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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

newbie_45220 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 23, 2014 5:37 PM Member since: Aug 4, 1999
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  • newbie_45220 newbie_45220 Jul 23, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Not much short for FB, they are long gone...

  • Reply to

    IS FACEBOOK A SHORT AT THIS PRICE?

    by jhperk2003 Jul 23, 2014 4:50 PM
    newbie_45220 newbie_45220 Jul 23, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    I am not sure if it is a short. however I am pretty sure it is NOT a buy anyway.
    1. The total market cap is about 190B, which is about 1/2 of Google, while the revenu is about 1/4 of google.
    2. The revenue growth are mainly from the ad price increases (more than 100%) and I don't think they can increase their price to another 100%.
    3. When they keep growing, they will need to gain market share from google etc. so they are more close to google's revenue growth rate than we expect. (which is about 20%).

    While enjoying the wonderful number, the ugly will come in the future (maybe in one years)

    newbie

  • Reply to

    Random survey of 100’s of FB users..

    by pimpdawg69r Jul 23, 2014 1:33 PM
    newbie_45220 newbie_45220 Jul 23, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    The revenue comes from their ad price increase (100 CPM and 30% CPC), not for the user click number. The user total click number is about the same.

    So they are fine right now as long as the big company is willing to pay more for their ads.

    newbie

  • newbie_45220 by newbie_45220 Jul 21, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    I think FB will beat the estimate in Q2 earning.

    FB's ad price has inceased above 100% for CPM and about 30% CPC,so as average, its revenue will have about 60% increase, which is a easy beat for 55% estimate.

    The key question is in the future, how long FB can enjoy this kind of price increase.

    Some waring signs:
    1. If you look at the CPM and CPC number, both the number of click-through and click-for like are flat year over year. So there is no much growth as total numbe rof clicks for all users.
    2. The price of FB's CPM is about 30% lower than google's search price, and both the company's CPC price is about the same (plus or minus 10%).

    So while I am sure FB will have a wonderful Q2, I am not sure the share price of FB will as impressive as the Q2 number.

    newbie

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