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Sanderson Farms, Inc. Message Board

netlosstoo 45 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 25, 2015 5:48 PM Member since: Feb 24, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Rebuilding the hen flock

    by netlosstoo Nov 5, 2015 7:07 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Nov 25, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    November 1 hens were 279.5m about as expected. With Oct hatch at 50m! up 12% y/y and eggs in incubators up 25% y/y .... replacement seams to be going as expected ... back to normal and then some next summer

  • netlosstoo by netlosstoo Nov 22, 2015 10:37 PM Flag

    Expecting a nice rebound in Beef .... 2.5% to 3% ... packer margins have been amazing
    Chicken will be ok ... small birds have done ok ... retail prices have held up better than big bird prices
    processed food margins s/b good ... pork too

  • Reply to

    Egg Stock vs. Market

    by brandee555 Mar 6, 2003 10:40 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Nov 21, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    The stock buyback issue made me think of an old post from 2003:

    "and now we get to buy in at 80 cents on the $. That must irk Fred and Co."

    In the 1990's CALM was able to buy up smaller producers for book value. In 2006 they absolutely stole Hillandale was it? for book value. After the best 10 years egg producers have had there are no good book value purchases left. Michael's was sold for 2.5B!! and they have about a third of the hens of CALM, and everyone says ... ya but they are a "value added" processor ... which is B.S. cause their average margins were not even close to CALM's over the last ten years ... that is the opposite of value added ... But CALM is now trading above 3 times book value and almost 1.5 x's sales ... the question for CALM is would you rather buy back CALM shares or another company for 3 times book or less? Plus any acquisition would likely be of battery cage production, which could be obsolete in the next two decades.

    Or would you rather construct new cage free facilities, which is an investment at "book value". The inevitable move to cage free egg production will require an S-ton of $$'s from industry producers ... Old houses can be converted ... but they won't be as efficient as new construction.... CALM has done a great job of acquiring companies, but the next twenty years of CALM growth will likely be from the construction of new cage free facilities. It is my feeling CALM will be gaining market share with this growth, and that they will need every penny of that grain bin full of cash to accelerate away from the pack... again ... new construction is an investment at "book value" .... CALM shares are not .... JMO.

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Nov 13, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    So if SE L USDA is $1.93 and prices for next wee are 19 cents higher UB SE L must be about $2.25 or so?
    Can we get another 20 to 30 cents next week? ... steady to firm undertone seems to indicate maybe not? but egg trader would know better.

    Des Moines, IA Fri. Nov 13, 2015 USDA Market News

    SHELL EGGS: Daily Midwest Regional Eggs

    Midwest delivered asking prices for next week are 19 cents higher for Extra
    Large and Large and steady for Medium. Producer prices are 4 cents higher
    for Large and steady for Medium and Small. The undertone is steady to firm.

  • netlosstoo by netlosstoo Nov 6, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    pork segment not as bad as thought it might be ... commodity trading and milling had a loss due in part to mark to market adjustments and bad debts ... this biz is low margin but they usually make a few $$'s with it.

    hopefully china draws some of the excess pork supply out of US through SFD ... not all US pork is compliant with China standards.

  • As of October 1 there were 276.8m table laying hens in U.S.

    Hens increase when more pullets are placed than spent hens removed

    I use ISU for guidance and they indicate y/y pullets placed to be
    Oct 21.5m v. 22.2m
    Nov 21.1m v 19.9m
    Dec 19.2m v. 19.1m

    ISU has not projected January and February but based on their formula of 47.5% of 5 mo. ago hatch with 95% livability their projection will likely be:
    Jan 21.2m v 18.0m
    Feb 22.25m v. 19.7m

    So based on hatch there will likely be little meaningful addition to hens from larger than normal hatch until January. It looks like the industry may be placing about 2.5 to 3.5m more pullets each month after January.
    The current gains in the hen numbers appear to be from fewer spent hens pulled out of production and less mortality. This is because the hen population dropped 10% with the bird flu. We don’t, at least I don’t, know the age of the hens lost. If they were older hens they would be due for replacement … younger hens lost were not scheduled for replacement until later. Some of the current hatch is going into empty barns.

    So if we guess that normally 20m hens are pulled out of production and we have already lost 10% of those hens then maybe 2m of the pullets are going into empty barns. Producers may also be adding a molt to extend production for some hens which also might add to the hen numbers.

    So my guess is that 2-3m hens will be replaced with normal hatch each month and additional hatch will increase that number. So November 1 hens might be 279m and Dec 1 might be 282m and Jan 1 might be 284 and Feb 1 might be 290 and March 1 might be 295 and April 1 might be 300 and May 1 might be 305

    ISU predicts January 1 flock will be 290.7, but that seems aggressive. Looking forward to the September ISU report.

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Nov 5, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Undertone is higher ... so spot price is moving up ... waiting for sharply higher undertone, which hopefully will be next thursday or friday ... still need more space between this years prices and last years.

    Des Moines, IA Thu. Nov 05, 2015 USDA Market News

    SHELL EGGS: Daily Midwest Regional Eggs

    Producer prices are 6 cents higher for Large and steady for Medium and
    Small. Midwest delivered asking prices are steady. The undertone is
    higher. .....


