here is the thing, conlaw. Only buy UVXY options on days when there is a massive spike. just follow a rule such as: only buy UVXY puts on a 25% spike. the rest of the time you do not buy no matter what. you only buy when this criterion is met. that might mean you rarely buy UVXY puts, because it is rare that UVXY spikes 25% in a day. I know one time when it did this year - during the government shutdown.
so you have your entry requirement and also you make an exit requirement - to sell at X %.
this is the only way to diminish risk on UVXY.
once gain, it's not a guarantee you will make money, just a way of putting the odds in your favor. no one can predict what the market will do tomorrow, as much as we all love to make forecasts.
if you really want to make money trading, then trade as little as possible, and only when specific criteria are met. maybe your criteria are only met two times a year. so you just trade two times a year. at those times you go in big. you make all your money on two trades and you're done.
conlaw, I strongly discourage you from putting too much confidence in what you read on these message boards, and that goes especially for people boasting about their outrageous profits. this kind of boasting is even more suspect when they talk about how smart they are and how dumb others are. a lot of these people are mainly using these forums to act out psychological issues. they may not even be trading, or trading with real money.
no professional trader would boast about his profits like this. the only reason traders survive in this business for more than a year is because they willingly accept REDUCED profits in order to manage risk.
you are setting yourself up to fail because you are approaching this from a profit perspective: how can I make 3k or 4k a month?
you are only thinking about profits. the only thing you need to think about is risk. if you manage risk your profits will take care of themselves.
I know one guy who made out very well for awhile trading options. he was making a consistent monthly income. then he lost almost everything he made and stopped trading, to this day he does not accept the risk involved in options trading, despite his losses. he blames the loss on an external circumstance and says options trading is easy money and if he wanted to, he could get back into it and make easy money each month.
beware of thinking you are smarter than the market.
well conlaw, here's the thing.
I can think of hundreds of books you could read. there are plenty of books on trading and investing which are interesting and contain good information.
there's just one problem, even if you read all of them, even if you put in 16 hours a day or more, there is no guarantee you will make "3 or 4k a month consistently." what's worse, there is no guarantee you won't go bust when you least expect it, losing any profits you did make, and your original capital.
take it from someone who has read all the books and dedicated his life to understanding the market when I tell you that there is no secret to making money in the market. a few people get filthy rich, but it just dumb luck. no one can make consistent money in the market. there is no dependable way to do this. you might get lucky and do it - for a month ,a year, even five years. and then you might lose it all in a week.
actually i take that back, if you want to make consistent money, you can do it: go into the business, become a market maker or something like that. start your own brokerage and profit on commissions. that is how you make consistent money. even then you risk losing it all in an unexpected crash. but no honest person will tell you there is any way to make consistent money as a trader.
Don't believe people boasting on ymb about their profits. most of them are lying. there may be a few who really got lucky during the latest bull streak, but they will probably lose everything during one losing streak they don't expect, or if not then, then surely during the next bear market. the problem is you won't hear from them here. they won't come online to tell you they were wrong. they will just disappear.
actually the best advice you can get here is probably what Joey says a lot when he says only trade with an edge. even that isnt a sure thing. trading with an edge doesn't mean you won't go bust one day. it is just a way of putting the odds in your favor.
a good lesson for us all on the difficulties of timing the market. why even try?
they bought thinking BSBR was still in an upward cycle and would go higher. turns out they bought at the top of the upward cycle.
and since then we have been in a downward cycle. that should make all of us who got to buy at these levels grateful for how lucky we are. we can see the potential of BSBR in their buy price. it will return to that, and go beyond that.
lucky the the few who are aware of this under the radar stock and bought it when it at a time when it was an incredible value.
