The quarterly results for this Q will be OK, within expectation. But Groupon has already broadcasted it by news release. The stock jumped on these news. It is all priced in.
Next Q guidance will be much worse, considering all the holiday returns. If you check yahoo analyst estimate, it has been slowly revised down recently. The institute sold 10% holdings compared to last Q. The only people that are buying are retailer traders and maybe Cooperman himself. He is in trouble and he knows it.
1. Market topping, needs correction.
2. GRPN has risen from 5.7 since last ER to 8, based on an upbeat ER. However, GRPN hasn't changed much since their last ER. Online traffic has gone up during the holiday, but it is only seasonal. Since then, traffic has declined. There is no sustained growth.
3. GRPN plans to sell TMON. If it is working out well, why would it even consider selling it after within less than a year of acquisition.
4. A lot of hype came after Cooperman showed his clown show on CNBC. Again, does any hedgefund manager need to blatantly pump their holdings if things are truly going well? The only reason is he knows he's made the mistake and gets desperate and uses his influence to pump and dump.
5. There are lots of complaints about Groupon Goods. The same problem over and over. People don't get timely delivery for Christmas so the post holiday return will be overwhelming.
This Groupon is the same Groupon as 6 month ago. The business model is not working out well. Insider selling is non-stop. Amazon Local, LivingSocial and Yelp can do the same thing and they are doing the same thing. Why does Groupon have any edge over others?