Apples and oranges. Walmart's online is only 2% of total. Do you think its easier to have a higher growth rate from a small base or a larger base? I know this is a brain buster. I'll give you an analogy (an analogy is a similarity between like features of two things, on which a comparison may be based). Tavaris Jackson (backup QB for Seattle Seahawks) had a better season last year than Peyton Manning as his passer rating was 25 points higher than Mannings. Its doesn't matter that Jackson only threw 13 passes all season long.:
Like that... "What wallstreet doesn't understand is that this new CALI warehouse just shows they have more expenses" and yet I'm sure they make way more money than you. Life just isn't fair when the smart people finish last.
How many years have you've been waiting for this the blow.. meanwhile missing out on returns. Its 100% accurate that there will be some level of a correction sometime in the future. There always is.. problem is you can't predict when and how big. You could have missed the 50% upside in the market over the last few years waiting for this to blow... have a 30% corection happen and still be down compared to those who rode it all the way.
Sure, and your just providing your insight out of the concern of the impacts to society... not at all because a stock decline would benefit you financially.
Maybe you should offer your services to Amazon as a Strategic Advisor specializing in India. Guessing they haven't done the research that you've done.
maybe, but not unless Revenues stall badly in my opinion. I doubt earnings misses would do it. Yearly revenues would be above market cap at $150 price which would be a first for Amazon I'm sure.
Funny how most of this board thinks its so obvious a downturn or collapse is coming based on crunching a PE ratio. As if they've descovered some arbitrage situation. Its entertaining reading how people try to convince themselves and others that they've figured out what will come next which is an impossible feat. So called experts were saying Apple was destined for $1000 when it was peaking at $700 a few years back and 6 months later is was below $400. If they can't predict the future what makes you think you can
I would suggest you throw some serious cash on a $50 strike price put for a year or two out... make a fortune.
People have been bashing this stock for years with the same arguments around investing 101 metrics and ratios with readily available public information. The track record isn't good so why is this time different. Let me guess, you aren't the same people from 3 months ago calling an imminent collapse before this ran up to $360 or the same people calling for an imminent collapse 3 years ago at $200.. you are much smarter I'm sure. Only one thing is certain and fact.: An investor would have realized much better returns in the last few years doing exactly the opposite of this boards sentiment. Keep trying to rationalize to yourself that you can predict whether a coin flip will be head or tails..good luck with that.
Gross margins are increasing basically every quarter., they are just investing heavily in R&D. My guess is that if Amazon investing in R&D levels similar to Walmart they would e be turning a hefty profit (just a guess).. Go ahead and try to come up with rational as to why your trade will be successful to alleviate the stress of the uncertainty around the market or this stock. I'm sure I could have found exactly your logic in a post years ago when the stock was $200 a share. What will happen to any stock over a few week or couple month time period is just a coin flip. If it was that easy to crunch some values from public information and make obvious trades and easy cash... wouldn't everyone be a winner. If it comes up right for you than I guess you can look back and claim you nailed it on the head.
Why do you think they aren't making money because of their price points? Their gross margins are growing every quarter. They are just investing heavily in R&D. If they decided to set their ambitions at online Walmart and invested at Walmart levels of R&D they'd be turning a substantial profit. If someone believes their time is valueless and wants to waste gas and time heading over to Walmart to save $10... they'll never be Amazon customers. That's not to imply anything about Amazon stock price... Amazon the company vs Amazon the stock are two different arguments.
Interesting to me how sensitive the stock price is after this earnings announcement. What has really changed:
- Strategy of reinvesting cash back into business to grow Rev is not new
- I doubt that the earnings miss was performance related in any way. Amazon could have easily met the street’s earnings estimates by scaling back some on reinvestment without affecting sales for this quarter ($50M less earnings than expected on $19B sales isn’t staggering)… Amazon would probably argue it would put growth trajectory at risk several years down the road
- So probably no change to performance, no change to overall strategy.. just surprise on aggressiveness of reinvestment strategy.
- Gross margins grew so doesn’t appear that they are resorting to cutting prices to drive Rev
- If the return on this reinvestment doesn’t bear fruits in the form of continued Rev growth than that would be an indication of misguided strategy or performance
- This stock may be volatile but if economies of scale, efficiencies and customer satisfaction are their competitive advantages.. they aren’t the easiest areas for competition to gain ground in the long run.
"Read my lips" in a written post. With a start like that no place to go but down.
Interesting, I bet you posted the same thing in early 2012 when there was a steep sell off from $250 to $180 in late 2011 followed by a rally and then of course the implosion. The stock market is so predictable.
Hmmm, well they haven't reported significant earnings for many years and yet investors with much more money than you and me continue to invest and push price up. If your time is worthless and you want to spend two hours getting on your bike and riding to Walmart to save gas and save $10 on cheaper stuff... then Amazon isn't for you.