their margin may be higher but volume is minimal. we know this because we know jones sales numbers and they are miniscule. maybe walmart sales are a couple million a year nationally for jones. and jones isnt a national brand. so walmart could not care less i believe about jones. further walmart is losing market share due to relative high price of items compared to dollar stores. walmart's emphasis is competing at the low end of price, not in the "premium category". btw, there is nothing premium about jones soda. jones declares itself things that dont exist. they declare themselves cool, popular, premium. they are none of those, except in their own mind. no gimmick product stays cool for 20 years. their sales are in free fall. the ingredients are chemicals.
i thought the current thinking was the opposite. what does that even mean? and why would walmart care about a soda with such tiny sales volume and high cost?
the negative about the subway investment was the price. they gave away below market shares to an insider. you have the ethical problem there which is large, but an everyday part of the corporate world. you have the issue of lack of confidence in pricing so cheaply. you also have the statement that it will last a year. that means a ton of losses and more dilution in a year. the stock price adjusted for dilution did shoot up!!! 25% dilution and the price stayed the same. so there is your exploding price. the market cap is 40 million and they expect 4 million in annual sales. you think the cap is low at 10x sales? and they expect millions in losses over the next year.
i would imagine the sales they expect are from a very few buyers. you do not see this catching on yet and that is an ENORMOUS risk. this is not a new technology. it has been on the market for maybe 10 years. they need to prove success and growth and a path to profits. but in the meantime share count is EXPLODING! so they make up for it by issuing insiders cheap stock. you may well invest here and find they transferred your money to their accounts. like they just did with subway. ka-ching. thanks for dough.
the one thing or two that changes the company from small time to big time. frustrating indeed. the cracker barrel gift shop thing is so odd. but it will lead some additional sales. ultimately not meaningful, but fine and inkeeping with needing to keep up growth. still thinking small.
the uptrend? the two day $1.50 uptrend? i mean seriously. without actual significant news, the stock is not going anywhere. the longer the medicare prolaris decision takes, the less likely it gets approved imho. or it gets approved with very considerable constraints limiting cases. will that strongly affect the stock? or is the stock only dependent on the myrisk panel at this point? i do not know, but i dont think there is much enthusiasm for mygn at this point. clearly the shorts still feel they have a lot in their favor, so the billion dollar bet remains.
btw, i think the company does have a future. i think the current management is better than previous and more focussed. however, the fact that they need so much additional capital for the next year is a bleak indicator of increasing losses. they do not believe higher sales will lead to profits over the next year. that means something is out of joint.
well, the most important thing to jones is that the cans and bottles look good. what goes inside the package doesnt matter too much. maybe that has something to do with complete and sustained collapse of sales. on another note, the amazing news that ceo j. clueless bought shares way below market. wow, such faith. no purchase at market but free money is ok. now 42 cents on the way to the 30s again.
lol. great analysis. and a sweet job ignoring the facts and history. i think we all understand a qsr announcement is coming. however, there have been no other announcements. the stock is valued at a whopping 40,000,000. or 10x expected revenue. that is very high. has the stock been going up? nope. maybe someday. overall the stock is nearing a 52 week low. it is a long trend. if i was short, i would be a happy pig this year as the trend down has been profound. but i own the stock. so does subway guy. except, in insider trades he bought it for pennies on the dollar. i had to buy at market.
you paid $6 for a beer in a bar. you were not in a grocery store. at $4 a bottle for kombucha, i am not buying any, except maybe once a month as a treat. gt is priced less and is in a bigger bottle. Reed could not market his way out of paper bag as we have seen clearly with their laughable marketing materials. national ad was so amateurish. there is a reason why GT is a likely billion dollar company (or more?) and Reed is a 80 million dollar company.
last time i was in fairway i almost bought the GT as it was so much less.
last year they attributed increased losses to the halloween flavors. it is so so sad to see this pathetic attempt at producing a few cents in sales. jennifer clueless. it is a novelty product. what quality is associated with novelty products? soon its clearance 50% off soda. i have news for you jennifer. the naturals/organic market does not terribly appreciate the #$%$ beverage company that also throws out a semi-natural product. the whoel food shopper is attracted to brands that are committed to the lifestyle. jones is not committed to a thing. custom photo labels on calcium triphos#$%$ colored salescollapsing junk and stripped. ok. that is what you sell. or in this case dont sell. how do you market that? you dont. you cant. and you fail. the entire soda category for artificial puke in a bottle is in decline. even coke and pepsi. but you keep on selling pumpkin polysorbate.
a little surprising at this point. i assume the news is built in. and there appears to be no other expansion of sales.
i think the price breaks down to the 80s extending the long down trend.
so they did not plan properly and the plant is at capacity. now they have to expand that capacity to keep up with orders although the incremental orders despite overall slowing top line growth. ok. made a nice trade opportunity. can buy again under $6.
it appears that the street is pricing this for bankruptcy. and i would think that might be helpful for the business at this point. they are not acting like a bankrupt company with stores opening, but the market cap is essentially suggesting a chapter 11 reorg. that would shed the debt. they dont seem to have a chance otherwise. not sure how this ipo game is legal. and i am very surprised there is no class action yet. seems like a no brainer.
am i missing something?
best market i know of, btw. employees are not happy campers from what i hear.
the stock has been in a downtrend since april. one could argue it is a consolidation or base building period as well. the short position has been very safe, but complacement, preferring not to push the stock further down in trade. i find that odd and a bit concerning. they seem very confidant. management appears to have badly misread the timing of medicare reimbursement for prolaris. they also are not publicly building a case for the test, which is clearly a strategic decision to lay low waiting for a decision. i doubt the delay in announcing reimbursement is a positive. it is a big decision by medicare and it will cost billions and involve all sorts of competing companies. they may have to allow half a dozen tests, idk. the only way to set a standard as to what gets covered as effective and what does not may take years of study and consideration. hence my concern over myriad's silence and obfuscation of the data. at this point i would think, that reimbursement is going to be denied pending further study and the setting of better comparative standards. this is based on no particular insight, just surface observation and a lack of excitement apparent from mygn themselves, the NYT review of the field, the mygn website. etc.
go that high again? lol. yes, jones at a billion dollars. just need to overcome a few small obstacles like plummeting sales. the only thing that can help the stock is speculation and illiquidity of the stock itself creating value distortions. private sale price for jones would be a few million dollars now. thank good ness for illiquidity. at $5 jones is worth a quarter billion dollars and would need to generate 12 million in net profit. lol. ok. sure. polysorbate 80 must become a popular thing. the morons at annies dont have a clue. jenn cue knows the real interest is in walmart bulk sales of fufuberry.
however, they do not have the marketing capability, distribution or expertise to make it pay. another kombucha sku which will cannibalize another kombucha sku. if they had the right people on board maybe it would be a real producer. it is an appealing category though and it would be nice if it was a good product. i would drink it from time to time. i dont buy a lot of kombucha because of the high price.