The stock price is now at 92 cents after hours. Comparing Joe Walsh to Adolf Hitler is ridiculous, however. Hitler references are always best when NOT used. Just sayin
Now trading at 98 cents, can a total liquidation be far behind. Watch for downward volume to swell as this nosedive is leaving any current stock holder with a nosebleed on the rapid descent. Treat your sales resp and clients like dirt, and you get what you deserve, Joe Walsh and his band of know-nothings. lol
Items 1-4 above happening= 1% COMBINED
#5 = 99%
Stock price will be wiped out, headquarters will be sold, yellow pages will be auctioned off and bought by hibu for $195,000. Sales reps and managers and artists and everyone else will have their jobs eliminated, and their pensions will be still paid, but at 65% of par.
The way this company has treated long time employees by layering in lazy managers and expecting them to sell, when they never could, was the final death blow. Most people with half a brain, and a pulse, under age 60 have either retired, will retire, or will hang on until shown the door. All other reps under the age of 60 are already in their second, or third round of interviews with other companies.
Longtime, the fact that print is now only 1/3 of the company's revenue reflects the loss of paid subs, combined with the general belief that "no one reads the paper any more".. Drive through most good neighborhoods on any Sunday morning and you will still see the driveways loaded with the delivered paper.
The newspaper industry has done a lousy job of selling to ad agencies and decision makers the fact that print still works when used correctly. The internet is over rated as it relates to the average small to mid sized business that newspapers used to cater to, One would think the drop in ad revenue would eventually turn positive, but this will depend on how well the entire industry does in trying to convince businesses that ads in newspapers still work. When was the last time anyone saw a GOOD series of promotional testimonials from advertisers talking about how well their ads are doing in print?
Longtime, coming up on your bottom call. The downward momentum has slowed but I just don't see anything happening to move this up, short of a buyout by GCI or Tribune. Operationally, the company has passed on most online options over the years, like SEO or SEM programs with their once huge client base.
Your web strategy is lousy, just shut down these sites and cancel your domains before you lose everything.
The price of the stock is just a few cents away from being in the nineties. Any institution still in this stock is on the verge of selling whatever they haven't dumped. This is a perfect storm for total liquidation. What a shame, but treating your customers and sales reps like sh#t always comes back to roost.
SEANOISE, your lack of intelligence is shocking. You parse my words and try to use that against me but fail to admit that for companies with revenues declining at a rate faster than expenses, cash flow will eventually be unable to service the debt. As stated by me less than 2 months ago when the stock was at more than $4 a a
Share, sell everything as the stock will drop to less than $2 per share due to recent strategy changes by Walsh. I was dead_on correct while your valuation was $7.50 a share. You were dead wrong. Lol. Lol. Your knowledge of this company is based on experience from 10 years ago, by your own admission.
And now it is $1.30 so what is your point? Trust me, it wasnt the little guys that sold after the earnings report. Some of them keep hanging on, hoping this one will return to past glory. The stock funds sold as most of them dont like to own $2 or $1 stocks. Chapter 7 just around the corner.
SEB, the fact that cash flow and EBITDA barely budged, but the stock has dropped nearly 50% in the past two weeks, should show you how meaningless those two measurements are when a company has high debt, staggering interest charges, and declining revenue and margin. On top of that, this company has no money to invest in product growth and new ventures. This is why EBITDA is a meaningless number pushed by companies that have no REAL Earnings.
At 35%, and dropping, this reflects a massive loss of 12.5% from the 40% phantom margins enjoyed within the past year. This company can ill afford to be down 12.5% in margin, EBITDA or the real one.
Seanoise, there is no way I will continue to prove my points. Three weeks ago you said the stock was worth $7.50 and I said bankruptcy is just around the corner. I believe my stock valuation was more accurate than yours. That fact is indisputable. As for EBITDA margins, that term is what losing companies, and fans of losing companies use to try to justify how "undervalued" their stock is. The interest part of that term will surely kill DEX in the long run. It's just that simple.
Bankruptcy in the next 13 months, if not sooner.
I am not confusing anything. You ask where I thought revenue would be and I gave you the drop percentages. You can figure the number out if so needed.
If you really beleive that operating margin has nothing to do with the valuation of this company, than there is nothing I can say to you that would make you understand how to fairly value a company. You keep doing it your way, and I'll keep doing it my way. My advice to you would be to take a few high level finance courses and learn what you obviously do not understand. I have some left over from undergrad and grad school if you want to borrow them.
I noticed you refused to answer my question, where will the stock price be in one year, and two years from today? So I'll ask it again. Answering a question with a question is a common tactic for people that don't have a solid conviction of their thoughts.
