Sorry, I messed that message all up but I was in AXPW heavily and the excitement got to me - It was up 375% today.
I think I was the third person on this board back then. Are any of the old-timers and DRAM specialists still here? I can't remember the Halifax guy's name. Anyone?
Just listen to Jefferies, you don't need anyone else. Google "Jefferies Micron" and watch the movie (link is in article)
June 15, 2015, 1:38 P.M. ET
Micron: Jefferies Home Movie Trumpets DRAM Upside
By Tiernan Ray
Folks, this is what makes a market: while Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore today cut his rating on Micron Technology (MU) to the equivalent of a Sell, warning of weak DRAM trends, Jefferies’s Sundeep Bajikar today reiterates a Buy rating, and a $40 price target, writing that the chips are in fact in under-supply, and that the arrival of Windows 10 from Microsoft (MSFT), and rising use of DRAM in mobile devices, sets up Micron well for the second half of the year.
While investors are “cautious” on Micron, he writes “We expect mobile DRAM demand to increase by ~50% in 2H15 HoH driven by growth in content per box, and a Win10/Skylake refresh to drive PC supply-chain restocking.”
The note is actually something of a reiteration of Bajikar’s prior notes, with one in late May stating Micron and Intel (INTC) would both benefit from the restocking.
The main aspect of today’s piece is actually a link to Bajikar’s video presentation. Video presentations accompanying research notes are an increasing trend, as far as I’ve seen, in the last year or so.
To check out the video, you can watch it streamed from Brightcove’s Web site.
Micron stock is down $1.08, over 4%, at $24.05.
The big news here is that we now know that phase change memory is "significantly cheaper and denser" than DRAM and that, by using a clever arrangement of the two, there is an opportunity to disrupt many different industries. The rest of the world was waiting for PCM to become cheaper than flash.
This puts Intel/Micron years ahead of their competitors as many consumers will necessarily pay a premium for the better-than-flash storage performance, lower-power-than-DRAM memory performance, and unique instant-execute-in-place qualities of PCM. And competitors who scramble to copy Intel/Micron will now need to license the unavoidable portions of the technology from the two.
The other big news is that the memory hierarchy described in the patent is ready-to-go: Intel is already shipping "Iris Pro" processors with the requisite on-package, high-bandwidth eDRAM. ................Microsoft also is ahead of the curve with PCM. They aren't keeping any secrets to this end. It is just that academia and Wall Street don't communicate very well.
I think that it is very possible that Microsoft, Intel and Micron are staging a coup. Perhaps Windows 10 is free not because Microsoft is benevolent - but rather that we're about to see new hardware that's so compelling that they simply aren't worried about it.
The Intel/Micron PCMS tech facilitates such power efficiency that they will be able to offer a no-compromise PC in a smartphone form factor. With Intel's wireless display and wireless charging, you'll still be able to use it like a desktop, given a compatible wireless monitor, keyboard and mouse.
Liken this to BlackBerry's (NASDAQ:BBRY) opportunity of 15 years ago - they were the first to put always-on corporate email into a pocket-able form factor in order to create a market that didn't previously exist. Microsoft has the same unique opportunity here because Apple has largely ignored business software because it isn't fashionable.
A new market will be created when employees can put that complex, expensive, custom-developed Windows application in their pocket. The apps in question aren't sexy new innovative apps - they're the 10 year old, million dollar accounting apps, HR software and TPS reports - boring stuff: a technology at which Microsoft excels. Apple does not. I have more confidence in the new leadership at Microsoft to capitalize on this situation. The "Windows 10 Mobile Enterprise" product appears to be aimed squarely at this opportunity.
Jim Handy (the memory guy) is the best analyst on DRAM and he says shorts are wrong because they don't understand how much costs have decreased. Costs are now 45% of their February 2013 level. Also you need to understand contract pricing is much higher than spot.
April 27, 2015 8:54 AM
Stifel analysts Kevin E. Cassidy and Dean Grumlose last week hosted a few investor meetings with Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU)’s Vice President of Investor Relations, Kipp Bedard. In a report issued Friday, they share their main takeaways.
The analysts left the meetings “with greater conviction that the DRAM industry has changed,” and Micron shares remain their top pick in their coverage universe. They see “the recent PC DRAM oversupply and subsequent selling price declines as the first test of whether the remaining DRAM competitors can react rationally,” which the analysts believe have.
In addition, Micron has “a sound strategy in place to improve its NAND Flash gross margins and can take a leadership position in the developing 3D NAND Flash market.”
Stifel reiterated a Buy rating on Micron, accompanied by a $47 target price.
A few key points from the meetings:
“Micron is transitioning 10% of its DRAM bits from PC DRAM to MobileDRAM.”
The firm believes this will stabilize PC DRAM prices and could lead to an increase in PC DRAM prices in the second half of the year. The industry also seems to be reacting rationally.
Customer forecasts suggest that DRAM supply for mobile, server and networking could remain limited over the year.
“Smartphone adoption of embedded multi-chip package memories (eMCP) is expected to increase from 10% of handsets today to ~60% next year.” This could increase Micron's embedded NAND Flash GM by 10 points, the report states.
The company’s 3D NAND is expected to represent 30 to 50 percent of its NAND Flash bits by the end of 2016. 3D NAND Flash is particularly useful and applicable to every device that needs high-density storage.
The analysts don’t see China moving into leading edge DRAM any time soon. “Lack of IP, equipment and processes adds years to development time. Other countries' failed attempts to develop and support a DRAM industry should be a leading indicator.”
NOTE: EDIG is a $23 million market cap and only has $2 million in cash. It looks like MU is going to pay a very small license fee. MU could buy them out with pocket change if this is of any significance.
This is old news from Feb 23. SAN DIEGO, CA--(Marketwired - February 23, 2015) - e.Digital Corporation (EDIG), a long standing source of innovation and future-defining patented technologies, announced today that the United States District Court for the Southern District of California ruled favorably on all points addressed in a Markman hearing on the Company's US Patent No. 5,839,108 ("the '108 patent") held on February 19, 2015. The '108 patent relates to the way modern day flash memory devices store and manage data and is an important part of e.Digital's Flash-R™ patent portfolio.
A Markman hearing is an important pre-trial event in a patent lawsuit wherein the Court analyzes and construes the meaning of disputed patent claim terms after consideration of each party's evidence. A favorable claim construction determination is very important in establishing infringement of an asserted patent. The Company and Micron Technology, Inc., each presented evidence addressing the proper construction of six disputed claim terms in the '108 patent. The Court was also asked to determine if the preamble from Claim 1 of the '108 patent was limiting. After consideration of each party's evidence, the Court issued its claim construction order last Friday, ruling in e.Digital's favor on the contested claim terms, and also finding that the preamble was not limiting.
If you want to make the absurd comparison to the metal industry, then at least use a progressive company to compare it to rather than old worn out and poorly managed American companies. Posco (PKX) is the leading steel company in Korea. It has a $19 Billion market cap even in this poor commodity market. Four years ago, when iron was more in demand, Posco's valuation exceeded $38.5 Billion - for a steel company! A $38.5 Billion valuation for Twitter would put it at $58.84 a share! So you can see that TWTR stock price is not so absurd here even when comparing it to a metal company.