Great post as always. I think that Q1 earnings will be good. Moving forward from there they should be great - the years ahead are more than promising. From a recent sale of inventory they have an extra 20 million towards expenses. That money, if spent, will return to EXK's balance sheet as deductible business expenses which are the costs associated with transportation, equipment maintenance, marketing and business administration, as well as some equipment purchases, operating losses and expenses related to employing other workers. So this will fair well per El Cubo, as most costs related are deductible for the first year on payments and costs of items mentioned above.
The use of silver in fabrication/industrial demand is on the rise. By 2015, estimates are 870 Moz. It may be more if corporations start to stockpile, which I think that they will, and this is one reason why we are having manipulation now. Industrial use counts for a bit more than 50% of total fabrication demand. Jewelry about 20%, coins about 13% and other uses about 16%. Some sources will state 13% for other uses, but that's not including big brother with secret uses. Chinese fabrication demand averages about 20% of output of supply.
Silver is also a currency, but I see industrial nations' supply and demand becoming more solid based and some pricing disconnect from currencies. So silver will stay stable and EXK will see gains/investment just from silver being stable. The US dollar is strong because other currencies aren't. The USA and other nations still have debt issues and that balance is macroeconomics like the World Cup or the Olympics. Silver is also a safe haven - fear/support currency metal like gold. The days of manipulation on miners will end when investors realize that silver will become price stable and it has different analytics than gold. Banks, the Fed, working for big business want us to believe that silver is exactly the same as gold, it's not.
As I was typing this dollar post, EXK was at 6.35, after falling from a bit higher level. I was heading off back to bed as I received little sleep this week, so in my thinking/opinion I was saying don't sell in a panic and take time to judge your trading. Before the market opened we saw and I posted manipulation, but retail buyers temporary drove the price up a bit from 6.37. It was obvious to professional money managers that key money flow indicators would stay in a range for the rest of the day.
I for one, never want to post detailed thoughts on daily directions. I'm not a real trader of this stock. I did sell a small amount of my newer shares that I had bought at bottom lower prices, yesterday at 6.52. Message boards are not a safe place for judging detailed daily trading thoughts by others. Weekly thoughts are OK because investors would then have time to do their own research, which is the way that it should be. My timeframe for EXK is two, three and four years, that's if we aren't bought out. I do think that earnings will be good moving forward.
In a recent post, I mentioned to view silver as an industrial demand metal along with support as a safe haven - fear investment. In my opinion, silver won't trade a lot lower in the future. If we have a raid it will be short lived. That's my opinion. Banks, industry, the FED and wall street want investors to keep silver and gold in the same boat. When they have pressured gold down, silver has gone down more and that shouldn't have been the case. Silver may also be currency, but it also has industrial supply and demand qualities. EXK should have solid earnings going forward, but at a future point I believe that we will be bought out and management is on RECORD for that. Again, I believe that silver should be judged on its own merits and not always in all the same ways as gold. If the investing world can catch on to that, then we will be OK, both with physical and selective miners.
The USD has a head-and-shoulders formation forming., which should call for further dollar weakness in the coming days. We'll get up days for silver next week. This will be an active news (foreign banks) weekend. Back to bed. LOL
I don't know where is even begin today, so the following will be all that I'll say for now. There are different ways to manipulate markets, believe me, I have a full list and I'm placing check marks next to a few. I'm not able to reply to hariwonder under his post - as a LI code appears. I wish to thank him in coming to this board and posting. At this time, I need to hold comment as we are being %^&$ by others.
I understand your post, your still bullish. Sometimes others view a statement per consensus of analysts as the same as the person posting it. It's something hard to convey a thought process on a message board, even when your posting history shows positive consciousness.
I've been watching that reaction on FX markets. I just covered silver future contracts and several currency pairings for a nice profit. Applications for unemployment insurance payments rose less than expected in the week ended March 21, adding more signs to the recent recovery in the U.S. labor market. Interesting though, it was mostly a FX market call, not mentioned by many main/wall street economists This and the news on the Bank of Japan has and is putting pressure on the dollar. I mentioned the Bank of Japan and those thoughts a month ago, but I had been a bit early for that trade. The 1620 support for gold has been mentioned on FX a million times in the last couple of week. I do see it as support. There is a lot going on, from earnings to world conditions. I believe that silver is now a two edge sword, manipulation plays with dollar pair currencies is easy money. Now I'm trading biotech, should be sleeping. Been up another 28 hours.
I forgot to add this: There is an analyst - Daily FX, a yahoo provider of news that thinks that the government will report mildly positive numbers.
When I try to compile numbers (I did nothing in respect to this round) I include ADP Research in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics as a soft back drop when compiling data. The ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly snapshot of U.S. nonfarm private sector employment based on actual transactional payroll data.
As I stated last month, I didn't trust government numbers. My numbers given were a bit less last time in total as part of plus and minuses.
Jobs - employment within political and policy sensitive sectors like hospitals are probably down. One must consider the new health bill - insurance costs among lower wage employers like retail. The total nonfarm payroll accounts for only (approximately) 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. Seasonal numbers is an important part of dynamics. I think that government is never accurate, as they are pumped and will probably say that they are mildly positive. They will at least try to sell positive dynamics going into May-June.
I haven't checked ADP figures on Monday, when they were probably compiled, nor did I complete analytics this time around. We will see what the government numbers are soon enough.
