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Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. Message Board

newelectricfan 41 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 18, 2014 11:04 AM Member since: Jun 27, 2005
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  • newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 18, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Couldn't agree more. My PT on a buyout (done now, before next earnings) would be something like $23 per share (or for a $750 mln market cap), if it fits well in the product set and helps the acquirer sell more product. Given GIMO's sales momentum, not a far-fetched idea. If, however, they start beating every quarter and dramatically increasing sales, then probably around $31 a share (or a $1 bln market cap). Both scenarios are dramatically higher than here. But I do not see this company going beyond a billion dollar market cap, either via organic growth or acquisition, simply because the TAM for the product set is earmarked to be just $3 billion for the next couple of years. The best strategy for GIMO is to bolt on to help a CSCO or IBM or some other company address a bigger TAM, with visability a strong bolt-on. Just my two cents. And I believe, that is where it is going. Certainly, to the low 20's with further progress. And that is a great return from here....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just announced today. Goldman Sachs resumed coverage on Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) with a Buy rating and a price target of $103.00. All recent coverage pointing to well-above current price levels. The sell off of PSX was way over done....by a long shot....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    North Run Capital is Big Buyer of Shares

    by ceoandbod Nov 17, 2014 6:26 PM
    newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 18, 2014 7:06 AM Flag

    147% increase in their holdings in the prior quarter is nothing to sneeze at, you are right. Very interesting development. For those that don't know North Run: "North Run's investment approach seeks to identify and capitalize on securities trading at values meaningfully divergent from their respective fair values by integrating: (a) an intensive fundamental research discipline, (b) a "private equity" valuation methodology, and (c) an event-oriented perspective." (Taken from their corporate boiler plate.) I personally think the event-driven scenario for GIMO is the one that will play out -- a lot of players in this space, and there is going to be an inevitable shakeout. GIMO makes for a tasty morsel....and at a much higher price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 17, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, GIMO is in a "show me" state -- and if they hit their numbers next Q, then they will move back toward their old highs in the 30's. I do not see a "lift off" like you suggest. Given where we are, and my lost cost entry point, I would be happy with a buyout anywhere in the 25-35 range. As you say, if they have another successful quarter, they will have the time to build out and develop long-term shareholder value (especially with the $134 mln in cash on hand). If not, and if this next Q returns to not doing well, they will NEED to seel. That won't put them in a 60 or 75 price range. Just my two cents. If however you are right and it goes interstellar on the price -- I would not be disappointed with being wrong....either way, I see the future direction as up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Cisco, IBM, and many others are starved for growth. integrating GIMO's tech into their offerings can help differentiate them, and drive increased salesl. GIMO is at a bargain price. I say it gets taken out in the nexxt 6 to 9 months.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 13, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    with the low P/E, decent quarter earnings, continued share buy back, and very tasty div, it makes no sense to me, either. At these levels, i am starting to nibble and am adding to my position. If it should fall under 70, then I will be buying heavily.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • NDLS starting to heal, then Catterton dumps 1.5 mln shares on the market.....at the expense of the common shareholders today of about $28 mln in market cap. Nice going. good vote of confidence from the lead director's company. Not that any officers, directors, managers, or other NDLS folks bought any shares during the stock down turn. Noooooo. Most just sold. And now, Catterton takes a dump on the market and floods it with more shares. Hmmmm....makes me wonder how optimistic management really is about the coming year....

  • Reply to

    Catterton-Noodles

    by tweid04 Nov 7, 2014 6:47 AM
    newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 7, 2014 7:03 AM Flag

    Nothing like the lead-director's firm stabbing the common shareholders in the back, just as soon as the shares start to heal. Catterton are snakes. I noticed they didn't buy on the dip -- hell, no one from management or Catterton did. They just lost my support.

  • newelectricfan by newelectricfan Nov 6, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    RBC Capital maintained their "sector perform" rating for Noodles today. They also raised their target price from $21 to $25. RBC Capital notes, "We are raising our price target from $21 to $25 based on our outlook for accelerating same store sales (SSS) growth and higher EPS in 2016 and beyond."

