I jumped back in after a few days of huge volume spikes, thinking that maybe it was in play. Haven't seen much since, and fell asleep on this barely following it. I didnt yet read the release but imagine its more of the same, ad revenue in print down, slight improvement in digital.
But the caveat here in this digital growth is it is NOT organic, merely top line collections for passing off ads on Google, Yahoo Bing. The search engine brokerage business is where they are growing, and they get only a commission on that.
I am holding here, not worried about the financial demise immediately, hoping some billionaire will step up and take it out at $5.25 per share. I know, it's a pipe dream, but ya gotta believe in something.
So, Tim, are you still holding or did you sell everything prior to today? I bought a few K shares a few months ago and expected the share price to pop to $5.25, short term. In the long run, Pruitt's decision to buy KRI and load this company up with a stupendous amount of debt was always going to be the final straw. I have felt that way for years and basically just traded this one since 2009, knowing that the end would eventually come.
The biggest problem with the new Impress Local program is it is 4-5 years too late. Building big elaborate websites in this day and age of 65% mobile searches makes no sense. As for SEM programs, MNI is now a broker, selling $1000 worth of online advertising and keeping 20%, at most, gross. Thats why Google is trading at over $1,000 and MNI is at $3. Most media companies doing any internet sales end up buying Google, yahoo, and Bing for their clients, and only keeping a small amount of the revenue. It's a shell game. and Google holds all the cards.
Trust me on this, been doing it for years. It's smoke and mirrors for any media company talking about how well their internet sales are going, all we are doing is making Google, yahoo and Bing A LOT of money.
I am holding MNI for now, but glad to be a proud owner of GOOGLE stock for more than 7 years.
After two strong days of super high trading volume last week, the vitality and enthusiasm has died down to near comatose levels. This lack of follow thru sets this stock up for a quick slide to $2.65 or lower in the next ten days. Position yourself to buy more at those levels, not in here, if you are long term bullish.
Loualex my comment was for two days combined. 1 million on Thursday and 2 million on Friday. Hope this clears it up
The last time volume was this high was December 4.2012. More than 3 million on that date, with a closing price of $3.30. That price point at the time was also a short term high, so let's wait and see if there is follow on action here.
impressive volume today as a follow on to yesterday's action. This is something to be watched and if this continues I'd have to say that someone is acquiring a position outside of normal funds. The Fredrickson indicators are flashing yellow, two more days of this and we move to green with a bump up to 5.25 or more likely by end of year
On Thursday, the share volume traded more than 360% above normal trading range. the share volume of McClatchy also moved up more than 350% . the Fredrickson indicators are flashing yellow, indicating that if the volume level continues above average for three more days, there may be a billionaire with a thirst for acquisition in the newspaper space on the prowl.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Volume in trading picked up yesterday and the stock had it's third highest trading day of the year. Wanted to let you know that this was unusual and the Fredrickson indicator is now flashing yellow. Should the trading volume continue for another three days, this would indicate a short term bullish sign possibly indicating accumulation by a billionaire with a thirst for acquisitions. just saying.
PJ, I would probably cover my short at $200 or so, couldnt afford the margin calls up to $775. :)
Longtime, no one, not you, me, or Mary Junck really know what the coming two year low will be. There is a chance this company could be acquired. The company could have trouble refinancing and be moved down again. Revenues could jump and people could come moving back to newspapers in a big way. Or the trend in slow yoy and qoq revenue could continue to fall short of previous. Who really knows. What I believe is the Internet will continue to grow at the expense of print circ, and it is that circulation drop to unprofitable publication continuation that eventually has a huge impact on the equity price. I could be wrong, and have no problem admitting that, or suffering the insignificant consequences.