    LARGE 157-166 159-162

  • Reply to

    what is wrong with this stock?

    by greeneggsguy Oct 29, 2015 3:06 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 30, 2015 8:47 PM Flag

    greeneggs ... here is a scary thought ... and i have no idea that his is the case but....

    what if the negative effects of the underlying expansion by CALM and others adding hens to the U.S. population is being masked by AI .... what if consumers have found substitutes and are reluctant to go back to real U.S. eggs ... what if consumers are being conditioned to eat fewer eggs ... it's Holloween so scary is appropriate

    ... no place to look at spot egg prices except with Urnerbarry subscription ... just have to look at usda reports and take the undertone hints ... sharply lower ... weak .. steady ... full steady ... higher ... sharply higher

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 30, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    egg prices have not been what we expected ... but the seasonal climb begins next week ,,, i wonder how imports have affected egg prices ... i read where Rembrandt has used significant import eggs ... anyways ... even if you believe CALM is fairly valued or maybe over even valued it would be hard to be short right now in the face of one month of rising egg prices... as egg trader mentioned this Q will not have the drag of "cost plus" pricing for specialty and non specialty eggs as the first part of Q1 ... this should help offset the lower average egg prices .. but agree analysts should be adjusting EPS guesses.

    Des Moines, IA Fri. Oct 30, 2015 USDA Market News

    SHELL EGGS: Daily Midwest Regional Eggs

    Midwest deliverd asking prices for next week are 16 cents higher for all
    reported sizes. Producer prices are 5 cents higher for Large and Medium.
    The undertone is higher.

  • netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 27, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    POST bought Michaels for about $2.5B .... CALM is valued at $2.5B ... which company would your rather have? Michaels had negative tangible equity at the time ... CALM has about $17 / sh tangible book value ... one that buys 75% of its eggs and produces 25% or one that buys 25% and produces 75% ... POST is very reliant on outside suppliers CALM is trying to control more of their own supply ... Egg products as processed by michael's has been a very low margin biz ... If CALM got into egg products their margins would likely go down ... CALM wants no part of low margin businesses like egg products or third party purchases for resale

  • Reply to

    Chicken and egg report

    by netlosstoo Oct 24, 2015 12:11 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 27, 2015 7:14 PM Flag

    good points superiorbs ... your $2.75 guess sounds about right to me ... Europe mandated cage free /enriched colony production a few years back .. it surprises me they now have low egg prices ... i wonder if they allow non-compliant eggs to be shipped into France and other EU countries.

  • Reply to

    Price drop explanation :

    by tlyeiter Oct 27, 2015 1:39 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 27, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    or egg prices

  • Reply to

    Chicken and egg report

    by netlosstoo Oct 24, 2015 12:11 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 26, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Retail price lag is interesting ... prices were slow to rise ... adding to demand ... now slow to drop ... reducing demand ... i see the same with retail chicken prices ... but the undertone is now higher so we will see the beginning of the rise in egg prices through the first part of December ... might be too little to late to save a $3 quarter for CALM

  • Reply to

    Any reason for today's decline ?

    by bakercater Oct 26, 2015 10:37 AM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 26, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    egg prices

  • netlosstoo by netlosstoo Oct 24, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Only 276.8m layers at Oct 1 … why are egg prices not $2.50 plus?
    Rate of lay lower … producers likely holding onto hens a bit longer than normal

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 23, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    So how much is the AI premium worth if egg prices average 30 cents more than the prior year for the next year? Answer … about $3.31/sh (820m dz produced X 30 cents per dz X 65% for tax affect / 48.3m shares)

    So in Q1 we realized about $2.40 premium and this Q2 I expect about $2 of premium. So the question is if the stock trades at $60 and it was $40 before AI ….

    So you probably also need to factor in the potential round 2 of bird flu ... and what would CALM have increased by w/o AI …. And the momentum it gives CALM to expand future operations …. and the probability of mad cow outbreak ... Etc etc etc .. Unfortunately RA and the other big players are also getting rich .... even the little guys are being encouraged to keep on keeping on …

    on current egg prices ... full steady indicates to me that the egg market is about as low as is will go before Xmas and the market should be moving higher soon ... just not much for next week deliveries.

    Atlanta, GA Fri. Oct 23, 2015 USDA Market News

    SHELL EGGS: Daily Southeast Regional Eggs

    Prices are steady. Asking prices for next week's deliveries are trending
    unchanged on all sizes. The undertone is steady to fully steady.

  • Reply to

    FYI egg prices

    by netlosstoo Oct 2, 2015 5:10 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 21, 2015 2:48 AM Flag

    Full steady .... words to get a bit excited about

    Des Moines, IA Tue. Oct 20, 2015 USDA Market News

    SHELL EGGS: Daily Midwest Regional Eggs

    Producer prices are steady. Midwest delivered asking prices are steady. The
    undertone is fully steady.

  • Reply to

    Up like a rocket...Down like a rock.

    by pianotzz Oct 20, 2015 12:49 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 20, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    Stephens downgrade. They are likely looking at the stock price rise while egg prices fall.

    CALM needs prices to be more than just 30 cents higher y/y to justify the AI premium included in the stock price.

  • Reply to


    by drjohnlong Oct 15, 2015 1:16 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 18, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    input costs will likely be the same next year ... contrary to that recent SA article chicken prices do matter ... that article used the GA dock price to make the point that chicken prices don't matter. GA dock has much less volatility and is NOT a good indicator of SAFM revenue per pound. UB b/s breast meat prices are in the lower $1 range compared to near $2 at the end of september y/y ... leq Quarters are about half last year's price ... don't think for a second that that won't hurt SAFM top line and margins. Chicken prices matter. SAFM may likely record a loss for Q4.

  • Reply to

    We broke 60!!!!!!

    by robertlouismock Oct 16, 2015 6:56 PM
    netlosstoo netlosstoo Oct 18, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    The Thursday UB quote is key for week ahead delivery prices ... agree with eggtrader ... the quote should be higher next Thursday ... as it certainly can't get any lower ... can it? in any case will it be too little too late to save the $3.18 analyst estimated Q2 EPS? and maybe egg prices and earnings don't even matter for the next two weeks ... stock price may depend more on the anticipated spike and how high it will spike up ... very speculative.

73.64+0.64(+0.88%)Nov 27 1:00 PMEST