hag, the CAT contract is JUST BEGINNING!!!! There is no meaningful earnings in the first half of this year because they are beginning to install their equipment in the CAT equipment during the third quarter! That would explain why they will not be seeing meaningful earnings until the second half of the fiscal year! NOW DO YOU GET IT????!!!!!!
Sarge in all fairness, FBR did come out and say that Calamp would exceed first quarter expectations, which they did - they didn't say anything about forward guidance; but this morning, they came out with an "Outperform" rating on CAMP, so, in essence they are predicting a positive quarter for Quarter 2 as well; FBR was on the CC yesterday, and Burdiek mentioned that positive contract announcements would be forthcoming as they occur in the coming quarter.
By the way, my brokerage site shows that Northland Capital also reiterated its "Outperform" rating on CAMP this morning.
hag, Calamp, all along has stated that they wouldn't start seeing meaningful revenue from CAT until the second half of this fiscal year; so why are you trashing the stock because they aren't earning revenue from the first half? That's like saying I'm worthless because I'm not paying you back today, even though I promised you I'd be starting to pay you next week.
hag, it really shouldn't matter how they met expectations; that's the reason why they have become a diversified company - when one segment has a weak quarter, there is another segment there to carry the load. The company as a whole should not be trashed because one segment is weak for the quarter; for example, this quarter, South America was weak; but it was more than compensated by the stronger business in Europe. The Street obviously has an agenda here in cherry picking Calamp's earnings - concentrating on weak segments of Calamp's business and ignoring stronger segments.
I'd beg to differ, hag....please READ the CC transcript! Burdiek stated, "Based on commitments received from Caterpillar, we now expect revenue from this customer during the second half of our current fiscal year will be closer to the upper end of our earlier $5 million to $10 million estimate." Burdiek didn't say these numbers were based on the full year, pal.
Another example of expected growth that was brought up in yesterday's CC, Burdiek states: "we were awarded two sizable contracts from customers that rank among the top 50 metropolitan regions in the U.S., which we expect will contribute to SaaS subscriber growth in the coming quarters."
By the way my brokerage screen just indicated that FBR Capital is reiterating its OUTPERFORM rating on CAMP this AM; it doesn't sound like they're too worried about falling revenues this fiscal year!
Are you the same Spanspur who was trashing the WM purchase when it occurred because it would be an anchor to the company's bottom line? By the way, Spanspur, doing some simple math, you add the $80 mil to the $160 mil revenue number you mentioned that adds up to $240 mil. The latest revenue estimates for Calamp at the end of this fiscal year is $301 mil; so you're saying $60 million in additional revenue is chopped liver? I'd expect a good share of that revenue includes the CAT contract, which will be ORGANIC revenue. Stop the nonsense Spanspur!
By the way folks, if you haven't figured it out already, Spanspur is Hindu Cowboy. It just depends on whether he is short or long on a given day.
I just read the Earnings Transcript from today's CC; in the call Burdiek mentioned some news regarding Calamp's Caterpillar contract; Burdiek stated: "Based on commitments received from Caterpillar, we now expect revenue from this customer during the second half of our current fiscal year will be closer to the upper end of our earlier $5 million to $10 million estimate. We're very optimistic that this and other opportunities within the heavy equipment industry could become a significant growth driver for CalAmp over the coming years."
Believe me, Burdiek and Vitelle own hundreds of thousands of shares of the company; their concern in the price drop is a real concern; however, their vision is long term; a quarter or two of disappointment, even if it temporarily means hundreds of thousands of dollars out of their pockets, will not cause them to panic if they know that the health of the company is very good and its long term profitability is in place.
I really don't follow the conference call real time any more, as I presently only own a few hundred shares of CAMP; but a couple years ago, when I owned 6,000 shares, I would listen to the conference call,dissect the transcript, and make almost daily posts on this message board.
