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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

newpikachu 66 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2015 4:59 PM Member since: Dec 28, 2012
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  • Reply to

    SNTA

    by bookerone2000 Apr 15, 2015 6:14 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Apr 16, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    eastofeden,

    although I'm aware you may only be flaming me, I want to clarify something about what I said, just in case anyone else is as confused as you are about the point of my post.

    My post is not intended as an "invest like Warren Buffet" guide to the market. I don't recommend people invest like Buffet, because actually I don't think anyone can invest the way he does except for himself. However, I believe that it is possible to buy a biotech stock using as much diligence as Buffet would have used to make one of his investments. You have to invest in what you feel comfortable with - for some people that is biotech, and some people do very well at it. Investing in biotech companies is no more gambling than investing in individual issues generally, in any sector of the market. In fact it is possible for a diligent investor to make a MORE informed decision on a biotech investment than on a less diligent one who just throws his money into a bluechip.

    Seth Klarman, one of the greatest value investors of all time, routinely invests in biotech. And he is not a gambler. So what does that tell you? The obvious conclusion is that he thinks informed analysis and valuation can be done on any kind of business.

    But to return to Buffet: what you say about his investing style is valid, but it isn't the point of my post. The point of most post is to draw on one investor's experience to make a point about individual stocks generally: they fluctuate wildly. Buffet's point about be willing to hold through 50% downswings is a very important one for investors, because it is common, not uncommon, for stocks to have those swings. The OP said he was down over 50%, I believe, and my reply was in reference to his predicament. Being down 50% on a stock is no big deal, if you are confident in your thesis. Short term traders talk about it like it's the end of the world, and that's why I reference Buffet, who looks at it much more realistically and sensibly.

    Good luck with your investment

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SNTA

    by bookerone2000 Apr 15, 2015 6:14 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Apr 15, 2015 10:13 PM Flag

    Why not good? It's just part of the investing game. Buffet has said no one should buy a stock who isn't willing to hold it when it goes down over 50%. If you attach any importance to Buffet's experience as an investor then I think you understand that what he is saying is that a 50% drop in a stock isn't at all unlikely.

    What matters is where the stock goes in the longrun, and that's why you invest. You might be down 50% now, but what does that matter if you are up 500% a few years later?

    Which is a very real possibility with SNTA.

    Short term fluctuations are meaningless to an investor, because investors understand that short term movements in stocks are controlled by traders.

    Traders have no clue about business or stock valuation. Many of them don't even WANT to know what lies behind the ticker they are trading.

    Profitable investing is a test of patience.

    Nervous nellies who check prices every day usually sell for a loss or get out for a small profit. So they aren't around when the big move happens which makes longterm holders rich.

  • Reply to

    TO ALL THE REAL LONGS ....

    by cb_cb480 Apr 15, 2015 4:24 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Apr 15, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    The bears are shorts talking their book. Nobody ever knows what is going to happen tomorrow, but is down trending stocks that are totally crushed and threatened by bankruptcy bears always keep tight control of the msg boards. That's why well sized positions in distressed issues can pay off huge if bk doesn't play out, but of course you've got to have a strong stomach.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Apr 10, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    Alcoholics Anonymous?

  • newpikachu newpikachu Apr 8, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    The key sentence: "He has also prepared a significant number of expert and rebuttal reports and has assisted counsel prepare for numerous depositions and trials."

  • newpikachu newpikachu Apr 8, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    Everyone seems to be assuming settlement. That is not my take on it. Don't think the gov is going to give up that easily.

    If you read carefully you will see he has worked in cases of rebuttal. Seems more likely gov has hired him to rebut the case being made against them. They are being accused of fraudulent and unlawful taking. His job is to make their actions look legit.

    How he can succeed at that I don't know, but that seems to me the most likely reason he was hired, at the present juncture.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Apr 7, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    A couple pf other things: I recommend avoiding the leveraged ETFs - yes, the same ones which everyone here on Yahoo msg boards claims they are trading and making fantastic gains on. Avoid anything that uses leverage and looks like it offers a fast route to outsized gains, because you are far more likely to lose every cent you put into it than make the gains yahoo msg board posters boast about.