  • Second chances don't always come, and for NDLS, this is simply IPO 2.0 with the return to a strong growth story. The negative comments (many of them well deserved after that horrible Q2 conference call, that even the CFO in yesterday's call said they could have done a better job with communicating). The story has clearly shifted back into the growth category, and, based on the CC and the numbers, their key growth initiatives are taking on strength. Catering pulling in stronger numbers than management thought....mid Atlantic and DC metro improving...SSS back to growth, with upward guidance on 2015 (while many others in the industry are guiding down....), margins to dramatically improve (being pulled down this Q for the right reasons -- investments in marketing and the roll out of key initiatives).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great quarter

    by tweid04 Nov 5, 2014 5:24 PM
    newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 5, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Project flat because of Q1 and Q2. Q3 and trend on Q4 return to trend line growth. You are looking in the rear-view mirror. The market prices forward, not backward. And listen to the call on WHY margins were down -- investments in marketing, catering roll-out, etc. Look at gudiance for margin contribution and EPS growth for next year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great quarter

    by tweid04 Nov 5, 2014 5:24 PM
    newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 5, 2014 5:47 PM Flag

    And great forward guidance. The conversation has returned to growth.

    For 2015, management expects the following:
    • 12% to 14% unit growth;
    • 2.5% to 4.0% comparable restaurant sales growth;
    • Restaurant level contribution margin of 19.0% to 19.5%; and
    • Adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 20% to 25%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Me like!

    by newelectricfan Nov 5, 2014 4:17 PM
    newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 5, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    Sales were not flat. They were up 1.7%. They are also upping their guidance to between 2.5% and 4% for 2015. Stop looking into the mirror for the polar vortex impact on Q1 and Q2.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 5, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    Sales were not flat. They were up 1.7%. They are also upping their guidance to between 2.5% and 4% for 2015. Stop looking into the mirror for the polar vortex impact on Q1 and Q2.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Strong confidence in the guide-up for 2015. (while other fast casuals are guiding flat to down....)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CEO just mentioned that the orders and dollars involved are turning out to be larger than expected, with bigger dollars per order than expected.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A lot of us are in at these lower levers and more than happy to watch the growth over the next few years. Not a lot of people who held through the down turn willing to sell at this point, either. Good luck shorts. Very strong CC. Great outlook. Growth returning to Mid-Atlantic region. 2015 outlook looking very strong. Strong tail winds forming for comp sales, with the strength of new opened stores, which continues to grow and remains strong. Pending another polar vortex, 2015 is lining up to be very strong.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    my take they manipulated sss growth rates

    by cashback_7 Nov 5, 2014 4:11 PM
    newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 5, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    good luck with that.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • newelectricfan by newelectricfan Nov 5, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    People can whine all they want about missing 2014 or being flat -- but given that all but CMG and a few others are revising down and going FLAT, I just say NDLS management did it early. Their strategic initiatives are paying off, and 2015 sees them returning to solid growth.

    Great 2015 outlook.

    For 2015, management expects the following:
    • 12% to 14% unit growth;
    • 2.5% to 4.0% comparable restaurant sales growth;
    • Restaurant level contribution margin of 19.0% to 19.5%; and
    • Adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 20% to 25%

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The State of ARCP

    by sharkmm73 Nov 3, 2014 7:27 PM
    newelectricfan newelectricfan Nov 3, 2014 9:15 PM Flag

    You bring up a major issue here. If they raised capital while knowingly falsifying the financials-- and it really doesn't matter how big or small the fraud would be -- then that would be securities fraud. No wonder the FBI is involved at this point. The fines could be HUGE, people. And the consequences for those involved. And it could all be the string on the sweater that unravels the whole thing.....this is going to be absolutely amazing to watch unfold.

    Sentiment: Hold

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