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VMware, Inc. Message Board

nip7890 668 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: May 7, 2006
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  • Reply to


    by who_gnu_1235 Jul 31, 2014 2:44 PM

    I've reviewed with prior insider purchases - in general it is weak with very poor execution for a bank at this time. add on that there's no dividend and no particular catalyst over next 12 months and I think there's not much attraction...other than the insider buying and that the shares are off 50% from highs. even if the additional expenses were not incurred in the past quarter, full year EPS would be running at about 60 cents/share and PE of 16 - on the high side for banks in general - and again, no dividend.

    I'll continue watching, but unless it makes another leg down I'll probably avoid.

    regarding market - it's "buy into weakness Friday" again...should be an interesting day. looking for some bounce back next week, though might still see a little weakness early Monday before sanity begins to return.

  • Reply to


    by nip7890 Jul 25, 2014 2:45 PM

    solid earnings posted, good guidance, dividend declared.

    any weakness in the share price is a buying opportunity. below $3.20 is strong buy + 6% dividend.

    I'm looking to go bargain hunting today across the board. continue nibbling on CLFD - I sold prior to earnings announcement and picked up a tiny bit after the drop, looking for more today - insiders bought over past two days

  • Reply to


    by who_gnu_1235 Jul 18, 2014 9:39 AM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 29, 2014 11:27 PM Flag

    I figure it's time to have a solid core holding that I don't trade with. If I can grab more shares lower and flip for profit to lower basis on the core shares, then great...but I think I need to put a stake in the ground understanding that eventually they are going to get an approval and have some successes.

  • Reply to


    by who_gnu_1235 Jul 29, 2014 7:17 PM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 29, 2014 10:14 PM Flag

    First impression is not to buy. Not understanding why their purchase price is $3.86 when shares are nowhere near. Also high yield income fund will take a hit with interest rate hikes. Looks like all those insiders blindly buy every July/December. Lastly, go to the SEC site and pull up the last Form N-Q and look at the fund's an entire fund of low quality junk bonds. These are the things that are currently way overpriced by people chasing yield.

  • Reply to

    The best defense is a good offense

    by nip7890 Jul 25, 2014 10:48 AM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 28, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    No problem. Also with CZNC they just renewed their share repurchase for 5% of the outstanding shares.

  • Reply to

    The best defense is a good offense

    by nip7890 Jul 25, 2014 10:48 AM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 28, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    Need to be careful on the utilities as they are interest rate sensitive and many are at historic high PEs over 15. I stay away from the larger banks and stick to smaller caps with good dividend and takeover prospects. CZNC is high yielder over 5%, good EPS (all banks are coming in a penny or two under estimates and yoy quarter). PFS is another I have and am buying as it dips - they just completed a merger and should see earnings get a boost as a result over next 12 months. The other boring one I have is AROW - definitely takeover potential. Stay away from the bigger names as they will get caught up in the media and there's too much volume with them - you're at the mercy of the big boys.

  • Reply to


    by who_gnu_1235 Jul 28, 2014 10:04 AM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 28, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    Good job...if I bought at the bottom of the channel, that would likely be the time it breaks lower. I'll stay away from it so I don't jinx you!

  • Reply to


    by who_gnu_1235 Jul 18, 2014 9:39 AM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 28, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Just bought at 4.0089 - was going to buy more, but then decided to buy half and will buy other half if it goes to $3.75.

  • nip7890 nip7890 Jul 27, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    I think you have to discount the "analyst" estimate entirely. Read one of David Dreman's books and the research surrounding analyst estimates in general, then you would have a completely different view of what they are worth. You invest in the company and the potential, not if they meet/beat/miss what the analyst predicts. In this case, even more so.

  • Reply to

    Game time is just about over

    by nip7890 Jul 18, 2014 12:11 PM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 26, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    Thanks for your all your concern, but my decision making is just fine when it comes to CLFD - not arrogance at all. I understand how it trades/moves, have been through this last year and last quarter, and make my purchases accordingly. I also understand when it's time to sell. As far as small caps getting hammered, you should use it to your advantage when shares of undervalued companies get blindly taken down unjustifiably - and I'm talking in general, completely aside from CLFD...there are lots of great bargains as a result of the selling this past week.

  • nip7890 by nip7890 Jul 25, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    just saw your post there - good for you. when they announce earnings next week they'll also declare the dividend.

    as I mentioned, for the past couple quarters shares have slumped going into earnings. no big deal. if shares dip below $3.20 before earnings I'll buy lots more. shares have been sticking within the $3.30 to $3.60 range steadily for 6 months now. earnings will be up this quarter. so more will depend on the outlook for remainder of the year. it should be a good earnings report though.

  • Start acquiring those small/mid-cap banking stocks with good dividends and rotating out of the garbage.

    Next 6 to 12 months are going to be painful for the rest of the market. The market may not dive, but I don't think we're going to see any major upward move like the past couple years. I'm almost as negative as you were at the beginning of the year.

    It's ok to have some speculation stocks, just don't make them the bulk of your portfolio and spread out the buys to average down.

  • Reply to

    Earnings posted - meh

    by nip7890 Jul 24, 2014 8:07 AM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 24, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    We've seen this before and if you sell into this, you're just feeding the panic. If you will sleep better taking your money off the table with your profit, then that's the thing to do. However, though it may not be time to load the boat, you need to keep your head on straight and look at things objectively. Company grew the top line, grew profits, grew backlog, outlook is still very good. History has shown that when this happens, it's best to slowly acquire on the way down. That's my plan - it's worked well before, I'm confident it will this time too.

  • Reply to

    Earnings posted - meh

    by nip7890 Jul 24, 2014 8:07 AM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 24, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    there is going to be a negative spin on the bottom line. that's just the way it is. time to buy will be in a few weeks once all the dust settles.

    longer-term prospects are still excellent, unfortunately Mr. Market is focused on the numbers and is looking for any reason to shoot down shares at this time. I really don't see any catalysts between now and the next earnings report, so we're likely looking at dead money for 3.5 months.

  • Lumpiness cited - not out of the ordinary, but I think expectations for a better quarter had been set for higher year over year growth.

    Near-term weakness in the shares likely.

    Shorts will likely profit.

  • Reply to

    Google Question

    by huntdrew88 Jul 23, 2014 2:28 PM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 23, 2014 6:38 PM Flag

    google purchases product from Clearfield used in their rollout of google fiber.

    not so complicated.

  • Reply to

    When the market hands you a gift

    by chart_watcher99 Jul 21, 2014 3:08 PM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 21, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    "as accounting penalties can be steep"

    You're lost.

  • Reply to


    by nip7890 Jul 18, 2014 2:57 PM
    nip7890 nip7890 Jul 21, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    check Y! Finance headline story this afternoon "3 sectors to buy as stocks sell off":


    One of the laggards of 2014, financials are a sector Ablin’s eying right now. “The financials are pretty cheap,” from a relative point of view he says in the attached video. “Net interest margins are virtually nothing, but as the taper concludes, and potentially the 10-year treasury rate (^TNX) rises, then net interest margins increase, lending potentially increases (certainly that’s what the Fed would like to see), and banks move to profitability.”

    With yields potentially rising, Ablin feels this creates a favorable environment for banks.

  • nip7890 by nip7890 Jul 21, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    7 cents and we were discussing at $7 in December.

    LOL - thanks for keeping me away.

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