Hope that unlike Putin, they had thier shirts on when the medals were pinned to their chest....
My 7.97 from Thursday is sitting happy, but I didn't get much of a chance to scale in......
At the highs these were $0.05 each, so a $1,000 play. Lots of folks buy $1000 worth of nickel options on a volitile equity the last week. Yes, a pipe dream, but if they hit it one time in 50 they are making money......I've seen old folks on social security paydays do the same thing with lottery tickets......
Not sure if this is what's going on, but as much money dollar wise was spent on $23 calls.
I think we will stay quiet this week, giving the bulls confidence.
Just holding my last two lots. $3.17 and $3.26. Looking to sell one lot at between $4.20 and $4.40 over the next month or so. Will have to see whereelse I have for my gambling portfolio. Right now it got tied up with my once or twice a year, oil will go down play that is working very well. Not as volitle as NG, but safer. And I also am playing a few Russian equities, all working very well since I entered them last Thursday...so while NG will go down, hard to say the timeframe, the bleed from contract rows, etc. Still good risk reward to play it up , but not as tempting unless it drops below my entries to buy more. Good luck.
Oh, I fully agree, it's still way below normal. Yes, we will draw down some more. But it's the weather in California and Texas that you need to use to determine drawdown.
My question is what's your point. It doesn't matter if you you are at half a tank or a quarter of a tank, if all you need to do is drive around the block and the gas stations are waiting with "buy me" signs.
This very well could go to $1 someday, but I suspect it would reverse split before it does. It is a 3X leverage ETF that will lose money over time due to rolls, fees, etc. It's not designed to buy and hold. I don't expect that to happen, however for a year or more. My next target to sell a lot is $4.20 to $4.40.
While you are waiting for something that won't happen, you have missed a good opportunity to trade.
Ukraine does not have a viable army.
Crimea was recently part of Russia, not 150 years ago.
This is an economic world now, hence the fall of the Soviet Union who got outspent.
War is handled in a different forum now adays.
If you would bother reading older threads, you would see this was answered recently.
The US "edition" is a 1:4 ADR. So your calculations were EXCELLENT, but you need one more formula..... divide by 4.
Of course many foreign investments have very low P/E, due to concerns on accountability, integrity, reporting, regional issues....etc.
Easy math says this is down 40% already on the regional issues. Would you buy Bank of America if it were 40% from threats of foreign sanctions.
Those Russian Billionaires using their equities as collateral, if they get called is VERY bearish, as is capital flight. Large sells could be caused by these. Large buys could be bargain hunters, with a tolerance for risk.
While you can't trade these things technically over the long run, there was capitulation on all the Russian Equities and the US market between 12:00 and 1PM EST. I nibbled, and then watched the bounce back up continue on Friday morning and nibbled some more. Oscillations like the March 4th could turn and this could end up being a leg down, but if you buy in increments and are patient, I believe this will work out.
As red_tsar indicates, this is a little messy since most of the shares of an ADR are usually in the "host" country. While they might have to cover, or are concerned about margin calls, they also see a bargain. If you were interested in Yahoo and someone said foreigners might impose sanctions on the US, would you buy it at a 30% discount. (AKA YNDX).
OR if you were interested in bank of America and it sold down 40% due to possible sanctions against the US, would you buy it?
This isn't quite the banking crisis of 2009 that was fully global, although sanctions could lead to it. I think sanctions will be light, although things could trend long. A bank at 40% off, even in Russia is tempting. Its safer in my mind if you can handle some short term aungst than playing the other side of the coin. Those buying RUSS NEED for something to happen to get them in the money and keep them from losing. Those long Russian equities may get some short term pain, but like the March of 2009, a rebound is highly possible over time. Good luck.
Calls and Puts in RUSL and RUSS are very low volume but are attracting speculators. Some may be doing a bull/bear spread. I'd love to get some cheap six month out RUSL Calls, but they aren't very cheap and there is no liquidity. As you've indicated even if the action is weak, it could go on for some time.
I felt the Thursday 12:30-1PM est sharp selloff was a bit of capitulation until the next move, which is why I bought individual Russian equities and it was confirmed Friday morning. This could certainly be a short term oscillation, and break down further as it did on March 4th. There is only so much technical analysis you can use in these events, very short term functions, you can't use Technical Analysis on Putin, he'd just take his shirt off and laugh at you.
Hope you have some ice water in your veins.
Gotta look at the underlays. If you are playing with a 3X ultra up or down...
So as Trukensian stated, the Russia stocks do not move the same levels as the rest of the bubbly champagne drinking market. That would be too easy!
