I sent a question to Mark Miyata, and am waiting on a reply. Simple question and not real happy that he's ignored it. He could very easily have replied with the answer, or that he cannot tell me, but we both know to ignore is not the right thing to do. We'll see if I get a reply in the next day or two.
correct. I think we're seeing volatility in the short-term as a result of big boys shorting heavily trying to scare BYI shareholders to sell and take their short-term profits with the threat that they'll lose it all. then they turn around cover and go long and wait patiently for the cash. additionally, it's been a crazy week for the markets in general - shares easily taken down on the days when DJIA was getting hit.
as it becomes clearer that the deal will go through, probably over next 6 to 8 weeks, the shares will be less volatile and slowly trend higher.
sorry for the harshness, but the question was silly and shows a deep misunderstanding of investing in general. if you are unable to understand "valuation" then I don't know how you invest in any company in the first place. though harsh, obviously I'm not the only one who got a laugh out of the question.
thanks but not interested.
- burning cash and will need to issue shares in next 6 to 9 months
- did 1 for 10 reverse split in 2012
I can easily see it just bleed out under $1 again, reverse split, issue new shares to raise money, etc.
I bought another chunk of DRAD early yesterday at $3.15 - much more comfortable with that.
can I count on you posting the same message 2 or 3 times a day, every day, for the next 5 months? seriously, can I count on you to do that for us all?
if you haven't figured it out yet, I really don't care what the market is saying. why did you disappear all afternoon - because BYI shares didn't continue lower? the market was saying something else for a few hours and left you speechless?
I have news for you - Perelman doesn't care what the market says and neither does Haddrill. Money talks, BS walks - seems to be fitting in this situation.
If you read the contents of the BYI 8-K, you will see attached letters from Haddrill to Regulatory Agency Executives and Staff Members, to Customers and Casino Operators, and to Supplier Partners. Reading those letters you will see that the expectation is that this will be consummated.
BYI shareholder approval is guaranteed so long as the shares trade at a discount to the offer price - and the greater the discount the better. SGMS shareholder approval is guaranteed since we know how Perelman will vote.
so, since we know shareholders will approve the deal from both sides, we know that financing commitments are in place, the only thing that stops the deal is regulatory. since we are seeing consolidation in the sector, there is really very little that regulators could be concerned about. it's certainly not what you would point to as the reason for everyone selling and driving shares lower - is it?
and I've learned that the market can be very irrational at times - especially times when sentiment is extremely negative in general.
we have been told that they have financing commitments. we have been told this is a friendly buyout with both boards agreeing. we see that the $83.30 offer price is fair (thanks to what you believe the market is saying).
the tea leaves are telling me that we have lots of BYI shareholders who saw a quick 30% gain in their shares, massive selling to protect those gains along with new short sellers, and now it is simply scaring more BYI shareholders to sell because of the fear mongering and belief that if they don't sell, they'll lose all their gains.
it all works for me. I'll sit with my thesis and be patient.
if the deal falls apart for some reason, SGMS shares instantly go up 20%.
"1. Who pays for all theselawyersto investigate into this? Cause it makes no sense for this many to look into this."
Ambulance chasing lawyers roll their fees into the lawsuit and hope court awards them fees which may come out of any award.
"2. Does this mean the deal can be stopped? What's the likelihood?"
Deal can be "stopped" for any number of reasons. However, the likelihood/probability of the reasons surfacing are not very large.
"3. I gather the price can keep going down until this is settled? Could this take a year?"
The price can go up or down any day of the week. "This" is not really one of the reasons that a buyout would be stopped. On the contrary, if anything, it reinforces that the $83.30 offer is a very good one.
"4. In the shareholder information we get was this consideration ever mentioned? I don't remember it or being asked to vote on it but I gather we don't get asked those things."
What consideration? There will be a vote sent to all shareholders in the coming weeks/months.
"5. If the sale does go thru scientific games is like a $8 stock so is buying balls going to turn that stock into a $80 stock?"
Some people should be required to pass a competency test before they are allowed to open a brokerage account - i.e. you.
if it's going to be accretive from day one, it means the profits are more than the cost of capital. they can handle the leverage.
if you review Perelman's history, you see that he lives for deal making using leverage. I'll trust his judgment.
Doesn't matter whether the market likes the deal, SGMS has the commitment for the funds for all cash $83 price tag. The market can remain irrational for as long as it likes. In the mean time, people who are smarter than you are feeding your fear mongering and at the same time acquiring cheap shares to make easy money.
Should the deal be called off for some reason (which it won't be), SGMS shares immediately go higher (I'm also buying SGMS shares), BYI price target goes back up to $90/share and business continues as usual...but since there is now publicity around this, another suitor will likely emerge. If not, it isn't the end of the world either as BYI is solidly profitable with growing earnings.
Call it a pump analysis if you like. I call it common sense. Six months from now you will look back and apologize for disagreeing with me.
For the past year, whenever I review long-term stock charts I always ignore 2009. It was an anomaly...which we likely won't see again so I wouldn't be looking for or expecting to see very many similar types of bargains. They will occur, but very infrequently. If we see a good 20% correction from here, probably a few of them will emerge.
I just listened to the replay of the call. I don't think that there's anything to get excited about...I don't think they'll ever be much bigger than they are now - just don't see it happening - will just straddle breakeven going forward. I think this year is shot - will wait for my quick flip in December/January with the tax selling.