I focused on profit margin because you tried to make it seem like that wasn't part of a solid price valuation. I am glad now you have admitted that it is, and was. The digital decline will continue, and the print decline will also. I would be surprised to see digital off anywhere near 30% however, more like a -8%. Print will also see another drop, though Walsh's efforts to shore that up with lower rates, and free ads, may be a small finger in the dike. I think print will be at -16%.
The stock looks like it is bouncing off a low and could go to $1.80 before rolling over again, just like I said it would earlier this week. The daily drops of 10-25% couldn't continue forever.
The stock will retest the recent lows within the next 6 weeks unless some vulture comes in and tries to buy the whole company for pennies on the dollar. That's always a risk here if one believes in ultimate failure. Hell, AOL is being bought for 38X last years net income, so anything can happen on these small cap, thinly traded stocks with a decent footprint and still huge customer base.
Some institutions that own shares may also be short to form a hedge position. If they have a huge runup in price from where they bought, they may want to lock in the profit with a short position. If the stock price drops, they cover their short and pocket the difference. If the stock rises, the value of their short gets slammed, but is offset by the gain in the price on long shares held. Not uncommon for different mutual funds to have offset positions.
It will be hard to turn around an industry whose main users are listed in the obit sections of the daily newspapers. Ask anyone under 45 if they have used a yellow page book in the past six months and their answers will shock you. Usage among people under 45 is at 15% a year, and shrinking. Smart phone usage went from 17% four years ago, to 65% now. Google just last week confirmed that more than 50% of ALL DOMESTIC SEARCHES take place on a smart phone. Who uses the yellow pages? The same people that have flip phones in their pocket or purse. And those numbers are shrinking every hour of every single day.
Seanoise, I don't know why anyone cares what your "valuation" is on this stock, anyway, but here goes. You should have never ever had a valuation of $7.50 on this stock. The discounted cash flow model, that I have used since 1985 with stupendous success, takes a look at many factors. These factors include items from the income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet. Basically it says how much extra cash will this company generate and keep in the future based on the past, present and future asumptions.
One of the most telling signs is PROFIT MARGIN. If margin is shrinking, all other things being equal, the future cash flow will be lower than current. If margin is growing, all other things being equal, the future cash flow will be greater. For a comapany like DEX, with shrinking revenues, shrinking PROFIT MARGINS, and high debt levels, the future cash flow, if any, will be used to service the debt, not to invest in future growth. This company will reach a point where they have to cut expenses to the bone to service the debt payments, any chance of repaying principle is a pipe dream.
You ignored profit margin shrinkage, which is a key component of a stock that may have peaked. Maybe this is why your "fair value price" has been off anywhere from 15% to 85% . depending on the time frame. Some people believe the market is efficient and takes into account all things known and assumed, though I gave up on that theory long ago. I make moves largely on feel and gut after weighing the facts and looking at the numbers.
Seanoise, WHAT IS YOUR FAIR VALUE ASSUMPTION NOW?
Where will this stock trade in one year? two years?
Seanoise, no need to get personal, but here goes. As a finance major and MBA I clearly understand the concept of fair value. Your assumptions of fair value were off, so either your projected profit margin or growth rates were not factored correctly. I'll let you decide that. You missed a great downside move because you were blinded by your obviously flawed calculations.
My comments regarding the newspaper and radio stations were based on what one of my companies does as consultants to these businesses. We have a model where we teach sales staffs how to keep customers from migrating, and manage their ADWords and other online programs for them. We then roll back our management fees to offer them in kind value in free ad space, or time, depending on the medium. This gives my clients a headstart in stopping the migration to online, while at the same time giving them increased exposure in print (newspapers) or time(radio). The internet is not the only game in town, newspaper ads and radio spots can still deliver a fantastic ROI if done correctly. My model offers free ad space to the advertiser, the newspapers get extra fees, and they maintain a solid relationship with their clients.
We also train the reps how to talk the digital talk, and walk the digital walk. High end stuff like ROi, Scalable websites for all formats, the value of longtail keyword campaigns, reputation cleanup, and how to be smart with a smart phone ad campaign. In app advertising and Bing/Yahoo programs when Google is overpriced in certain high frequency categories.
DEX claims transparency in everything they do, but the reality is they skim such a high percentage of supposed Google ad budgets for their own fees, that most clients would be better off running their own campaigns around a few phrases in target towns, and making sure their websites are loaded with relevant data and easy contact points.
Seanoise, you are trying to cover yourself on a monumental miss. As the stock was sliding down down down you maintained a fair value of this stock at nearly 6x what it is trading for today. This is a monumental mistake that renders most if not all of your future comments unreadable. For whatever reason you failed to see the massive shift away from print, and also digital, as it was quite visible to many others.
The market cap of this stock nears $18 million. It will soon be a penny stock, as there appears to be no floor on the stock price. I would have thought it would rally a little bit but the downside momentum is so huge, that appears unlikely.