alan, you and i called this game. i posted the original FDA compalint letter. and i will tell you this too. i doubt there is any possible way the fda approves the gen 2 device any time before 2018 or 2019. this company will wind up having to file chapter 7-11 within a few months, in my opinion. really too bad. and the legal flailing is unlikely to have any effect. this is done. wrap it up. or are they going to just rely on the drone division. you just knew when you saw the pounding ads on tv for the stock. you just knew. i got out with a nice profit over a dollar.
how much better does it get than fda approval, red cross, PR? it doesnt . so the market is saying that at this point in time, there needs to be better earnings visibility for it to trade higher. revenue and earnings have to catch up a little to the market cap. either that or something major needs to change fro plan. like an accelerated approval process for rbc in us or eu.
calm down. it is not really the market they are going after. they could get the fda approval by sitting in the office an filing paperwork. they dont really - you know - sell stuff. selling is a low profession. these are professorial types. they file things with agencies. issue the occasional PR. take salaries. chicken is more their market. unless no one from the chicken business calls them. then they can contemplate the pencil sharpener and maybe file for veal or pork approvals. remember the pr about hiring a director of sales and adding sales professionals? no, no you wouldnt. and then you wonder how sales could decline for a new product. jeepers. it is a mystery.
this is awful. what an oversight by amateur retailer 7-11. they couldn't retail soda if you paid them to do it. such an easily avoided error. glad you caught it. sigh.
i dont disagree with your reasoning. however, if jones is able to kick out an average of 2 cents a share per q going forward with some visibility, the stock is not overvalued. if. what cue has failed to do is build a base of products that are actually in demand. i sincerely believe she thinks jones is popular. this delusional ceo state has killed many a company. "we are the best, we are popular, the sales numbers just dont reflect it." like chris reed referring to all the other kombuchas as #$%$". but his is the only one with declining sales.
well i hope you are right in your confidence. i think there is a reasonable chance that reed starts to rebound in anticipation of the fountain program and breaking through to a new market. the cc is a study in incompetence and lost opportunity. i cannot imagine how you take an easy lay-up business like this and turn every single thing into a disaster. every single thing. i cant for the life of me understand how nothing has been addressed yet. i expect that the chain restaurant is very nervous and i hope enough has been done to satisfy them. i love the - after a year we had the fountain nailed down. then we discovered some stuff and nailed it down even more. it is almost like a comedy writer is writing a script for him.
38 million is that math over 12 months averaged over stores and seasonally. the key is 8000 stores is a lot of stores. and six sodas a day isnt much. if funding is smooth from 7-11, then you can make soda pretty fast. it is not hard to make or ship. you misunderstand the economy of scale of 7-11.
you realize that you have been wrong for a long time right? you realize your sell jsda advice has been awful.
well that is interesting. the question will be what happens after june. this is the great danger to the investor in a private label enterprise. you have little or no control over your destiny and the brand you build isnt your own. this puts a lot of pressure on jones to follow up with something more growth oriented. it also explains investor reluctance to pay more for the shares.
in order to maintain a reputation, i have looong thought jones better have a some fine products on the increasingly sophisticated market. jen has not realized that people will gravitate to quality. she still thinks that marketing and branding will rule sales. cool labels, not craft soda. t-shirt giveaways not quality ingredients. this is what budweiser and miller long thought too. and now that market is in slow decline like a greenland glacier. jen hitched her wagon to a glacier and a dying strategy. it failed, so now she is retreating to private labelling for 7-11 which would not know a craft from a draft.
kickstart. second year of sales. $250,000,000. google it. how much of that does 7-11 sell? a lot. so a caffeine based soda for 7-11 was exactly what they wanted from jones. $100 per week in sales per store. is 38 million dollars retail. do i think jones can sell 8 bottles of soda per day per store? with proper marketing that is not a lot for 7-11 to sell.
jones doesnt ship to 7-11 stores. no one does. 7-11 has massive and coordinated internal distribution. distribution costs are a few cents a bottle. liquor case cost in urban areas through a large distributor are as low #$%$ a case. 7-11 does their own distribution and bears the bulk of that cost. maybe it is costing jones $2 a case for logistics and handling. maybe less. i love the resident moron explaining to 7-11 how to sell soda. i guess the higher the stock goes the more desperate the analysis. jones has done plenty wrong. they are not losing money on 7-11. if they were, 7-11 would have nixed the deal. that is what they want huh? bankrupt suppliers for a national program.
well, what was expected already was the usda approval of chicken and the start of the trial. "PURE anticipates first sales into poultry processors (a new $350+ million market segment) in calendar Q2 2016". that appears to be in danger of delay or otherwise. it is increasingly unlikely that the 45 day trial can be set up and submitted and sales commence all in one 90 day period. i can not imagine otherwise what surprises there could be that would actually impact the bottom line here. i would love to see something along the lines of actual sales, instead of declining revenue.
i am skeptical. hopeful. chipotle you might think would do everything in its power to prevent another incident. that stock is headed to $250. if they have another incident - likely - it is headed to $150.
sometimes the ref calls a homerun a foul. bottom bottom line is if jones is only making $1 a day per store average over the course of a year, that is still $8k a day. if the product is permanent for 7-11 they are making an extra 3 million a year. you decide if that is gross or net. then we need to know if this is a permanent product or not. private label is a dangerous game ultimately, but certainly jones had to do the deal. a year from now we may find that it was a brief moment of sunshine. cue needs to shine up the jones brand, and hopefully it gets taken out. although, they dont have a signature product and sales are miniscule now for each SKU.
i do fondly hope that the market cap can double for jsda, so my prediction - at least momentarily- can come true that jones market cap exceeds reeds. right now from a peak of 7-1 it has closed to 2-1. thanks to the 7-11 deal and chris reed's monumental incompetence.
they probably have 30% gross margin on the product. you need to know velocity and re-orders to understand the numbers. how is your buddy doing with the products? ordering again or not?
yes, but by the time number come through they will be bankrupt and the doors will be closed. darn. i wish you weren't so accurate in your predictions. i could have avoided the tax consequences of my shares being up 150%.
nice work. that is a lot of soda frankly. if you have the contacts, you should follow how long it takes to sell through and if they re-order it. that could last a long time if they persist in not supporting the sales. re-order rates are critical.
the author of the article does not know what a craft soda is frankly. boylan is a different product than jones. i think boylans actually cares about ingredients. also, boylans makes its own soda. as opposed to filling out co-packer order forms to an anonymous factory. jones has utterly completely nothing to do with craft. they like the description "premium". what is premium? cane sugar? like coke outside the usa? i wish that cue had used the three lost years to become craft. she didnt. the 7-11 ingredients are awful. but 7-11 doesnt really care about ingredients, so its ok. they care about low cost. jones has managed to make low cost sodas for them. it is the exact opposite of premium, but jen does not care in the least about that. she is counting on people not to notice.