that is quite negative of a view. eventually it could trade there. to me it has been amazing that you could take a recognized brand and so wildly ruin it, losing sales and money at every turn. a mildly capable management would have rebuilt this mess long ago. talking rain mentioned in the conference? 3 million to 300 million in sales in 4 years. very good management. that is the difference.
if it goes lower, it is going much lower. and the trend is down now. i do not think that it can stand up to the shorts any longer. it looks like a breakdown to $28 is likely. at the worst, it could drop to maybe $24 in the absence of bad news. chart looks horrible.
i read an interview in seattle times with ceo of talking rain about sparkling ice. 2.7 million in 2010 to 300 million in sales this year. that is actual demand and great management. and lack of ego. now i understand that chris is the greatest beverage entrepreneur ever and the 19% yoy kombucha growth is amazing. but maybe someone from talking rain could chat with him about 19% week over week increases and how they handled it.
my criticism is there is no business plan and has not ever been. where is the growth? this has been a business which has been designed to pay salaries not be a growing public company. where is the sales team? new markets? nothing of the sort here. they had a good quarter because of de-icing equipment backlogs. so what? did they expand the business add accounts? did they have a conference call?
all rhetorical. why hasnt the company doubled in sales in the last two years? easy. management didnt bother to try to grow revenues. very comfortable. see long term chart. horrible performance.
the move was to sell the first week of the year and wait til it fell 50% after horrible earnings. i think in the latter half of next year, reed might gain some traction, but i do not see the event on the horizon that brings it to the next level.
what are you even talking about. i would love to have been short. even to have sold calls. i am long the stock and very disappointed in the way the company is handling itself. look at a 15 year chart! ugh. as for carol, she left on her own after turning negative on mygn for whatever astral reasons she had. mygn's last q was a mess and the guidance was flat. for all the excuses, that is one thing wall street hates. zero growth is a sin. the money will come back when mygn says they have fixed all the problems preventing growth.
i dont know about superior products. that is not my thinking. the fda problem is a profound one and the subway problem i think is going to be profound unless they do somehting quick. the company looks like a part time operation with no sales force. it does not look like a 20 million dollar operation. they have a big problem here.
small cap? option priced?
it is not a small cap. not close. option priced? how do you figure. please explain your valuation. the stock is wildly high in its valuation. wildly high. if it were a private company it would sell for maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe 2 -3 million. and probably not that. this is a company that did what $30k in revenue last quarter? i know waiters that make more. they have no business plan left. it turns out they never actually had one at all. and subway was just a ruse. tax loss selling you say. no, this is selling based on the new reality. its good that subway saved the company, as this looks really bad.
what are you even talking about? the anticipated blow out quarter? in what fantasy world? the tsunami? in what fantasy world?
2007 reed is at $7 a share. after 7 years, you only lost a little. but have faith. next year the margin will be slightly better and sales will be up 15%. and they should make another penny or so a share. they need to hire someone with a vision for how to grow a business. reed is checking into what kind of advertising is best. this has been a year long project. it is too bad no one out there has any expertise in advertising beverages. however, a few years of original research should help. hmmm. so hard.
actual genius i bought under $3. but unlike some people who think this is a cheerleader board, i am realistic. hence i am not a buyer, and i wish i sold this morning. this is dead money for the next 6 months and could easily drop to under $5 again. there seems little upside to the guidance and they simply dont make money yet and they dont move very fast.
a hobby business. the moronic analysts asking silly metrics like transportation costs being up 2%. adorable.
it is all about pennies here and pennies there. there is no vision for growth. there is a vision for continuing the garage mentality. happy to be number #2 thinking. slowing sales already in natural foods for kombucha. at least they have figured out that they are a soda company, not a kombucha company. 15% growth is really not impressive. its fine. very nice. in 5 years the company will double in sales size at that rate. maybe it will make a little money. microcaps happy with 15% growth and nil earnings don't tend to be a great investment. i get a lot of self-satisfied attitude, not a lot of we want to be the google of natural soda.
earnings? you mean non-gaap EBITDA earnings with a double twist cost shifting flufferwangle? the reason the entire market is where it is relates to non-gaap earnings being acceptable. non-mark to market valuations of assets? lol. earnings are whatever they want them to be.
and they are not "behind schedule". there no longer is a schedule. they may never be able to submit the data the fda will want. this is the fda we are talking about and it may require trials that could take years and millions to prove. otherwise they would have left the applications in. they fled from the fda.
business. they made projections for the last q that were utterly wrong. they are just flailing.