By the use of mineral satellite mapping I was able to see three past events in which I posted before management did. First were results for underground gold/silver at San Sebastian. Second was a mention of extended rich veins for Guanacevi and Bolañitos. Third was strong gold reporting this last quarter - in which I had combined satellite mapping with surface mapping to see progress.
I see some big deposits of gold beyond the last locations - one is El Cubo, which I also posted about two areas before management did. I went into great posting detail of vein location and geology of El Cubo thru use of satellite and surface mapping.
In my opinion, EXK will at future points do a PVG - and not once or twice, but three times.
I started posting on the SLW, as you may reminder when the stock price was $2.85. I posted early on that silver would hit $50.00 and when it did, I said that I'm finished - the game is over for now. I came to this board, where I owned shares at 2.50 because of older satellite mapping. New mapping came out last November and was improved again in April/May. So why do I still have a core? It because at any time, stock price could move up faster than a bullet where one wouldn't be able to buy fast enough, due to a major announcement. The first announcement may be two years off, or it may be sooner.
Disclosure: Geology was a hobby as I was once climbed hills and mountains. My life employment was working for a firm similar to Goldman, but better and more respected. I also taught night classes for a few years. I'm not a professional geologist.
II think that there are some that respect honest thoughts. Brad doesn't like the new mining tax bill, but there are ways to offset much of that. Right now we have a lot of day traders trading as seen from other sites. Regulars do day trade and that's fine, as many also have cores. I have a core. Core value is the only way that this stock will rise and hold value and I think that this will happen in time. I don't see banks trading today, some hedge types, but mostly retail. A big change over the last two days compared to the last several months. Brad will be doing the talk in less than a hour and quite possibility after talking to his advisors he may have some great ideas to express.
Just wait a couple of years as the weight of greed hurting the middle class and those younger working 30 hour weeks at low wages can't afford a decent life. 30 hour weeks = food stamps and this will be the will be just one of a thousand ways that debt will continue to rise. QE and talk about it's future status with reflection to jobs has banks laughing all the way to Aspen. Banks are playing the talk, both ways, depending where their money is for a particular week. My neighborhood is full of bankers and not one of them believes that the system will not fail. Gold and silver will rise again.
On October 15, I posted this: "they will be more focused on gold and this will add cash to the books."
Then when earnings came out I posted this: "Gold production, up 95% to 23,000 ounces, a record quarter. It's all about the gold as a by-product bonus. That's why I've been here, going for the gold and lots of it. It's there."
At the end of last year, I wondered why our investor funds held their shares and increased holdings. It's because they have mapping and employ geologists. It's on their web sites. I have talked in detail about that before. I have used mapping myself. Mapping has not failed me with any posting that relates to that.
I have deepened my general research in the last couple of months and again I think that this is where they are heading - for gold. Whenever they decide to make this effort stronger, earnings and price will skyrocket. I have talked about San Sebastian and I still have a two year outlook, but my prior mention of extended veins, as well as El Cubo will also be focus on more gold.
"Price and value eventually converge". I agree, but some see EPS as an accounting measure, not necessarily a cash measure for mining companies. Cash can be viewed as the foundation of solvency, so most analysts for miner's judge solvency with other measures that are usually related to the components of EBITDA and working capital. Quite simply for us, growth should bring cash or above ground inventory, that's our flight ticket. It will happen.
So with the solvency factor, it has been seen by some that it holds the price back. EXK's solvency is at 30%, the bottom third compared to other miner's. Our growth profit has been below average. This was a refection of El Cubo, but now El Cubo is in movement. After San Sebastian is brought on-line then we should see a large increase in share price.
So at 8:30 am on Wednesday comes housing starts and then at 2 and 2:30 pm FOMC and Ben. Then on Thursday comes initial jobless claims and existing home sales. All this will either be 'how sweet it is' or 'the cat's in the cradle and the silver spoon'.
10 B to 15 B a month taper? I'll be watching Treasury yields, mortgage rates and the US dollar.
Then rides in Robin Hood - or not - with all that budget stuff, and who will be the next Fed pawn for banking and special interests.
I have my flowchart for trading currencies in place, which will also tell me - if I should go long gold and/or silver futures.
Posting weather conditions will be difficult as we also have that Syria stuff. We will see thunder and lightening, but clear skies will be ahead.
There's nothing sweeter than a 'turn around' for a company. All 3 mines are performing well. El Cubo is now an asset. They have assets in mining areas that could be sold. Check for title work permit/activity for excess expansion and mapping. Those are keys. Funds want a little more cash on the books and they should get it. San Sebastian as a 4th mine is a keeper.
Mainman: Referring back to the conference call where Brad made a statement about Paral and Arroyo Seco. He said that they will probably be sold. I see that coming. Also did you notice the satellite images of mineral veins of El Inca on EXK's website? They are now in EXK's website history. Goldcorp and Yamana are in that area. Will El Inca will be sold as well? These sales would bring CASH back on the books. If this happens, look for a big jump in share price.
