Means a trend reversal is imminent , NUGT needs to retrace some ... up too fast in the past month and a half.
Took my lucky profits today and am watching. Yea, ok ... people are buying that's why its going up. But there is no solid reason when all the news is bad for oil ... so many false rumors, meetings failing, Countries (Saudi, Russia, Iran) all threatening to pump even more. To me ... oil is setting up for a big fall ... as we have heard many times before ... Day trade UWTI/DWTI only. Just trying to figure out when the bottom falls out of oil ... and it will.
Might look for an out on UWTI and then buy back a little lower. Trade smart
Iran is smoke and mirrors ... they will pump as much oil as they can ... I'll wait to buy again in the 1.30's.
Got my profits locked in before UWTI takes them back again ...
and locking in the 40%+ profit over the last couple days because a lot of bad news has been delivered. These same shorts will then reposition themselves short again ... same thing happened over the past week. But this bad news and no good news on the horizon will not bode well for oil. trade smart.
It's the old, it can't get any worse attitude. .... don't count on it.
which is why it will easily get there again. Had no real reason to bounce as high as it did out of the 20's other than a FAKE report of Saudi cutting production. Now the Saudis know they don't actually have to cut production, all they have to do is float a story of a possible meeting and it sends oil to the 30's.
Agreed, I believe this morning is a setup for the 10:30 EIA report. Drawing in buyers now so they can dump on them a little late. Always a possibility of 'fudged' numbers that make things look a little better than they are. I haven't checked the estimates of what will be reported but I bet the estimates are pretty high so that they can say they came in under expectations. May get a pop but it won't be sustained.
That's the biggest red flag you'll ever see ... don't miss it, trade smart ... hope your not holding, futures plunging now.
I don't get how weather has anything to do with it ... if anything it should be the reverse ... Millions of cars not on the roads burning fuel, Trucking companies and delivery services cut back trucks on the road. People might say that everyone home is burning more heating oil ... but I say they would be heating their home whether there was a storm or not. Who knows.
Don't forget demand ... if demand dips ... china and world slowdown ... then we become even more oversupplied.
Even more right under your nose is the lack of slowdown in oil production and the slowing of demand ... those are proven facts. Hoping for instability and war is not a good trading strategy.
Problem is you assume that you just "startup an oil well". Not that easy, have to find workers who have moved on to other jobs and the oil company has to determine if the cost to startup the well is worth it. Not cheap to bring oil wells back online, think regulations and safety reviews and such. With the oil companies being drained of cash with low prices it makes it even harder to startup old wells. And not just old wells US companies stop exploration before shutting down existing wells. So without new wells waiting, if existing ones dry up than they are left without reserves to pump from ... so then the Saudis and others step in.
"when refineries shut in October or March for maintenance" ... refineries convert oil to gasoline and other fuels. Not much effect on the raw oil being furiously pumped from the ground to the point of massive oversupply driving the price lower and lower.
When he does nothing, oil will collapse again. But not going higher, just stopped from diving today on the inventory report.
out momentarily .. .you are welcome.
Wish that were the case but just a lull in the action ... I think we trend down towards the close, probably starting just before 3:00pm. Oil having a struggle to keep its head up