Well, you missed some keys in your story:
After the 2012 secondary announcement, EXEL's trading price was down to $4.85 on Aug 6th (20% drop), $4.58 on Aug 7th (6% drop) and $4.28 on Aug 8th (7%.drop).
This time (2015), after the secondary offering announcement, we only see about 1-2% price action right now. So the offering price will be more likely around $5.88...
Well, we can only speculate:
1. They don't have any offer on the table and don't expect it any time soon.
2. They need cash to pay off some of their obligations.I remember that they may have about $60M due next couple of month.
3. They need cover some expense for possible cobimetinib launch.
Our only hope is that maybe the big boy already knows and the large amount of short interest can offset some of the offering.
I have to admit that I were wrong, I did not expect that they file the secondary so quickly...
Now, as I am think about it, it may be a good idea to add more if it goes below the offering price....
It is estimated that Roche is giving away about total $800M away in 10 years for cobimentinib (with about $1B peak annual revenue). and the cabozantinib is expecting about $400M peak annual revenue.
So my guess of the takeout price is about $2B ($10 per share).
Well, I read it about 2 years ago when they announce the partnership:
1. Exelixis will get abut $100M for the approval.
2. Exelixis will get 50% of the first $200 million of US sales (decreasing to 30% of sales over $400 million).
3. Exelixis will get about 15% profit from outside the US.
Maybe just my memory is wrong?
They don't need raise any after Cobi approval, Roche's milestone payment will be enough.
LOL, not really, it is just about a revenue and profit projection. Remember it is a low float stock, and the daily volume is more than the total share outstanding. GPRO is just a trading vehicle now, there is nothing about the company itself. The market just want you to get excited (for BOTH the long and short) and then they can make money.
Does any analyst need fact to raise price target? Citi just twist its model at little bit to satisfy its client o keep the rice up.
At current price level, there I nothing about the stock fundamental, it is just a supple and demand story: someone has the mean and ability to move the GPRO stock higher. So before they are down with it, it will be this way for a while
No sure about that. at current price point, it can go either way as the hedge funds want. it is essentially just a game: Bulls make money, Bears make money, and Pigs get slaughtered.
I think you misunderstand the FED, it is the FED who want the Banks to do that, so that the stock market can be high enough to support both the economy and moral. Now the economy is recovering and FED now is stopping the money print hoping that with the economy and salary raise, the people can sustain some soft landing of a bear stock market.