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iShares MSCI Philippines Invest (EPHE) Message Board

newpikachu 14 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Dec 13, 2012
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  • Reply to

    I almost just had a heart attack

    by thesheepshaver 13 hours ago
    newpikachu newpikachu 11 hours ago Flag

    nearly 1% down and the market hasn't even opened. When was the last time we had a similar percentage decline before open? I can't remember but it seems like forever.

    Can't believe some posters here are saying premarket doesn't matter. It's not about the time of the decline but the percentage of the move.

  • Reply to

    I almost just had a heart attack

    by thesheepshaver 13 hours ago
    newpikachu newpikachu 13 hours ago Flag

    this is gonna be a real humdinger of a day

  • newpikachu newpikachu 20 hours ago Flag

    valid points; and of course the future can't be known. however risk/reward here is highly skewed toward reward, with WLT trading 50% below book and an awareness that we are somewhere deep into the low part of the cycle, even if no one knows just where and when the coal rebound will commence in earnest. the big short money has already been made by those who had the foresight, and those players are long out of WLT for a huge profit. Kudos to them for taking the risk. But to take the risk of the short trade here is just plain foolish. Even if I was among those who seem convinced WLT is headed for zero (which I am not) I would still think it more prudent to open a long position at these levels; however would hedge it with a large number of OTM puts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • newpikachu newpikachu Jul 3, 2014 11:12 PM Flag

    Even the most conservative appraiser would not call WFM over-valued at this price, so the authoritative tone of your claim makes it seem all the more silly. Sounds like you need to ask your employer for a better angle for your soft bashing posts. In the unlikely event that you are really an investor, you need to get out your spreadsheets out and go back to square one. maybe you could contact someone at a firm who actually does appraisals and pay him for a bit of his time. this might help you o come up with a more accurate estimate. he may not have time for you though; at these prices he is probably too busy buying all the WFM he can and won't welcome your competition on the bid.

  • newpikachu newpikachu Jul 3, 2014 11:02 PM Flag

    What does that even mean, that WFM is an attractive takeover candidate at this price? You do realize that if WFM were bought out it would not be at this price, right? but much higher?
    What determines the price at which a stock is bought out are valuation considerations and shareholder interests, not the price at which a stock happens to be trading on any given day due to market fluctuations

  • Reply to

    management is running company into chapter 11

    by super.linux May 28, 2014 1:00 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Jul 3, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    So, in retrospect, how do you feel about having exited ANV on a day when it closed at 2.76? Do you still feel like exiting at the bottom was a good move? Inquiring minds want to know.

  • newpikachu by newpikachu Jul 3, 2014 2:51 AM Flag

    really feels like we are at or near the point of maximum pessimism for MCP.

    Price has been absolutely collapsing on no news. Looks like most longs have become hopeless and jumped ship, while shorts are literally foaming at the mouth like mad dogs. They have gone beyond greedy to the point of gloating.

    I like the recent large purchases by the CEO at 2.76 and 2.77. His yearly salary is about 400k and in May he bought about 200k worth of stock. So he has reinvested half his salary in the company at a time when many outsiders are aggressively gloating over the company's imminent demise (per their own predictions, which are underpinned, one imagines, by fairly substantial short positions).

    I am particularly curious about Molibendos large ownership stake in this company. They have continued adding to an already gigantic position all the way down and their purchase price is far above the price where we sit today.

    So now bears are saying MCP bankruptcy is a 100% certainty. Would anyone like to discuss how Molibendos' large stake in MCP relates to the predicated claims of bankruptcy? If MCP is the completely worthless trash which bears portray it as, and if longs have been correct to abandon their positions and jump ship in the recent panic sales which have decimated the stock price, why it is that Molibendos patiently continues to accumulate large quantities of shares?

    Please discuss.

    As for myself I will be taking a large position in MCP tomorrow. Not too concerned about what happens near term. I'm going to be holding with a 2-3 year time frame on this one.

  • Reply to

    Geist Gunter's posts all gone…

    by Jun 20, 2014 12:48 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Jun 21, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    Geist will never go away. He is still active on many PM boards and you will see his latest words of wisdom on this board soon enough.

