Saw that coming. Glad I bought some options yesterday and the day before.
Come on pop :)
Basically IMO they do the share buyback program to stop the short selling on the stock and give the stock support. If my assumption is correct they only purchased ~5m shares last time because the new buyback is authorized for 67.8m instead of 70.2m.
lol it was early in the morning... sad I work in finance and butchered that. I was looking at is as 72m instead of 70.2
I believe part of our most recent dividend was a prepayment of the annual/May dividend so I'm not sure it will be that high. Remember they lost money in Q4 because of the tax charge and still paid a dividend because it was a payment in advance or worded something like that.
as per namisa they said it wouldn't be resolved until at least September now but everyone is bargaining in good faith... we will see.
hey its the board whiner who complains about his 300 shares he owns and doesn't own. Glad to hear you are selling out again at $4.15 and hopefully you go find another stock to whine about. You add as much value as the stock newsletter pumpers....
yes I have my investment still in this company and have held it since my earlier purchases.
And yes I plan to hold through the next up cycle in steel before reducing my holdings and not day trade the waves up and down.
My goal isn't to sell at $4.15 and hope it goes lower only for it to start the next leg up and miss out.
You are one of the reasons the individual investor doesn't out perform the market. Good luck on your day trading but please don't whine here when things are not going your way because most of us really don't care about your 300 shares.
We just wish to share knowledge/news about the company/sector/industry/region that could benefit our decisions to buy or sell that we may miss and others find like the Russian steel bid SID did recently etc.
Just my 2 cents and good luck to the longs.
the issue with your analysis is that you are assuming more spending = share price appreciation but you are forgetting factors like cost of goods sold vs. cost of goods or cost of ore sold vs. cost of iron ore. Look at the old prices of Steel and ore when the share price hit ~$20/share. Now look at the price of steel and ore.
I "hope" we see $20 again however hope isn't a strategy.
A lot will depend how quickly the global economy recovers and how much is put into infrastructure building which is lacking in many countries.
Iron ore prices have been a drag on SID's share price as well however last time Iron ore dropped like this it spiked back up to around $150 per 62. I doubt it would snap back that high now because of all the extra capacity that has come online but who knows.
no one really cares about a Brazilian steel company or any steel company really.... need stronger global growth and draw down on iron ore and steel inventories.
You don't need billions to be a long term investor. I'm an average joe like yourself. I just am not some magical day trader who thinks they can out smart the market. And I'm more than happy holding onto my shares and collecting dividends while I wait for steel to come back into favor. SID has been very good to me from my purchases sub $3 last August.
I don't speculate on money needed in less than a year. Anyone who invests in the market trying to get some quick profits when they need money in less than a year is a fool who will one day get burned. That money should be held somewhere much safer than in stocks.
Well I've been watching the board and have some comments to make. First I believe we have seen a triple bottom and are starting the next leg up. Yes RGA you can start your bashing/whining once I'm done this post but I figure let me explain to the rest of the board your strategy and how it is flawed.
1st. It appears you are day trading this in a brokerage account because of your tax comment... Why you are not trading it in a Roth IRA is beyond me but whatever.
2nd. Lets discuss your trading range strategy. Yes you lucked out and got 3 dips into the $3.80's ranges. So I will use your self defined range of $3.85 - $4.20. I will even assume you are clairvoyant and sold at $4.20 and rebought at $3.85 each time for a profit of $0.35.
You said you day trade 1/4 of your shares which I will assume short term cap gain taxes and the other 3/4 will be long term cap gains.. To make math easy lets assume you have 400 shares
If you didn't day trade below is the full amount at long term cap gains.
400 shares @ $4/share = $1,600 investment
400 shares @ $5/share = $2,000
Gains = $400
If LT Cap gains then net is $340 (Not assuming commissions) But lets assume you are such a prominent day trader you get commission free trades.
Then your strategy of day trading 1/4
300 shares @ $4/share = $1,200 investment
300 shares @ $5/share = $1,500 investment
$300 at LT Cap gains = $255 net
100 shares day traded 3x for $0.35 profit each time = $105/profit * 25% (I'm assuming your in this tax bracket and not taking into consideration state taxes) = $73.75
$255 + $73.75 = $328.75
$340 $328.75 and I'm assuming transaction costs were the same when obviously they would not be.
So then the question becomes if the share price never drops below $4 again as you hope when do you buy back in? If you don't buy back in and the share price goes to $5+ then you put yourself at a lower profit than you would have been had you not tried to get fancy.
Since I broke my long silence I figure I'll go and start debunking your posts all at once.
SID Trading range is most likely broken after getting confirmation of closing above previous resistance of $4.15. Next resistance is ~$4.53. You should change your day trading range.
1. A market correction is 10% not 5%.
2. I'm assuming this statement is based on if Brazil wins the country who wins the world cup typically out performs by ~3% that year. But you didn't give any reasons or stats to your statement so I'm not sure exactly why you said this.
3. How does this make sense that there will not be strong demand for raw materials like in 2000 to 2012? The demand for raw materials has increased each year and continues to increase each year. China is importing record amounts of iron ore etc still. It is an over supply issue as supply is growing faster than demand but demand isn't lacking.
so next week has passed. And do did another.... When are you rebuying?
why still hold 3/4 of your holdings if the trade isn't worth the risk? All trades/stocks entail risk. You make no sense.
are you looking for someone to pat you on the back and say great job on market timing the recent trading range? You are trying to prove your point at the most opportune time for your strategy while ignoring the flaws long term of your strategy which is when the market begins its next move.
None of your data points above are showing net returns and only gross returns. We don't care about your gross returns nor actually your net returns but at least if you want to brag then brag in relevant #s.
Good luck to the longs :)