If that is the kind of return you want, I think you are much better off investing in NVIV.
But that is not where I'd put all your remaining capital if I were you, just a small percentage of it.
For the rest, learn to trade an instrument not dependent on the success or failure of an individual business.
first, you are recommending nefarious buy an individual stock, which is the highest risk investment.
but that's not bad enough. you go further and recommend he buy a decaying instrument to control that stock. so you are increasing his risk one hundred fold, and putting him at risk of losing everything if those options expire worthless.
if apple's business suffers an adverse event and stock price is impacted accordingly nefarious will lose everything, and not have a cent to his name.
at least if he only bought the amount of apple stock he could afford, he'd have a chance of recovery with time, but the options put him at risk of total loss of his capital.
I have read so many irresponsible options recommendations like this on yahoo msg boards that I have to assume more than half the people posting here are options brokers.
the only valid reason anyone who is not a professional options trader should buy options is to hedge equity. the rest is just gambling, and the last thing someone who has lost almost all of his capital should be doing is gambling.
Whatever you do, do not invest in an individual business after the setback you have suffered. you need to decrease risk, not increase it in a last insane gamble to make back what you have lost. following that path leads to bankruptcy far more often than to a recoup of capital.
only people who will blow out are those who are using leverage. which means those who trade using options or margin.
as for the rest, even their whole account is invested in SVXY, they'll be fine, but they'll have to be patient.
personally I'd rather be invested in SVXY than stocks when the crash comes. It will get hit much harder, but it will also rebound faster. but the main thing is to be prepared for such a event by having ample cash to deploy.
you've been done a lot, but haven't gone anywhere, so far as I can see.
the answer to your question is already before you eyes. VXX doesn't just go down. It can go up quite big and it can also remain elevated for awhile in certain circumstances no one knows when it will happen.
shorting instruments like VXX and UVXY you are among the most exposed to fat tail risk.
In other words, it just takes a few minutes or a few days to bring you down to zero. Shareholders might be bleeding bad, but they won't be totally decapitated like VXX shorts.
so that's the risk here, a very big risk which few are willing to take. which is why most are too afraid to mess with volatility funds and so few who do understand them.
Agreed. From a fundamental standpoint, selling the stock based on the pediatric downvote makes no sense.
AH trading is much easier to manipulate price. A small number of shares bought or sold can result in a major price swing that brings in panic buyers or panic sellers.
What we could have here are scared shorts anticipating a big rise tomorrow and trying to manipulate the price down before market open.
thanks for adding your perspective. good to know with your experience in the field you are also bullish on THRX. I agree with your point about GSK reps bringing success to the launch. I am not too worried about what short term traders do with this stock because I know in the longrun GSK is going to buy the company at a big premium to the current price. I don't know many safer plays for the patient investor than this one.
As of now it looks like the shorts are still in control here.
Down almost $2 AH.
Crazy. THRX is already ridiculously undervalued at current levels and they're dropping it down even more for the pediatric, which is a fairly small percentage anyway?The current market is pretty tough for anything less than "perfect" in stocks.
May not be too significant though since it's AH.
We'll have to see what happens during regular trading hours tomorrow.
that's the exception. most stocks that surge before fda review, end up being rejected and losing 30-40% the next day. Just another variation of the pump of the dump. I Guess you didn't own AVEO before Tivozanib was reviewed by the FDA. Stock surged the day before and everyone said it was a slam dunk. Good history lesson for you there. (I still like AVEO by the way, but I think it will require patience before its full potential s realized --- or Roche buys them out).
anyway, that's why I'm very glad to see THRX went nowhere today.
And here's another good thing. If the FDA smiles at us tomorrow, I think short covering could take us back to $30 in a single day. It's about time too.
traders don't really care about what the fed says. the fed statement doesn't move markets. economic considerations don't move markets. traders move markets, and they are just trying to outsmart each other. they are motivated by fear and greed.
if you were watching closely then you would have seen the market began to rally before the minutes were even released.
fact is this market is like a pressure cooker right now. bears have been holding the lid down very tightly, as the pressure builds. since 2014 and the termination of QE, a very large number of stocks have have sold off more than 50% (the definition of a crash, by the way). The major indexes have haltingly moved up but the general climate has been stagnant and the mood bearish for a long time right now.
How much longer can this stagnation continue? My guess is not much longer. How significant today's rally is I don't know. It may just sell off tomorrow, like all rally's in recent history, as more and more stocks are silently sold off in the background of the major indexes whose moves are publicized on TV. Or who knows, maybe this signals the resumption of the bull run.
At some point in the future I expect the market to go on a tear again and do a repeat of 2012. The stifling climate of fear and "hit and run trading" that has reigned since the end of QE is creating a lot of tension, and that tension needs to be released. Release is imminent imo.
You notice all the euphoria posts of a few days ago have all been replaced by bashing posts today?
Probably the very same crew at work too. Before they were buying. Now they are shorting.
Business as usual on wall st
Unfortunately I think you are right.
All,the pumpers who were in on the scheme and so vocal in those few days of green have now completely disappeared.
That's why you never buy when a stock is shooting up, only when others are selling.
It's unfortunate but aveo is not unique, all low priced stocks are targeted in this way.
Still think aveo has huge long term potential though, so I hold my shares. Most yahoo msg board posters are traders looking for a quick buck, so their euphoric posts or bashing has to be taken with a very large grain of salt.
Truth is nobody knows anything except insiders and they never tell a straight story to outsiders
But based on all publicly available information right now this stock is the ultimate steal
Any short who isn't rushing to cover is either omniscient or stupid
Take advantage of his good fortune to request a loan so you can double down at these prices. Tell him you'll buy him a tesla for his trouble when pgn is on the rebound.
what is there to say? This isn't a stock msg board full of pumpers and bashers talking their book
That's one of the great things about focusing on volatility. Less drama.
People here talk wehen they have something to say. Sure there are a few crazy forecasters and some weak attempts at manipulation but overall it's smooth sailing,
Those of us who have been buyers since xiv hit 26 are quietly counting our money
12 seems pretty remote from these levels,
What's your thesis? How do you see us getting there without a Bo?
Idix was trading around 3 for a very long time.
Merck came out if the blue.
Bought it for 24, if I remember correctly.
Nobody was expecting it.