I agree that no one should be selling at these prices. But I would like to clarify something about wash sales, for those who are not familiar with how this works.
never be afraid to sell and buy back simply because of wash sale rules.
you do not actually negate your losses, because when you buy back you get to change your cost basis on the newly bought shares so as to account for the losses on your previous sale. In other words, the sum total of your profits or losses is the same, it is just that the way you account for them is different.
this is only an accounting technicality.
looks like this market is being set up to soar
every board has its resident grinch calling for a major correction (don't know if they're really grinches though, I suspect they are all shrewd and greedy dip buyers instead, buying more on every further 1% drop)
donner, vixen, and rudolph are rubbing their hooves against the snowy ground and getting ready to take off, carrying the whole market up into the sky with them
what is that, is it a bird, is it a plane, is it ... SVXY?
all volatility longs will wake up to find coal in their stockings!
ho ho ho
I was waiting for the nomoredns SVXY buy indicator.
so now all I'm getting is the con_law_misery buy indicator?
come on nomoredns, where are you? chime in here. I need your doom and gloom before I place an order. don't get me wrong, con_law_misery is making me want to take a jumbo sized position in SVXY right now.
Whenever an absolutist with a crystal ball appears on the scene and begins talking like he's God, I always get ready to plunge
but I prefer to use tried and true indicators that have served me well in the past. So, as I was saying, nomoredns, can have a little support here?
don't see them cutting the dividend. they don't need to. those who throw the idea out there are usually short. sellers are clueless. stock is extremely undervalued.
when an article comes out with a title like:
"Can This Gold Miner Survive?"
that's the ultimate buy signal. a kind of "mortgage the house" buy signal.
how many took their cue and loaded up on the appearance of that headline?
guess we can thank those fools for something, after all
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think you're letting the red in your portfolio play psychological tricks on you. every recent post of yours I've read recently talks about bankruptcy. I know that to make such a large investment you must have done a lot of dd, but maybe you need to do some more. bankruptcy simply isn't in the cards for ANV, whether gold increases soon or not. My suggestion, you should consider take a four month vacation from ymb. you could even be more bold and not even look at daily price changes in your portfolio during that time. you're obviously an investor here, to put so much money in and to say you're in no hurry to bail out, but the way you talk about ANV shows your mind is getting hit bad by the propaganda of the short manipulators who populate ymb, trying to spark panic and influence retail selling. you either have to be able to look at the losses in your portfolio with indifference, thinking only of the future - or else just don't look at your portfolio. investing requires a firm future-based orientation. otherwise you end up as one of the countless retail victims who end up selling at all time lows in a panic, only to have their shares scooped up by savvy wall street bottom feeders. don't let that be your fate.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Fortunately nowadays with the internet this kind of lying and fear-mongering can only fool the willfully uninformed.
Nowadays anybody can access chart histories and price histories and find all of the stocks that have gone from under 5 and also from under 1 to go much higher.
that means much fewer people will be misled by this kind of misinformation and scared into selling their shares.
it stands to reason that those who did their DD into low priced issues ignored by wall street and patiently held them until they rebounded and moved considerably higher have become very wealthy, much more wealthy than those who compete with the wall street machine by buying overpriced stocks with inflated PE's - the kind of stocks that hedge funds and institutions pump up to ridiculous levels and then dump like maniacs when the market crashes.
all investors should keep in mind that the way Wall Street is structured takes low priced stocks out of their hands and out of their control. That is why what steind76 calls "small investors" have a distinct advantage picking up low priced, distressed stocks on which they have done their dd and which they expect to rebound. That is also why you see stocks like AMZN and PCLN and GOOG and others get bid up higher and higher and higher, out of all proportion to their intrinsic value. That is where Wall Street money keeps going, into the same stocks. And it is out of those same stocks that Wall Street money will empty very quickly, when the crash comes. Wall Street money goes out a lot quicker than it goes in.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
" A lot of traders here will tell you to hold for the moon, but there are just trying to prevent you from taking profits while they take on new short positions."
This is kind of a strange statement to make, given that you are advocating trading the stock for short term profits, and are recommending a strategy that is sure to serve shorts interests, not the interests of long investors (sell the spike).
The irony of what you are saying here is that you claim to be protecting investors against the very thing that will happen if they follow your advice - a price collapse, brought about by selling and shorting on a sudden spike.
I think you need to re-evaluate your "altruism."
yes, a tried and true short strategy,. "milking the lows." greedy mr. short farmer has gotta get every last drop out of that withered teat.
word how to wise: stop trying to time the market and stop letting short term market moves dictate your gameplan. learn how to invest in a business.