    I would also look at ETFs in more distressed areas as longterm investments and build a position in them over time. Right now, for example, that would mean a regional ETF like one focused on Russia.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Apr 7, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    nefarious, there are no miracles, unfortunately. risk management will serve you much better in the long run than expecting a miracle, though it's less glamorous.
    as you know, in my trading and investing I prefer to focus on volatility products. But that doesn't mean that's what you should do yourself. you have to find instruments you are comfortable with and feel confident trading and holding big positions in.
    Now there are ETFs for just about everything: commodity ETFs, volatility, country, sector etc. etc. What I recommend is getting familiar with the universe of ETFs and trying to papertrade those that you feel most comfortable with for awhile. You need to develop your own strategy through practice and experiment, which is why paper trading is a good exercise.
    The good thing about an ETF is that unlike an individual business it isn't going to go bankrupt on you. Some ETFs (like commodity) are more subject to wild swings, and you could suffer a big drawdown. But if you learn to trade swings on vehicles like this, you can make money a lot more safely and surely than betting on individual companies.
    Don't put all your funds into just one ETF. Even here, diversity is what will keep you in the game. I'd say have at least 3 you watch and can switch between.
    Anyway, there's a few ideas to get you started. Good luck.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Apr 6, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Don't be too hard on golfband.

    I'm pretty sure he meant .50

    he just forgot the decimal :)

  • newpikachu newpikachu Mar 31, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    If that is the kind of return you want, I think you are much better off investing in NVIV.

    But that is not where I'd put all your remaining capital if I were you, just a small percentage of it.

    For the rest, learn to trade an instrument not dependent on the success or failure of an individual business.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Mar 31, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    absolute madness.

    first, you are recommending nefarious buy an individual stock, which is the highest risk investment.

    but that's not bad enough. you go further and recommend he buy a decaying instrument to control that stock. so you are increasing his risk one hundred fold, and putting him at risk of losing everything if those options expire worthless.

    if apple's business suffers an adverse event and stock price is impacted accordingly nefarious will lose everything, and not have a cent to his name.

    at least if he only bought the amount of apple stock he could afford, he'd have a chance of recovery with time, but the options put him at risk of total loss of his capital.

    I have read so many irresponsible options recommendations like this on yahoo msg boards that I have to assume more than half the people posting here are options brokers.

    the only valid reason anyone who is not a professional options trader should buy options is to hedge equity. the rest is just gambling, and the last thing someone who has lost almost all of his capital should be doing is gambling.

    Whatever you do, do not invest in an individual business after the setback you have suffered. you need to decrease risk, not increase it in a last insane gamble to make back what you have lost. following that path leads to bankruptcy far more often than to a recoup of capital.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Mar 31, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    only people who will blow out are those who are using leverage. which means those who trade using options or margin.

    as for the rest, even their whole account is invested in SVXY, they'll be fine, but they'll have to be patient.

    personally I'd rather be invested in SVXY than stocks when the crash comes. It will get hit much harder, but it will also rebound faster. but the main thing is to be prepared for such a event by having ample cash to deploy.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Mar 31, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    you've been done a lot, but haven't gone anywhere, so far as I can see.

    the answer to your question is already before you eyes. VXX doesn't just go down. It can go up quite big and it can also remain elevated for awhile in certain circumstances no one knows when it will happen.

    shorting instruments like VXX and UVXY you are among the most exposed to fat tail risk.

    In other words, it just takes a few minutes or a few days to bring you down to zero. Shareholders might be bleeding bad, but they won't be totally decapitated like VXX shorts.

    so that's the risk here, a very big risk which few are willing to take. which is why most are too afraid to mess with volatility funds and so few who do understand them.

  • Reply to

    80% Asthma Population covered I'll take it!!

    by llabtechtwo Mar 19, 2015 9:31 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Mar 19, 2015 10:36 PM Flag

    Agreed. From a fundamental standpoint, selling the stock based on the pediatric downvote makes no sense.

