I don't think that they sell the company under $5 billions range. It is typical 6-10 times of peak revenue. So peak revenue as we know is around $1 billion so the offer should be around $6-$10 billions.
One more thing that we need to do is to wait for the data from BI. If BI data is not so good, ITMN will fly--from what I have read so far points to BI data is not good.
Relax and enjoy your ride to the $50 either hostile takeover or ITMN remains independent and sell the drug in the US.
I guess that the company will update the data tonight and shorts get scared to cover today before it is too late.
It is strange to what happens to PGNX and some other biotech in general as well. It makes me believe a lot of what happens in the stock market is directly analogous to a hold'em game.
For example, the dealer--PGNX--has already shown their hand (or at least shared with you the phase 2 data of PSMA-ADC and told you what to expect). Your opponent, the street, who has the big stacks, has completely slow-played this one. However, they place big bet on the river.
Do not throw away your hands and let them bully you away. The phase 2 data of PSMA-ADC is promising with CTC reduction of 50% or more in 70% of the patients with low NE.
Good things is about to come.
Per 13F filing yesterday, BB added 1 million shares to the total of 5,428,591 shares. They are very confident on holding AVNR shares and think that AVNR will be much higher in the long run.
They may know something that retail investors don't know! So, hold your shares tight and don't let the shorts scare you.
All the best!
•PSA reductions of =30% in ~38%
•Enrichment with biologically relevant biomarker
•Enrichment with easy-to-use biomarker
PSMA ADC CTC Responses to all patients
•CTC reductions of =50% in 70%
•All patients with Low NE had CTC reductions
The company is going to find a partner to continue clinical development for this drug.
Thanks a lot. I will listen to the conference call tonight and will get back to you.
A press release of the PSMA-DAC phase 2 data is out about an hour ago and is on the PGNX website. If you have time, please take a look at the press release and share with us your insights.
Thanks a lot for your time and kindness.
Thanks a lot for all the information you provided in here. I hope for the best tomorrow.
All the best!
An oncologist that I know provides the following opinion:
It appears that the trial drug, PSMA-ADC does have some anti-tumor effect in a significant subset of this group of study patients. However, the abstract deals exclusively with laboratory findings, which are customarily associated / linked with the disease process, rather than offering direct incite into any observed and relevant tumor responses. Hopefully, we will get a better total picture when the clinical and radiological follow-up to date is presented at the conference tomorrow.
Good luck to all longs!
Conclusions: PSMA ADC at 2.3 mg/kg was generally well tolerated in pts with progressive mCRPC previously treated with taxane. Anti-tumor activity, CTC and PSA reductions were observed at 2.3 and 2.5 mg/kg. Updated safety, tumor response and radiographic assessments from the full cohorts of 2.3 and 2.5 mg/kg will be presented. Testing in taxane naïve pts is also ongoing. Clinical trial information: NCT01695044.
Methods: Pts with progressive mCRPC following taxane and ECOG PS 0 or 1 were eligible. PSMA ADC was administered Q3 week IV for up to eight cycles. Safety, tumor response by prostate-specific antigen (PSA), circulating tumor cells (CTC), imaging, biomarkers and clinical progression were assessed. Dosing was initiated at 2.5 mg/kg and adjustment for tolerability was allowed. Results: Thirty five pts began treatment at 2.5 mg/kg. Due to neutropenia, the remaining 35 pts began at 2.3 mg/kg. All pts received prior docetaxel and abiraterone and/or enzalutamide. Forty one percent also received cabazitaxel. Adverse events (AEs) were consistent with what was seen in phase I; most common significant AEs were neutropenia (grade 4, 6.7% and 11.4% at 2.3 and 2.5 mg/kg, respectively) and peripheral neuropathy (grade 3 or higher, 6.7% (2.3) and 5.7% (2.5)). Two pts at 2.5 mg/kg died of sepsis. 43% of pts at 2.3 and 37% of pts at 2.5 had declines in CTC from 5 or more to less than 5 cells/7.5 ml blood and 57.1% (2.3) and 74.1% (2.5) had 50% or more CTC declines; 26.1% (2.3) and 16.1% (2.5) had PSA declines of 30% or more thus far. PSA and CTC responses were associated with higher PSMA expression on CTC and lower neuroendocrine (NE) markers. The CTC conversion rate (5 or more to less than 5) was approximately 80% in pts with low NE markers. Prior cabazitaxel or abiraterone and/or enzalutamide did not appear to affect response. Centralized assessments of images by RECIST of all pts are currently planned and will be presented. Conclusions: PSMA ADC at 2.3 mg/kg was generally well tolerated in pts with progressive mCRPC previously treated with taxane. Anti-tumor activity, CTC and PSA reductions were observed at 2.3 and 2.5 mg/kg. Updated safety, tumor response and radiographic assessments from the full cohorts of 2.3 and 2.5 mg/kg will be presented. Testing in taxane naïve pts is also ongoing. Clinical trial information: NCT01695044.
Abstract from the ASCO-GU doe PSMA-ADC is out and here is the summary of it. Please review it and let me know your insights.
Background: The abundant expression of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) on prostate cancer cells provides a rationale for antibody therapy. PSMA antibody drug conjugate (ADC) is a fully human antibody to PSMA linked to the microtubule disrupting agent monomethyl auristatin E (MMAE). It binds PSMA and is internalized and cleaved by lysosomal enzymes releasing free MMAE causing cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. We enrolled 70 patients (pts) in a phase II trial of PSMA ADC in taxane-refractory metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC).
NKTR issued a news release of the special monitor committee told the company to move ahead with the phase 3 trial pending the topline phase 2 result announcement in March. It is almost the same as PGNX.