    His current alias is: ottohuber76

    Be on the lookout all of you dead gold and silver bulls who are supporting the Wall Street call writing club lol

  • Reply to

    Deep Kerr -- ever more growth in reserves

    by the_copper_roof Apr 9, 2014 2:02 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Jun 17, 2014 5:44 AM Flag

    you only list two outcomes "make money" and "lose nothing"

    don't forget to mention maximum loss at expiry, which could be quite substantial if someone enters your proposed trade in size and things don't go as hoped

    thing about SA is, it's a great investment. and it's always better to invest than to gamble

  • newpikachu newpikachu Jun 17, 2014 1:56 AM Flag

    5% down is nothing. I've held securities through 50% + downturns, and ultimately turned profits higher than 300%.
    if you're looking for quick profits don't bother with value plays or special situations; buy growth and momentum.
    Why not sell FNMA now and buy TWTR?
    but don't fool yourself. the risk is still there and it's high. you might wake up one morning down 30% or more on a momo play.

  • Reply to

    Gold Future

    by karmakahn Jun 16, 2014 10:29 AM
    newpikachu newpikachu Jun 17, 2014 12:23 AM Flag

    he might know more than you, but nobody knows the future.

    that's why there are two sides to every trade. if the future were known, there would only be one side, and no trade at all.

  • Reply to

    is this the beginning of the fall?

    by rigelpeace Jun 11, 2014 5:44 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Jun 13, 2014 2:02 AM Flag

    you might be able to add at 75 tomorrow, and at 70 a few days later. if the iraq crisis escalates things could get very exciting on the downside here. we could all wake up one morning soon to SVXY under 60.
    I would welcome it. great buying ops for this fund have been few and far between in the recent past.

    the recent melt up was some crazy stuff but very few were expecting it and many remained on the sidelines. much too easy a trade for those who were already in because they were holding underwater options bought in previous months. no one was afraid, just surprised, when the move took place from 60 to 80+.
    the real fun begins when you get to buy the fear. big fear. the kind of fear that makes most traders run right out of the market with their tails between their legs!

  • Reply to

    Hilarious ETN...

    by deuxtrax May 20, 2014 4:14 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu May 22, 2014 1:24 AM Flag


    he is essentially right. the lowest risk way to short uvxy is through puts, which are as liable to expire worthless as calls, unless one is very lucky in one's timing.
    shorting the underlying is a sure way to make money so long as volatility continues to drop or waver while on its way down over time. those who have done that the last few years without fear have gotten rich. but then one must take on the risk of having one's account wiped out by the sudden appearance of a black swan. some will be caught unawares and lose all of their "free money" in a heartbeat at some unknown future time.
    holding an inverse vol etf and always having 50% cash or more available which one will have the nerves of steel to deploy when catastrophe hits and cuts the fund in half overnight, is probably the most prudent way to play it. but only a few have the discipline to follow that strategy successfully.

  • Reply to

    This stock is going to turn the corner

    by mortimer_duke57 Apr 24, 2014 1:49 PM
    newpikachu newpikachu Apr 24, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    you don't need any advice, it's pretty clear from what you write that you understand how hte market works and understand it can't be timed.
    don't pay attention to people boasting about timing the market on this boards. most of them are lying. many of them only have virtual accounts. and even more of them aren't trading at all, or if they are, are trading a very small fraction of the shares they claim to buy and sell.
    if you try to time the market you WILL get burned. and when you do get burned, it won't matter how many times you got lucky before. that's why most traders go bankrupt within a few years, even if they have tremendous gains for a period of their trading.
    here's the best advice you will ever get: invest in companies you have researched and like that are selling at value prices. do not put all of your money in at once. buy slowly over time and be prepared to buy on any big drops.
    ignore the anonymous posters living in fantasy land and massaging their insecure egos here on yahoo. they aren't telling the truth and trying to imitate their fantasy market timing posts in which they constantly boast AFTER THE FACT of buying at the bottom and selling at the top will get you into big trouble.

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