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Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) Message Board

nickeyblaze 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 3:57 PM Member since: Mar 19, 2004
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  • nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 27, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    true. Hence the "idea" the markets are ready for a pull back of 5-10%. Sure you'll be right eventually. At 5% you were right ~5-6x over the last 3 years (I just guessed at the 5%+ pull backs and didn't pull a chart to count) but a 10% pullback you'd be incorrect for a while now unless you wanted to split hairs and talk intraday or only 1 market but not all 3 mentioned.

    But if the market goes up 15% first before a 5% pull back do you ever get that 5% pullback you wanted to buy in or did you just buy in 10% higher than your previous statement?

    Kinda like I'll buy back in below $4 when selling at $4.15. Sure SID has pulled back over 15% from the ~$5.30 highs a month or so ago but we are still ~13-15% higher than the $4.15 sell.

  • Reply to

    Come to PAPA

    by rga1298 Aug 22, 2014 11:25 AM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 27, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Do explain how the power of the buyback is getting weaker. I'm confused.
    If the share price is going lower as you believe wouldn't the power of the buyback be stronger since they buy back more shares at a lower price leaving more capital for more buybacks or whatever else they decide to do?

    Right now SID hasn't announced any of those special dividends like they did last year which is fine. Buy back lots of shares now to reduce share count and increase dividend when they announce their annual dividend. The companies dividend philosophy hasn't changed. It is still 25% of net profits. Less shares mean more profits per share means higher divvy. Seems like a positive strategy to me.

    By the way have you figured out how to tell how many shares they've bought back yet for each of their share repurchase programs?

  • nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 27, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    its not an exchange of ideas to make guesses with no information to support your "guess".

    1. Dow/NDQ/S&P are ready for a pullback of 5-10%? This is a random statement made by every market pundit over the last couple years. Please state why you feel this way such as you don't believe it is positive news that over 70% of S&P 500 companies outperformed on both revenue and EPS. That at least has substance. Or say they are due for a pull back because companies are slowing down their massive share repurchases which is decreasing the # of shares outstanding and boosting EPS. Or make something up besides a random guess.
    2. Do you even do google searches before making random comments? Had you done a search for china steel production 2014 the first article that pops up is titled "China, U.S. Lifts Global Crude Steel Production in July". Sure you may say global steel production is up 1.7% YOY, USA up 2.3%, and china is up 1.5% but utilization is down to 75.4%. But then you would need to take into consideration China being the largest steel producer and largest importer of iron ore will benefit iron ore prices which benefits SID's iron ore biz. Then higher iron ore prices + coking coal + dry bulk shipping = higher steel prices = benefit to SID.

    So sure. share ideas. Not random guesses.

  • Reply to

    Come to PAPA

    by rga1298 Aug 22, 2014 11:25 AM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 26, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Odd Analogy with the ISIS and an incorrect assumption on my investment strategy.

    I sold half my position in the high $4s. Holding onto my long term shares and LEAPs and put my cash to work in coal stocks. Holding 4 of those for their eventual return to normalcy.

    I may sell out of my coal holdings to jump back into SID should it drop down to your wish list price. Heck below $4/share would lower my cost basis and be a benefit to me and the company during its buy back.

    That is just about me and my thought process.

    As for your question what do they do when they run out of money why don't you look to see what their cash burn is compared to their cash reserves. Do you even know how long it would take for them to "run out of money" or are you just fear mongering with a random statement? Did you ever figure out how to see how many shares are being repurchased each cycle?

    If you can't answer those simple questions how can you call yourself a "good hunter"?

  • Reply to

    Well, what will happen when the elections get here?

    by jml1968 Aug 20, 2014 5:36 AM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 25, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    I find it difficult to compare the past pattern to the future when the fundamentals are not the same. The float is dropping and down ~10% with total share count down 5%.
    Iron ore went from a pretty decent price down to the lows it is now.
    Steel prices have bottomed/slowly started to increase (flat steel for example).
    Previous capex spending is coming online with increased Iron ore output (cost to mine

  • Reply to

    Come to PAPA

    by rga1298 Aug 22, 2014 11:25 AM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 25, 2014 6:38 PM Flag

    You again? lol you don't give up but I guess you needed to wait for the share price to pull back some for your balls to drop and start talking again.