I will still read the transcript when it becomes available, and there's also a good possibility I will purchase a considerable amount of shares again in the near future; as far as your comment regarding Caterpillar is concerned, I wouldn't expect Burdiek to comment on CAT in his next quarter's guidance, as I believe they won't start seeing Caterpillar contributing to earnings until the third fiscal quarter; so I'd expect him to include CAT in his guidance in next quarter's CC.
I would expect a question regarding CAT to be included in the Q&A in today's CC however.
Unfortunately, tony, the street has a stranglehold on CAMP; for that reason, I make no predictions for the stock's short term price movement; however, the company is very healthy. One or two of its verticals may be experiencing some short-term weakness; however, Calamp is highly profitable, especially given its tax status, and improving its profitability each and every quarter, especially since it has eliminated its debt, and its most profitable verticals, as Burdiek has repeatedly stated, are continuing to increase their subscriber base (subscribers are the key to their business model, as they guarantee continued revenue in these segments). They have also created an ecosystem of product and software/services to their customers, which have made their new/existing customers very sticky. I often compare this ecosystem to Apple's (on a much smaller scale, of course), and we all know the success Apple has had at keeping/increasing its customer base.
Then there's Caterpillar; I haven't listened to the conference call yet; but I'm sure Mike Burdiek will continue to talk up the Caterpillar project, as it will mean significant profits beginning in the third quarter.
If there is no negative surprise in the customer base/Caterpillar fronts, I expect the Calamp price to regain any ground it loses over the next day(s). Even before the anticipated drop back to the teens, the stock's forward P/E was a modest 17.93, and its PEG an even more modest 0.74 - unbelievable for a momentum stock, considering its PEG isn't much higher than when it was when the stock was mired in the mid single digits a couple years ago and followed by relatively few retail investors.
Just my opinion, but there's no way I'd be short going into this earnings report! This stock was overbought when it sat at $34/shr; the last earnings gave the big boys a reason to bring down the stock to a level that new large investors would want to buy in; all of the five million share volume came in after that earnings report and the price drop - what idiot would sell that volume of shares at $18 - it's obvious large investors were getting into the issue at that level; and now it's time to return CAMP to expected price levels that most analysts are predicting for the stock.
Calamp is a great IOT play because it's already maintaining nice earnings - its PEG is less than 1 for heaven's sake; they are moving into the second half of their fiscal year where earnings growth is expected to ramp.
I don't own as many shares as I used to; but that is only because I've already made a boatload on this stock
At the Q&A at the end of their December conference call, Burdiek explained, "In terms of the longer term Brazil opportunity as you know and most people know there is this Contran 245 legislation which when fully implemented will dictate that all new vehicles produced or all new vehicles imported and sold in Brazil must come equipped with stolen vehicle recovery technology, which will allow the tracking of the vehicle and to save many of the vehicle if it is reported stolen.
We’ve felt for some period of time that Contran 245 would result in any direct demand for our stolen vehicle recovery solutions in that, that law or the implementation of that law would stimulate a lot of aftermarket demand for our product which may have been what drove the significant demand in Q2. However the outlook is changing a little bit in that we are involved with a couple of major suppliers to the automotive OEM companies who are looking for Telematic solution partners to help them support their customers in complying with the 245 legislation.
So whereas before we didn’t really see too much of a direct OEM opportunity we are now starting to see that as a potential pipeline opportunity as the automotive OEMs start to position their product platforms to full compliance with the 24 5 legislation."
An increase in G&A just indicates to me that they are more global in their sales and marketing, which is a good thing. Actually, it's not all that big of a jump by historical standards; it goes with the saying, you've got to spend money to make more money.
This was the most worthless piece of information put out by a company that is supposed to be "alerting" investors; first of all, this "alert" is a month too late - this stock was oversold for at least a month - why didn't Zacks start alerting investors at that point, rather than warning us now, when the stock already lost half its value?!! Plus, Zacks' alert is just looking at the technicals of the chart of the STOCK, rather than taking a look at the fundamentals of the COMPANY; being an experienced investor, I feel Zacks should be embarrassed by the technical information they are disseminating in their "alert."