    AH trading is much easier to manipulate price. A small number of shares bought or sold can result in a major price swing that brings in panic buyers or panic sellers.

    What we could have here are scared shorts anticipating a big rise tomorrow and trying to manipulate the price down before market open.

  • Reply to

    Asthma = more revenue .... back to 25

    by biotraderman Mar 19, 2015 6:55 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Mar 19, 2015 9:04 PM Flag

    thanks for adding your perspective. good to know with your experience in the field you are also bullish on THRX. I agree with your point about GSK reps bringing success to the launch. I am not too worried about what short term traders do with this stock because I know in the longrun GSK is going to buy the company at a big premium to the current price. I don't know many safer plays for the patient investor than this one.

  • Reply to

    Asthma = more revenue .... back to 25

    by biotraderman Mar 19, 2015 6:55 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Mar 19, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    As of now it looks like the shorts are still in control here.

    Down almost $2 AH.

    Crazy. THRX is already ridiculously undervalued at current levels and they're dropping it down even more for the pediatric, which is a fairly small percentage anyway?The current market is pretty tough for anything less than "perfect" in stocks.

    May not be too significant though since it's AH.

    We'll have to see what happens during regular trading hours tomorrow.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Mar 18, 2015 5:49 PM Flag

    that's the exception. most stocks that surge before fda review, end up being rejected and losing 30-40% the next day. Just another variation of the pump of the dump. I Guess you didn't own AVEO before Tivozanib was reviewed by the FDA. Stock surged the day before and everyone said it was a slam dunk. Good history lesson for you there. (I still like AVEO by the way, but I think it will require patience before its full potential s realized --- or Roche buys them out).

    anyway, that's why I'm very glad to see THRX went nowhere today.

    And here's another good thing. If the FDA smiles at us tomorrow, I think short covering could take us back to $30 in a single day. It's about time too.

  • Reply to

    What was so dovish in the Fed statement ?

    by emerging_mkts Mar 18, 2015 3:40 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Mar 18, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    traders don't really care about what the fed says. the fed statement doesn't move markets. economic considerations don't move markets. traders move markets, and they are just trying to outsmart each other. they are motivated by fear and greed.

    if you were watching closely then you would have seen the market began to rally before the minutes were even released.

    fact is this market is like a pressure cooker right now. bears have been holding the lid down very tightly, as the pressure builds. since 2014 and the termination of QE, a very large number of stocks have have sold off more than 50% (the definition of a crash, by the way). The major indexes have haltingly moved up but the general climate has been stagnant and the mood bearish for a long time right now.

    How much longer can this stagnation continue? My guess is not much longer. How significant today's rally is I don't know. It may just sell off tomorrow, like all rally's in recent history, as more and more stocks are silently sold off in the background of the major indexes whose moves are publicized on TV. Or who knows, maybe this signals the resumption of the bull run.

    At some point in the future I expect the market to go on a tear again and do a repeat of 2012. The stifling climate of fear and "hit and run trading" that has reigned since the end of QE is creating a lot of tension, and that tension needs to be released. Release is imminent imo.

  • Reply to

    Scammed once more...

    by arnold_for_california Mar 16, 2015 3:02 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Mar 16, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    You notice all the euphoria posts of a few days ago have all been replaced by bashing posts today?

    Probably the very same crew at work too. Before they were buying. Now they are shorting.

    Business as usual on wall st

  • Reply to

    Scammed once more...

    by arnold_for_california Mar 16, 2015 3:02 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Mar 16, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Unfortunately I think you are right.
    All,the pumpers who were in on the scheme and so vocal in those few days of green have now completely disappeared.
    That's why you never buy when a stock is shooting up, only when others are selling.
    It's unfortunate but aveo is not unique, all low priced stocks are targeted in this way.
    Still think aveo has huge long term potential though, so I hold my shares. Most yahoo msg board posters are traders looking for a quick buck, so their euphoric posts or bashing has to be taken with a very large grain of salt.

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