    You said above once the company stops the share buy back then what happens? They focus their resources on growth areas or other places to enhance shareholder value. You are so narrow minded in your investment thought process you can't comprehend the managements buyback timing/strategy.

    Until you can add some sort of value to the board why not just stay away? You are more like a cancer to company message boards in investments you claim to own.

    Come back when you can tell the board how many shares SID repurchased in their last share buyback and add some value.

  • Reply to

    Looks like we are fading on no new news

    by jml1968 Aug 14, 2014 1:20 PM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 15, 2014 7:00 AM Flag

    hey RPA another seller who stays around to heckle the longs.

    Ever think that the stock trades off macro events and not necessarily on just SIDs news/fundamentals.

    Of course I'm sure your side comment was taking into consideration the overall outlook for the Brazilian elections now that one of the presidential candidates died in a plane crash who was expected to take some votes from Delma and make it hard for her reelection.

    Or maybe you bring your snide comment because of SID trying for a 3rd time to buy US steel assets.

    Or maybe you just are bored have nothing better to do and no value to add to the world anywhere else except by heckling longs here.

    Why don't you try posting your "facts" again only to have them challenged and you delete the initial false post?

    Sheesh. At least post something beneficial instead of trying to take jabs at people trying to make money. Post why you think we didn't go straight up to $6 which if you know anything about technical analysis, support, resistance, fibo levels, etc. you could make your argument why we hit resistance, consolidated the trading base, looking for support, for the next leg up to $6+.

    And for any long term investor like myself I'd prefer the shares to take a break and go down. SID has been buying back shares at a good pace reducing the float by almost 10% and total share count by almost 5% and they did so at much lower prices.

    my 2 cents on another worthless commenter.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by kfried3123 Aug 7, 2014 3:35 PM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 7, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    ah I see what you mean.

    No that was the February dividend that paid out in March. Outside the US sometimes they go day/month/year unlike here we go month/day/year.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by kfried3123 Aug 7, 2014 3:35 PM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 7, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    I use google translate to read all the stuff that is in Portuguese. you can read websites or pdf's.

    Where did you find the dividend info?

  • nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 4, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    what poll shows her pulling away? Headline articles today and over the weekend tell the opposite story.

    Article Posted on Bloomberg this morning "Brazil Pessimism Melts as Rousseff Support Drops in Polls"

    You have already sold your shares. Why stick around posting false information?

  • Reply to

    Here we go!

    by jml1968 Aug 1, 2014 2:40 PM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Aug 1, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    my random guess is this is short covering into the weekend before earnings to avoid the unknown of how many shares were repurchased and the results for SID.

  • Reply to

    GGB poor 2Q on weak domestic sales

    by rpalmerol Jul 30, 2014 4:32 PM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 31, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    you can be worried about sales being down but the share buybacks will support the EPS and improve future EPS with reduced dividend payouts.

    Selling because domestic sales are weak during a quarter with the world cup may be a little narrow minded. Remember GGB only recently got into the flat steel market that SID specializes in. GGB I believe is more long steel/rebar with the benefit of using scrap steel to help with their costs.

    Look at Q2 GDP growth in the US at ~4% along with new infrastructure partnerships being announced. Infrastructure spending will eventually pick up and when it does it will support steel prices.

    Do you honestly believe we will continue to see reduced spending like there was after the financial crisis or do you think finances will start to mend and people will build? Good luck on your investment thesis.

  • Reply to

    SID UPGRADED MUST READ - OMG!

    by fredricklennoxabp Jul 28, 2014 12:37 AM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 28, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    you replied with the wrong shell account. lol

  • Reply to

    HFTs effin w this stock on a daily basis

    by what_iss_man Jul 18, 2014 12:59 PM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 18, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    that is a misleading statement. There is nothing wrong with investing in a stock like this if you are an investor and not a trader. Long term holding doesn't affect an investor nearly as much especially if the HFT doesn't cause the company to go out of business.
    Sure let them push down the share price shorting the heck out of it when there is no news, negative overall news, low volume, or whenever they have the ability to do so. SID has a set dividend strategy which kicks out dividends whether the share price is $3/share or $20/share. Those who are investors and reinvest those dividends just reinvest at a lower price right now.