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Northern Miner ---- "Mexico-focused newsletter writer Mike Kachanovsky argues that if the 7.5% mining tax is passed into law it will have a chilling effect across the board, but says he suspects that the government may have floated a high number first in order to gauge the reaction, and will probably settle on a lower number in the 2–3% range so that it appears that it is willing to compromise."
"He also makes the point that the government “isn’t stupid” and recognizes that some of the largest Mexican mining companies like Fresnillo (LSE-FRES, US-OTC: FNLPF), Grupo Mexico and Minera Frisco (a private company owned by telecoms billionaire Carlos Slim) are likely to push back against such a high rate." “Companies like Fresnillo and Grupo Mexico, they’re politically connected . . . they’re not going to allow a proposal that is so harmful to be accepted.”
The numbers are solid, but they need to start banking some cash once again . The development of San Sebastian is coming and it must be done with clean accounting books. The main reason why we only have 17% fund exposure, and that being mostly hedge funds, is because of our recent drawdown of funds for El Cubo. Mutual Funds hate El Cubo for the high expense of that mine. By viewing mapping and the El Cubo report it will take time before they can get to the deep ores and that will take funds. In two/three years, I see EXK at an all-time high, but not until San Sebastian is producing gold. That will also depend on no more acquisitions, as shareholders we can't afford that.
According to two of the largest big ten accounting firms, this bill won't pass the Senate as there is major opposition both in the Senate and by major gold producers.
"Each state will stipulate what it considers a purchase, although it is possible to include other
transactions not traditionally considered acquisitions." So if EXK said, guess what, we need to layoff half our employees unless you consider this partner asset transfer. What will the local municipalities say. To note: EXK already 'gives' a lot for local communities. Senate members of the mining states voted against the tax bill because they know - 1. That new tax collections won't benefit their districts , and 2. They are concerned about jobs.
Road and services worldwide are always better in rich gated communities and it's not because they pay more taxes. The senators that voted against the tax bill aren't stupid about PORK.
There are all sorts of ways that EXK can maneuver, some include a little M&A type investment partnership, just as the oil companies will.
After reading the 12 page tax report, where there are issues like tax conditions on inactive property sustainability, I can understand why Brad said this:
"Brad Cooke, chief executive of Canadian silver producer Endeavour Silver, said:
“The combination of the government tax take and essential reinvestment needed to sustain mines would take about 90 per cent [of our profits]. It takes Mexico from one of the more attractive jurisdictions worldwide to one of the worst,” he said. “This is extreme. This is about survival.”
On the other hand, EXK can make several strategic moves that would greatly benefit conditions and stock price from here.
I understand that there's a lot of quick traders, but I post in heart for the value long term investor, which should do well over a longer term.
I guess a couple of people though that you were bashing. HE's NOT BASHING. I not worried about any of it, including toxic derivatives. Banks have outstanding customers with about $20 trillion in derivatives and that has been a problem. Banks act as both dealer and 'player' of derivatives. When they have their 'player' caps on, gold drops. QE as helped make bankers kings of the flatlands and castles at the same time. Inflation CPI needs to rise above 10 -year Treasury yields.
I decided to take another position which would be beyond a core. If I need to cost average, I will have cash placed aside. Reasoning isn't totally based on a manipulate dollar, but based on the coming together of several events. Some are: Earnings guidance for 2014, timed to a budget agreement. It doesn't matter as to the outcome of the budget talks, as to just an agreement. For now, this is just another yearly budget circus. Margin use (futures) has started to increase a bit today. Of course these events are short term - as we all know that longer term results will wipe out the middle class. Add Asian commodity exchanges backing gold as in physical holdings. China will have more control and this scares the bullion banks and places the Fed between two hard rocks.
Both internal and external is looking good. Been convinced for eight months that the dollar would fall. The 10 year bond has fallen to my mark on a mention about two weeks ago. It is sad that jobs aren't important to greed city. Although with so many giveaways, some just don't want to work. This will continue to hurt the responsible middle class. The middle class isn't the group that government and industry are trying to court. Manipulation (corporate, government, and any establishment under the title of bank) is still a concern with all risk markets - as private concerning investors like us, are not in control, but there are certain hedge funds seeing stuff our way with metals.
It's almost all manipulation going into FOMC. There's no question this time - no taper and it's not the dollar, but consider our global trading partners in which they (currencies ) are now transferring funds for real estate transactions within rate exchanges. This is the main vocal point along with trade with currency pairing. Thus, the banks want to keep a hold on gold as they are trying to make 200 DMAs a concern. Also the Euro/US Dollar compared to US T yields are at their highest going back to 2004. Manipulation can change on a dime and it will when banks finish their business.