    What do we really know about CALM specialty egg sales?
    1) The price is relatively inelastic. It stays around $2 …. so far.
    2) CALM buys a large number of their specialty eggs from third parties. Based on average outside egg cost per dz, my guess is half.
    3) CALM is adding cage free production. See 10-Q
    4) CALM is paying about 26 cents per dz. for marketing specialty eggs including franchise fees. I thought that number was more fixed, but it went up this last Q with the increase in dz sold
    5) It costs more to feed and raise specialty hens. It is probably more than most think.
    6) Grocers, restaurants and food service customers are demanding more cage free

    What do we not know about CALM specialty egg sales?
    1) If customers will follow through on their promises to buy more cage free. Grocer and McD get all the glory of saying “we’re going cage free” producers take all the risk.
    2) If prices for cage free will stay at $2 considering the supply coming on line over the next year. CALM, RA, Hickman’s, Rembrandt (currently on hold) …etc.
    3) How many cage free hens CALM owns.

    Tradingmarkets post is very good and the reasoning for being in the stock is a good long-term reason. I believe Q1 2017 specialty and co-pack sales will be close to 45% of CALM sales!

    For those who found CALM because their stock screener says CALM will yield a 3% dividend next year, they will likely be disappointed.

    JMHO
    FYI … when CALM uses the EB feeding formula the sale of those eggs is part of specialty revenue. CALM pays a franchise fee to feed and market EB eggs (under admin). CALM is a member of the EB Coop and gets a patronage dividend each January based on EB profits including CALM fees paid; this is the other income amount. In addition, equity specialty egg earnings from JV’s with Hickman and RA will likely go to other income … but should be significant next year.

  • Reply to

    CALM THE GREAT BEAR SCENERIO

    by netlosstoo Sep 24, 2014 1:51 AM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 29, 2016 9:53 PM Flag

    As foretold in Part V.... After the plague of locusts there will be egg Utopia ... but only for the survivors

    " .... we could have a period of more eggs while this phase in occurs, which could then be followed by a shortage of eggs as the old facilities are discontinued."

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 28, 2016 9:07 PM Flag

    add a www. to see the shell egg Easter season inventory compared to prior years ... explains a lot .. current inv is 1275 - 1000 30dz cases ...
    ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pyaeaster.pdf

    recent hatch numbers indicating layer hen numbers will keep rising ... those eggs will go someplace ... i'll do my part but i notice my store is keeping eggs above $2 per dz .. how are producers going to clear inventory if grocer does not help ... i need to find a wal-mart

    So .... it's still march ... we all know that May and June are historically the worst months for egg prices ... i guess the questions is what will change for the better any time soon? maybe if producers start emptying houses for refurbish and transition to cage free? but they better have long term contracts because while retailers promise transition ... it is not guaranteed.... exports? Mexico doesn't seem to want as many eggs and Canada is going cage free as well ... at a loss

    AJ_PY008
    Atlanta, GA Mon. Mar 28, 2016 USDA Market News

    Daily Southeast Region Eggs


    Prices are 10 cents lower on Extra Large and Large, down 13 cents on
    Medium. The undertone is lower....

    PRICES TO RETAILERS, SALES TO VOLUME BUYERS, USDA GRADE A AND GRADE A,
    WHITE EGGS IN CARTONS, CENTS PER DOZEN.

    PRICES DELIVERED TO WAREHOUSE:
    RANGE MOSTLY
    EXTRA LARGE 92.5-119 94-97
    LARGE 91-108 92-95

  • Reply to

    FYE 2017 EPS guesses with Q3 and Q4 2016 guesses

    by netlosstoo Mar 14, 2016 6:38 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 28, 2016 4:37 PM Flag

    Great Q … EPS beat was not a surprise … but how they did, it was …. They did it with better than expected generic egg sales … so y/y UB was about 15 cents lower on average but realized price was a couple of cents higher … so something has changed from last year … maybe still a bit of bird flu hang over or maybe they have shifted more contracts to cost plus.

    In any case it’s time to level up … we are entering the wild wild west of cage free production level … the armor you have purchased in previous levels still works but you will need expensive new armor and the monsters will do more damage in this level ... know your monsters before you press the continue button.

  • Reply to

    Cage Free Movement

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 2:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 26, 2016 1:57 PM Flag

    There is a tidal wave of brand new cage free production coming on line.

    CALM and others are earning a huge premium on their cage free egg sales, which might be reduced by this wave, but it just might decimate the market for generic eggs.

    We have generic USDA SE L likely trading at or under a buck next week and this tidal wave is not even close to hitting the shore.

    CALM and other big egg producers are trying to corner the market on cage free eggs. Sell Mortimer sell!!

    After this tidal wave hits, the industry will begin to replace generic egg production with cage free … bird numbers will drop fast and the wave will be sucked back into the ocean.

    It is my opinion that in the wake … the industry will have fewer hens … fewer producers with the large producers making huge gains in market share.

    This will be one of the few times in the last 19 years that I will not be getting a CALM annual report in my mailbox.

    However, it has been a very long time since I have been this excited about owning CALM at a very reasonable price.

    This opportunity might be coming in the next five years.

    JMHO

  • Reply to

    Good buyposition

    by larry.zito Mar 24, 2016 12:51 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 25, 2016 2:53 AM Flag

    Trading ... it's not as important for the specialty dz sold to go up as it is for the specialty dz produced to go up ... CALM does not give us these numbers ... but as mentioned S. texas cage free is online and other bolt on cage free is being added. They are working on getting the Red River cage free JV going ... the Red River LLC will likely be under other income. ... should be a good quarter

  • Reply to

    FYE 2017 EPS guesses with Q3 and Q4 2016 guesses

    by netlosstoo Mar 14, 2016 6:38 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 25, 2016 2:47 AM Flag

    egg trader ... I posted these guesses 10 days ago ... if UB SE L is under $1 for a whole quarter the EPS might be about 20 cents or less ... assuming they are still able to get $2 to $2.10 for specialty eggs ... i think CALM might beat the EPS guess on Monday ... maybe by 20 cents or more .. they should have their S. Texas cage free operations running for their first full Q ... it should add maybe 5 cents net y/y to EPS .. also have a big EB patronage dividend in other income ... specialty egg prices are still good ... if I was a trader i'd sell into any earnings spike on monday ... but long term holders should not even be reading these comments ... they should just have their shares under their mattress for their kids.

  • Reply to

    low prices

    by toabtogo Mar 21, 2016 10:00 AM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 24, 2016 12:05 PM Flag

    Thanks egg trader ... I agree ... absent another bird flu I think the industry is heading to sub $1 UB SE L from about May to mid-August ... maybe longer ... this seems outrages, but I'm thinking the industry will add 20 to 30 million laying hens by next December from the current 299.4m on March 1

  • Reply to

    low prices

    by toabtogo Mar 21, 2016 10:00 AM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Mar 22, 2016 5:33 PM Flag

    Someone should have told the hens they didn't have to produce so many eggs for Easter!

PPC
26.91+0.51(+1.93%)Apr 29 4:00 PMEDT