ok. it was statistically significant. you make my point. where on the website or elsewhere in PR or otherwise is it explained what the benefit is over current protocols. just because it is SS doesnt mean anything. other tests could be more significant. cheaper tests. who knows. when i say mygn has a marketing problem, this is what i mean among other things. so is it a critical advance or not? we do not see medicare rushing to approve reimbursement do we? the website for prolaris goes wildly out of the way to avoid all but the most bland statements.
dude. that is entirely inappropriate and may be actionable by Reed. if you call a company a scam, you better be prepared with some evidence or you risk liability yourself.
i think you are being harsh. i am not sure that the company has a full time staff however. it may be just a couple of people full time to keep the lights on and answer phones. i do not perceive that there is a lab or much R&D going on. i do think it is clear that this year is not turning out to be the year they wanted. however, next year the pieces seem in place.
with the investment in mnst by coke, the sector is spotlighted like it has not been in years. the fact that jsda is down on almost no volume with not the slightest bit of market interest in an exploding sector, is a sad condemnation of the brand at this stage. after two years of efforts in the greatest bull market in US history they have managed to drop sales consistently while still losing money, selling more shares, taking on debt and losing distribution and margin. however, most critically, the brand was not re-invented for 2014. it is now a nostalgia brand with failed products, poor product reviews and comical conference calls devoid of any actual data like same store sales. coke is buying into monster for the energy drink market. jones completely failed at introducing an energy drink for the exact same reasons it is floundering now. this suicidal, tautological belief that if they produce something, its cool and people love it. newsflash before filing bankruptcy: they don't. what is so so astonishing is the refusal to do anything about it, other than hire people who think jones is still cool and who worked there back in the day when the street thought it had potential. then the street saw reality.
maybe an entrepreneur with a clue can come in and act like jones is a start-up in 2014. fiat? seattle seahawks? same thing. i assume these deals were done because of executive perks. i bet at 5:01pm the offices are dark.
i bet on weekends, the mountain bikes are all deployed and the offices are dark. as they lose millions and coke snickers at a dying company.
that is not why stock is up today. it is up on takeover speculation in the sector because coke is buying a piece of monster. monster is a great, great company that has essentially gone from a 200 million dollar cap to 11 billion in the time that reed has essentially been flat. they are brilliant marketers. my complaint with reed is not with product, which is excellent, but with almost every other aspect which makes the company amateurish. i believe that reed has potential to be a billion dollar company, but at this rate it will take 30 years. mnst did it in a few years with wonderful execution.
i meant the approval by medicare is built in. i would expect growth over a period of years from prolaris to be substantial. i perceive it to be important, however, i have not seen a clear discussion on its benefits over current protocols. in fact, check the website for prolaris. it is decidedly unclear what the benefits are over current testing or not testing. i find that odd. i am sure others do as well. and hence maybe why they mention little about the test in their calls.
it will double. certainly. however, it may take 3 or 4 years. listen to the call. you get a lot of: after 25 years, we realized.... You look at other companies and they understand what to do to be successful now in very few years. Chris has to make every mistake for himself. every wheel has to be re-invented. So it causes all sorts of problems. marketing mistakes, production mistakes, capacity mistakes, on and on. one would think they would learn a lesson and hire professionals. they apparently have not. hence the last national ad mess and the utter confusion surrounding it. i am hoping a proper marketing agency gets a contract from reed and they are able to make the company professional in appearance, instead of looking like its run out of garage. the national ad was just embarrassing. like it was made by crazy louie's cadillac on route 12. come on down people for crazy arbor day prices.
if overseas initiatives are successful, the stock will see good growth over time. they must do a better job of educating people. globally.
would you kindly stop doing that? it is becoming ridiculous. prolaris approval is fully built in to the price now. there is no white knight coming. the ceo is selling stock. the company has a number of initiatives under way. none are going to surprise significantly. market perform is a good call for the next six months. and if they beat by 2 cents again next quarter, the stock will drop further. grub hub is worth more than mygn now. how about that free market for you.
at this point the product is vaporware essentially. however, i do think eventually this management team will start producing results. could it see 75 cents this year? sure. will it see $2 in the next year? i believe so. it does seem like its being run as a bit of hobby business. maybe the guys have such big resumes that they only devote part time to working on this business. seems that way, i agree.
there is little short term catalyst for the stock at this price. meldrum gutted that with his guidance for 2015. it was obvious he guided low so they could beat. now when they obviously beat they have to crush it or the stock will not react. so i think you can sell and pick it up cheaper. it is pretty much dead money for a long time. and the massive short position wants to see it drop. and the longs have been given nothing to look forward to. it is a biotech and will not move quickly except rarely. or sell calls.
further point in case. chris was asked why the growth in ginger ale? his answer was i dont know. we did not do anything to promote it. infuriating. a marketing manager with proper experience would tell you almostl exactly what was going on, and would have the products at the forefront of the industry. they actually have people who know how to find out why and what is selling. imagine a marketing guy at general foods saying "up 35%? dunno boss".
then they hired a retread from 2004 that actually believes people like the brand. despite sales data that says people think the brand and products are not worth purchasing. two years into the vaunted turnaround and two people ask questions in the cc and one is a complete idiot. impressive.
why? could the tepid reaction be because top line sales slowed considerably? they reached profitability from cutting trade spend and marketing, not from growth --- again. so the profit was made on the accountant's desk. 18% growth. that was pretty poor. kombucha sales really slowing already? GT is laughing at the numbers REED posted. laughing. and that is why kombucha was barely mentioned.
i am hoping that the "deals" we keep hearing about actually mean something transformative. as it stands now, the company needs transforming desperately.
funny he hinted at getting rid of the agency who did the national ad. how about getting rid of the person who hired the agency? maybe hire someone with an actual marketing background. who does a national ad as a test then complains there is no way to track marketing spend effect? come on. stop acting like a friggin lemonade stand.
i thought there was a a huge and silly disconnect in the call. the guidance and the explanation of business prospects were completely contrary and baffling. the analysts must have been #$%$ am i missing here?
it was a poorly executed, rah rah, disingenuous call. how did they not bring up ummm prolaris medicare rate delays until it was asked as a question? and an analyst, short or long could easily justify a price of $18 - 22. even lower at this point, if the guidance is taken seriously. it doesnt matter what the stated estimates are. it is all about the whisper number. and they are just creating fictions. they also ignored the short position which is the elephant in the room. yet they completely assured the shorts, that they are safe and their investment was well executed by saying they expected almost no growth next year.
that is so so poor of an analysis. so if there are a ton of longs in a stock, it must go down? a price has to go against the majority position??????? last quarter the same set up was in place and the stock was crushed.
i guess i was wrong about it going under $1. the 95 cent price today was a misprint i guess.
it will retest the 95 cents and it will either hold or break lower. still very highly valued given the current business. i do not know where the floor is this year, but i do not think it will revisit the 52 week low, unless tax loss selling arrives before some significant traction in the market.
and the reason for the lack of buying is obvious. things aint going great. they have not been going great. why buy when you know you are going to lose money.
miscue did say that they expected to erase the credit facility. are you suggesting she is misleading us? i dont think she would say that honestly. she is bereft of vision for the brand, but i dont think she would lie about financial information like that. i expect in the november the credit facility to be paid to near zero.