some weak short covering on low volume :) Not many buyers tho still. Need to spark investor interest somehow
Everything that happened positively this week has been a driving force in my overall bullishness on this stock.
EU kept interest rates low, inflation coming in lower than expected, overall improvement even if slightly in EU
UK raises growth forcast from 0.6% to 1.4% and raises next year. Keeps interest rates low
US payrolls keep improving, huge consumer sediment improvement, GDP revised higher, companies earning more, US improves greatly then the rest of the world does. Rise in US trickles down to other countries.
Finally, while this hasn't happened yet I don't believe they will taper in December even with better numbers. Every is focusing on employment or inflation but are forgetting one of the reasons Bernanke didn't do it last time and it was because of the uncertainty of what the US government will do which is incompetent right now. This hasn't changed nor will they have any way to know what the government will do by the budget deadline in January so they won't risk tapering until after Congress gets its act together since Fed knows Congress can derail recovery itself.
Then look at Brazil. SID has 2 great quarters and the last quarter showed not too much of an improvement of Brazil aspect with steel being flat there. Well we knew that and then Brazil GDP went down 0.5% instead of the forecasted 0.3%. Well we already knew that and then we have all these great auctions happening to start improving infrastructure. So if SID was doing great with Brazil sucking last quarter which is baked into the price that means they don't have a positive outlook baked into the price and I think things will be more positive for BRazilian infrastructure growth.
And heck, falling r$ and SID sells ore in US$s is only beneficial for them.
Yay longs! I'm hoping to get rich on options personally so very excited about this week and I do appreciate the shorts for pushing down the stock from the $5.8 highs even if it made my November $6 calls expire worthless
search for the article on Bloomberg titled: "Usiminas Rallies on Goldman Sachs Steel Price Outlook: Rio Mover"
first paragraph: Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA and Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA rallied as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the chance of steel price increases in the first quarter of 2014 has risen.
why do you assume people have losses? This stock has rallied from ~$3 share or lower back a couple years ago. No losses here. Just gains. And those who owned shares when they offered the warrants have lots of gains as well..
wrong. no one has received dividends on their ADRs yet. Short covering yes and sucks for them with 50m+ shares short and only 4-5m shares traded a day.
Bump was due to goldman upgrade on steel industry for brazil based on falling r$ and their ability to increase the steel prices domestically because of lack of import risk. My Bloomberg app has the news article about the goldman upgrade.
Shorts are in for a nice ride if they are still holding their position. Bulls will be in for a nice ride as well.
actually the news was the upgrade by Goldman for the Brazilian steel companies which is what drove prices.
We already knew SID was trying and going to increase steel prices on the automakers on their conference call from Q3 and they were just finalizing with the auto companies.
The question is why goldman downgraded these companies just recently only to upgrade them based on the dropping real prices etc. Didn't they downgrade the companies based on deteriorating Brazilian outlook? meh. whatever I'll take the jump but they just seem to guess
I will eventually sell but not really going to use a stop. you see some spaceguy crying about being stopped out on the 20% correction from the top. I feel we will be going much higher so I just bought pretty much every call option out there for each timeframe up until jan 2016 :) All out of the money of course to maximize my bullish bet ;)
which will happen with them selling in us$s and converting to r$'s. The 3rd quarter was a pretty good quarter for SID and Brazil actually contracting 0.5%. Just wait till all these infrastructure auctions start finishing and they continue the infrastructure push for World cup and Olympics.
I'm kind of impressed by your call. While your constant bashing of the stock had no fundamental reasons for its decline you may be a "technical" trader which makes your previous bearish and now bullish calls making sense. You never did see your $4.99 or less a share call and it looks like SID is trying to break the down trend and go up even if it is on very poor volume. But the overall market is down, Brazil is down, GGB is down, but SID is fighting back.
I still am curious however about your calls... You have never actually given a good reason even from a technical standpoint for your calls but you may be correct here and as I hate to say it you were correct when we started the downward trend.
Still I'm a long term investor and not a "trader" so these "small" monthly moves don't mean much to me in the long term except to allow me to load up on my bullish bets more at a cheaper price.
Good luck to longs.
you see chicken little too? there's a reason it is up pre-market. 1st - the Real is strengthening due to the worse than expected GDC reported today for Brazil in the 3rd quarter. 2nd - This is technically old news especially compared to SID since they already reported 3rd quarter numbers so if they reported those record numbers on worse than expected GDC numbers especially around investments falling over 2% imagine how SID will look when Brazil finally gets its act together. which brings me to point #3 which is finally a silver lining for Brazil is that the Government is finally making good on auctioning off concessions to drive investment and infrastructure building. Getting almost 4x the minimum bid on the airport concessions and the others that have recently just happened in the last month are all positive for Brazil and its infrastructure.
So as chicken little runs around continues to bash without facts ask yourself why he doesn't ever state a fact to go with his statement. Is he afraid someone may challenge his theory?
Good luck longs :)
were you burned that bad to go from pumper to basher that quickly? You realize the reason the average investor doesn't outperform the market is because they invest based on emotion.... You seem to have no emotional competence for investing.
compared to your fear mongering strategy... impressive. haven't seen a fact yet from you besides a constant barrage of bashing. you are predictable you will cover your short, go long (while claiming to have picked the bottom of the most recent retracement), switch to your pumping alias and pump away here, eventually getting bearish again and start going short and bashing again and repeat your process.... except for the small problem of this being a bad stock to try and short for a while.
You probably would advise people to invest in bonds too
We had this happen on Nov 27th. Stars are aligning and if Brazil starts to deliver on their economic reforms/investments like they are starting to do with the auctions of the toll roads, ports, airports, etc. then the Brazilian real will strengthen against the dollar helping ADR prices of SID combined with the growth of SID.
Definition of 'Bullish Homing Pigeon'
A trend indicated by a large candlestick followed by a much smaller candlestick whose body is located within the vertical range of the larger candle's body. In both candlesticks, the stock price has to have closed down from the opening price. This pattern may indicate that there is a weakening of the current downward trend.
Investopedia explains 'Bullish Homing Pigeon'
If a bullish homing pigeon trend is seen in a chart it may be a good for traders to exit short positions and begin to enter into long positions. The worse the downward movement in the stock, the more likely a closing of a short position should be taken by a trader.
won't enter 4s unfortunately for you and I see you are a candlestick watcher? Saw the bullish homing pigeon just recently? Also a pretty jagged cup n handle was formed for the 1 year chart. if brazil surprises on the upside with their gdc on the 3rd and the Real strengthens against the dollar this thing will get a double bump up. Glad the shorts were able to finish out the cup n handle and push these shares down ~15% from the peak just when my dividends will hit the account for reinvestment. Also allowed me to get some Jan 2016 calls in before they start to get pricey.
Good luck to the longs and strong hands.
what is your definition of a long? Someone who bought in just recently?
Not sure my share average of $3.14 makes me feel like a boob. Maybe if the stock drops below that and I'm losing money but I doubt that happens anytime soon.