The Dow Jones FXCM dollar rallied a bit at the end of the NY session and EXK rose a few cents within the same timeframe. Investors of metals were pleased to see that that the Bernanke Fed were holding interest rates in place and would continue with monthly bond buying. The FED stated that labor markets will remain a key focus as more job development is needed before a revision in monetary stimulus.
The NFP - nonfarm payrolls will probably show mild positive employment numbers or dynamics. Improved sectors within housing would indicate an improving economy or at least those (investors and consumers) willing to bet on it. At times, certain sectors with heavy weight to consumer spending comes with a price known as inflation. Inflation depends on macroeconomics known as the price/wage spiral. To offset or balance this would mean that taxable salaries rise faster than CPI. The FED is forecasting inflation to stay tamed, rising only to just over 2% by 2015. Tomorrow comes the German PMI reports.
Silver as a risk asset will always have merit relating to US debt economics and global financial failures, but now is the time to focus on silver within a growth economic model as well - still with the implies of supply/demand implications. It will take longer for silver to rise again based on positive economics, but then again - that may be mostly for the time being. The rich manipulation groups control and both the FED and big business wants low silver prices, but the day is still coming, one way or the other that supply will not meet demand and price manipulation will get it's back broken. EXK is undervalued and there's buyout talk surfacing again.
Danny dashes into the hedge maze and walks backwards in his own tracks and leaps behind a corner, covering his tracks with snow to mislead Jack, who is following his footprints.
Danny then tries to open all 12 replies to the JP Morgan thread and walks straight into the stupidity of another Yahoo failure.
Just to say: JPM and GS don't computer trade EXK with algo's - high speed, but Sprott could along with few others that I know of. As far as I know, we have only one firm that does on a so so basis. It's a firm from Canada that gives buy and sell recommendations. Their name starts with a C. There are a few others, but only when we are ripe one way or the other from technicals. JPM and GS will buy pms long for their own accounts if they feel that they can make money. They do trade for clients, some being private clients.
I agree about being concerned with cartel manipulation for silver/futures. The FED wants gold low and big business wants silver low. I be more concerned with spam than JPM computer trading pms. That spam - company with their clients of last week, may have dumped today causing a lot of pms more hardship, more than what we should had seen. I believe that their pump and dump is over. Do a little research - SEC complaints and all on that spam company. I know a lot about them and had for years when I was working in compliance. They do a lot of business for very large amounts of money. They often have their hands involved with 20 - 50 different companies at a time.
The working/self employed middle class is being manipulated at every angle imagined and not just financially. The sad truth is that some will do the talk, but very few will do the walk. Before the last sub-prime melt down, a large bank with branches in my area, give home loans to welfare for 600K new homes. When the rates rose they walked. So the middle class that still banks there gets almost nothing in interest.
Getting back to the talk and walk, you have manipulation all over stock message boards. Once again, we have a week old spam post. Research the background of a spam post. I'm sure many can see thru it, but how many decided to report it to the SEC and/or the AGO of California. A post that certain Ya employees refuses to remove, when they will remove spam from real news media sites. If you want to do the walk, over talk, then this mention is a good place to start. The SEC anti spam initiative was launched and has targeted the profit potential for so-called pump and dump stock scams, but they need to be contacted.
Investors need to stand up against manipulation, otherwise the talk of silver means nothing.
Forgot to say that's it good to see jw posting again - themainman disappeared again, I hope things are OK with him. Where did crusaderdog go. We need to do a roll call, we are missing a few good men.
Beastinem, I agree, that's why our timeframe is 2 years. Although earnings for the third and fourth quarter of 2013 may be great. New records for 2014 may be achieved if they follow their business plan and place South side veins into operation. You and I always seem to be on the same page.
I had posted many times to research mining news publications. I read almost all of them on a regular basis and have quoted Cooke's sell talk of the company from other sources such as from an interview article a few years ago at the Denver forum. Thank you, Mensch, for your post as you beat me to this. I have made mention that there could be possible M&A activity for both EXK and PZG for the last two and a half years and that EXK has a 23/24 score. I have a couple of posts giving the variables. We had recently discussed a sale of the company once El Cubo is finished. Will it happen is anyone's guess as a buyout would need the blessing of large shareholders and must be agreed upon by the board of directors. Present board members do have a history within mergers and buyouts. EXK management would see a personal windfall from a sale. Many of our large fund holders, as also discussed before, favor buyout situations as investments.
One factor not being a discussion topic by the CEO for reasons of ethics is the quantity of minerals and veins not yet tested by modern methods. So historical studies are ethical topics for Cooke to discuss in detail as he has mentioned this. Historical studies information from government agencies of Mexico is on the web. There are other ways to get present and past information concerning their assets and explorations activities from viewing heat maps to calling independent geologists mostly employed by colleges with metallurgy, technology and large geology departments. I only sold very few shares in the last two years because of a possible overnight buyout. To figure out presently what a buyout could be worth for this company isn't tricky, but would take someone a few hours in crunching numbers after doing historical research. There are several companies that would buyout this company, but now besides El Cubo, there are several other issues to consider, but I don't see them as disconcerting.
Thanks - Check out their stock site. Then run a quick protection scan afterwards. Their awareness campaigns are paid via third parties. They state that third parties are often investor market awareness companies who have been hired or an invest/investor group. They buy and sell shares themselves. So why won't the complaint compliance team remove this spam which could cost us money. They did remove the other spam. I give all the reasons why this spam can be harmful to investors. Is employees of Yahoo third parties?