    So your comment is a pretty poor understanding of the markets and investing in general to make such a suggestion.

    HFT messes with institutional investors way more than a mom n pop buying 5k or 10k shares.

  • Reply to

    And this gapped up why?

    by usumacinta123 Jul 18, 2014 11:18 AM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 18, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    no clue honestly if you are asking short term.
    Long term trend up
    Share repurchases are going to reduce float and improve EPS even if earnings don't actually improve just due to lower share count
    Global markets will eventually start growing and steel is needed for infrastructure growth
    high cost producers are going out of biz. SID is a low cost steel producer and low cost Iron ore producer so they can weather price drops. The real question is how long will it take the slack from capacity to disappear and prices to appreciate vs. debt they have to repay. Most their debt is longer term however so they have time.

    So because of all that I feel generally good with the investment. Volatility sucks but if you don't need the funds in the short term who cares. I'd prefer share price be down so SID can repurchase at a lower price using less cash than if the shares were $10/share and they were trying to do same repurchases.

  • Reply to

    And this gapped up why?

    by usumacinta123 Jul 18, 2014 11:18 AM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 18, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    new share repurchase program announced today for another month to buy over 60m shares.

    also yesterday was a selloff due to global selloff from Ukraine and Gaza headlines. in all reality what effective would that have on every companies earnings? bad for Malaysia airlines sure and maybe some other companies but not everyone.

  • nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 18, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    per my research reports I get Morningstar estimates CSN produces iron ore at $30/per metric ton at flagship casa de pedra mine, $15 to get its product to dedicated raw materials port, and $20 to ship the ore to asia. All in cost is higher than Rio Tinto, BHP, and Vale but MUCH lower than the $97 62 percent price it fetches in China.
    Also, share buy backs are reducing outstanding shares which increase EPS which then I believe also increases dividend because net income is divided by less outstanding shares. their dividend mandate of 25% net income doesn't change but shares outstanding has decreased and possibly substantially.
    China had positive news with 7.5% GDP growth and there are lots of infrastructure plans being announced in China (shantytown renovations), India, and I'm hoping positive surprise announcements for US or Europe since lots of people need to do infrastructure buildouts.
    All that being said is why I am positive on SID.
    Also Met coal has decreased which helps increase profitability for steel companies.

    my 2 cents

  • Reply to

    I guess the buybacks are over.

    by uppekhahead Jul 17, 2014 12:06 PM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 18, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    geez. another 60+ million shares authorized. I'm very interested in what they reduce their share float to after all of these buy backs. The article I found in Portuguese on the net purchases by Itau show it is a huge net buyer of SID shares while mostly all other brokerage firms are net sellers. This shows the buybacks are happening which is great. I just wish we knew how many shares were being purchased each round and I doubt we find out until next quarterly earnings.

  • nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 18, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    need to remember when there isn't any company specific news the stock trades at the whims of macroeconomic events and headline news.
    Technically it was a good thing for SID which had been pushed up by the share buybacks lately. Just means SID was able to buy a lot of shares at a much cheaper price yesterday because of the quick drop.

  • Reply to

    I guess the buybacks are over.

    by uppekhahead Jul 17, 2014 12:06 PM
    nickeyblaze nickeyblaze Jul 17, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    your guess is incorrect. Learn how the buybacks are being done. You will need to search and the answer is in Portuguese which if like me you don't speak portuguese will need to input the web address in google translate. It clearly shows since July the major buyer of SID shares has been the company selected to do the buy back with pretty much all other brokerage houses being net sellers of SID shares and I'm pretty sure the majority if not ALL the shares are being bought back in the IBOV market.

    Anywho. Nothing can/should just go straight up or straight down otherwise there won't be a stable base of shareholders for support levels. That is why we will blow through a lot of the resistances back to the old 52 week highs when news/financials permit.

    My 2 cents.

SID
4.10-0.08(-1.91%)3:40 PMEDT

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