Momentum I refer is a change in direction of ad revenue on the print side in the next 18 months. Once this stock settles down to $1s and change then the next move, directionally, will be based on ad revenues. I am just not convinced that the ad revenue levels will ever reach 2011 levels, unless there is an acquisition that adds to the top line.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I am short more than 16,000 shares and expect to cover at 75 cents. If momentum shifts I'll probably cover at 1 or a little higher, but ready and willing to wait it out.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Longtime, you go from touting these stocks to shorting them at the wrong time, then covering right before a major move down. I think it is you who need to be medicated, heavily, to avoid such repetitive disastrous investing. Your posts are also right there for all to see. My record is undeniably much better than yours, on newspaper stocks. I realize you are a shrewd investor, but your track record from your recent newspaper investments in the past seven years has left a STUPENDOUS amount of money on the table. just last week you stated, I am covering my short position at $2.65, but fully expect the stock to go to $2.25. What the hel@@ is that?
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Longtime, yes I have been up and down on these newspapers stocks, almost always high on them when they have reached short term lows and definitely low on them right before they tank.. I have had stupendous timing on these moves over the years, all right there for anyone to see. Right now I just feel as though Lee was way ahead if itself especially based on the near fire sale prices that Boston Globe properties and Washington Post papers went for. If these papers couldn't find buyers at better prices, what true long term value does the Baraboo Post or East Wiiley Herald have in reality.
You can go on and on about cost savings and local dominance, and I realize that any cost savings Lee has rolled out has only hurt its dominant position in the small towns most of the papers are in. The rapid growth of smart phones, and Lee's inability to truly capitalize on this e move in any meaningful way, will only continue to make the papers overall intrinsic value decline.
Decline in value leads to decline in stock prices, as has been the trend in the entire industry in the past six years. This ti e is different, this is truly the last major move down for all publicly traded pure play newspaper companies. The high debt loads, and terribly underfunded pension obligations are the death knell for everyone of these companies over time.
Yahseu, just out of curiosity, where do you live and what local paper do you buy for local news? If you could answer this also, are you younger or older than 55 yrs.?
Joel, where will the ad rise come from? What businesses or types of business do you think will increase spend in newspapers? If you think revenues will reverse and turn black, where does the money come from, and why?
Headed north, 25 years ago, newspapers did skew affluent, not so much anymore. Who would a department store rather target, a 45 year old that has an IPad and smart phone and gets his news this way, or a 73 year old retiree who still subscribes, but only on Sunday? So I get it, you pay a premium to look at the Sunday inserts, this Sunday take all the inserts out of your paper and look at what's left. the book section and travel section, gone. the Sunday mag, gone. the lifestyle section, now combined with a book page and travel story. the big thick classified sections with real estate sections, pages and pages of car ads, employment ads, all gone. So you can continue to think that Sunday papers are the savior, I KNOW better, being a 30 year newspaper vet.
Cable can be upscale in the right stations, as can radio. I can put a program together to mail to millionaires in any zip code in the country, or into your home town. I can run an online program for a high end jeweler that wants to reach people in a certain geo And demographic area searching for Rolex watches, only.
Your Sunday paper is loaded with 35% less inserts, and insert revenue than just 8 years ago.
If you think Sunday papers are the only way to reach upscale audience, then why are so few businesses using newspapers to reach this group? You may say I am wrong, but in two minutes I just slammed your thesis into the ground.
Your "0nly game in town" scenario is 20 year old thinking. Do you think the PD in St. Louis or the Hammond Times has competition? lee's largest papers, and largest revenue producers are in towns surrounded by aggressive competitors. In smallest towns they have radio, cable, direct mail, email marketing, Angie's list, Craig's list, eBay, amazon, and Facebook changing the way people get news, consume info, and spend money. When was the last time you saw an ROP ad in the Northwest Times for Home Depot, Lowes, Sears, Walmart or any other large retailer?
The only game in town thinking is what let publishers think it was ok to raise ad rates year after year after year after year, even as circulation numbers were falling. This thinking, that we are the only game in town, has been one of the biggest reasons newspapers have suffered while the Internet has eaten their lunch.
The good old days are long gone, and they are not coming back. But I have been saying that to you, Longtime, for more than 5 years, right? This stock has seen it's all time high point. Act accordingly.