It was my fault. I'm buying SBRCY with my wife's egg money. I also touted LUKOY to some friends and I think they bought 10 shares instead of filling their gas tanks.
A few of us stupid folks think 30-35% is a lot of knock down. Maybe things will go down more, maybe much more, but why the heck would I buy a leveraged 3X BEAR ETF called RUSS when leveraged ETFs will go down from rolls, decay, fees, etc over time. If the BEAR wakes he can fatten up for awhile, but eventually he will go back to sleep. IF he never wakes, do I want to be messing with him at these levels.
So some of us are optimists, long viewed, or just stupid.....
Sorry to tip it, but it should give you a better buying point.....
If the theory is blood in the streets globally, then the better play might be a US based ULTA ETF. IF this fizzles, you break near even.
I believe a lot is already baked in with Crimea. Barring gunfights.
Yes, Putin is a long term wild card, but his ambitions won't materialize overnight.
So pretty dicey either way. Quite a bit is already 'baked' in, maybe not enough, but I don't believe we are in a bubble.
I left too much on the sidelines thinking that in the past, but will hold some dry powder to average in if things get bloody....and then sit in the red if needed, waiting.... or adding....
Maybe another way of putting it is that while I believe there is high risk in the Russian market, I'm of the bend things will stabilize someday.
I would rather be holding shares of Russian stocks bought at today's dollar and have them drop for a few months and rebound, than shares of RUSS and have them kiss, share some bad jokes, and vodka and make up. IF this settles RUSS will start to drop and NEVER go this high again.
Options rolls and expenses will eat it as all 3X Bears are eaten over time.
So I'd rather not play, or have something that can bounce back when the dust settles, although RUSS is certaily a high risk/high reward vehicle if someone has ice water for veins. MY natural gas calls, although lucrative, left me nervous.
Good luck....(as long as it's not counter to my luck!). :)
Good stuff truekensian, it truly depends on the risk/reward level someone is willing to take AND their timeframe. Those who sold at the bottom of the March 2009 fiasco were hurting. Funny this is five years later.... (not ha-ha funny).
I suspect we will see some action Monday if the vote goes through and then santions, so it could be up and down. If I had time to do the math, the right move most of the big boys do is to hedge. I went long SBRCY yesterday..hopefully not too long and a small piece of RUSL. I'll sleep no matter what happens, though I may need a beer or two!! :)
I've learned I can't call a top or a bottom, but if I dollar cost in I usually come out on top. I may not be fully vested at the right time, but I'm not in it feed the kids or buy them shoes...they are all adult now so that's their job. :)
Calling the Russian equities up or down is a #$%$ shoot today and should only be done with money one would take to the casino for fun...I do agree there is probably ore risk in the short run of down.....
Good to see it's business as usual....politics, vodka, and women.....
Certainly no one is stressed out here over a little Crimea conquest.....
I don't think that Europe has the spine for strict sanctions, definitely not the UK, and they are bigger trading partners than the US.
Given the question is posed assuming sanctions, the kind/depth would be the next question. While sanctions could have a large detrimental affect, the Russian markets are already down over 20%, depending on what you choose as a starting point. The Ruble is already at a 10 year low.
I don't believe Energy, and banks in particular have that much downside, especially banks. The world will go on and the products are needed. They are also better diversified than they had been.
Crimea appears to be embracing the process, so what do you do about a child that wants to emancipate itself, even if you are helping him against his parents wishes?
This is my uneducated guess and I enjoy arbitrage for my small trading portfolio. Real equities are probably a better play than RUSL or RUSS, even though they are higher risk/reward as the rolls of the options will decay the fund. I currently like SBRCY, the bank. Any trading here is high risk, and like the crash of 2009, while it could go long, will eventually settle, turnig a trade into a long or a loss if you need out quickly.
My "uneducated" guess, I highly respect your putting your thoughts out there as that's how we learn/think/gain concensus is that there is maybe another 20% downward risk from here, less in a few of the core holdings of the 3X's, (RSX). Upside could be as soon as next week, or as long as several months.
Not a trade/gamble for anyone investing.
PS. I don't think RUSS would quite make $100 under your scenerio..... maybe the low $50's..but it would be interesting.....
RUSL is the 3X Bull pair of RUSS.
I hit it about four hours early yesterday.
Use RSX if you don't have ice water in your veins and want to play a bounce, but it could be a long ride and not a short trade.
Also you can use RSX components. I like SBRCY, a bank, that should have little further impact from sanctions and is down over 40%, but again, markets don't usually discriminate and it could be a long ride.
You know...it's when something is so radical, so wicked, that it's udderly amazing.....
Might be some folks with English barriers here on the Ruskie boards....or other barriers.....