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Market Vectors Mortgage REIT Income ETF Message Board

nitrene 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 21, 2016 1:05 PM Member since: May 9, 2002
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  • Reply to

    US et. al In A DEPRESSION

    by jmlregoog Jan 21, 2016 12:58 PM
    nitrene nitrene Jan 21, 2016 1:05 PM Flag

    Not yet. But it will be there in the next few years (2020 at the latest).

    Stock market crash == Recession
    Bond market crash == Depression

    Bond market value =~ 10*Stock Market

    Everyone thinks Sovereign debt is safe so they all pile in for the 'safe haven' trade. When this trade collapses the real Depression will start just like the in 1931-1932 when all the global banks collapsed starting with the Rothschild backed-bank Creditanstalt.

  • Not sure if it will get there but if there is a short term bottom put in at ~$7.90 and the last top was at $11.40 a 66% retrace would put it at ~$10.20. That means another 18% form here ($8.60 @ 1300 EST).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • nitrene nitrene Dec 7, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    Well yes there is a demand aspect to it but I doubt it is enough to account for the collapse, unless you believe demand has gone down 35%.

    The truth is that Oil was never worth $100, it was propped up by the Banks that have no clue about risk management -- which should be clear by now to anyone since the debacle of 2007. And these same clueless banks were giving free money to the Frackers & Shalers. So just like the mREITs and mortgage insurance companies that collapsed in 2007-2008 these bubble Oil companies will go down in flames.

    I owned MLPs until Q1 2014 and most of them were heavily leveraged and I knew when the USD rose they would all collapse. I used to own LINE. I sold it for a loss of about 10%, after getting dividends for about 3 years, and since I sold it it is down 90+%. Amazing. Almost all these MLPs have more debt than shareholder equity -- in other words they are already bankrupt and just surviving on worthless high yield paper courtesy of the "smart" US banks.

    The same thing is about to happen to the Metals Miners & NatGas companies.

    My prediction for the final bottom WTI price is about $15 -- which means another -60%.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • nitrene nitrene Dec 7, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    No. Why do "investors" cling to these conspiracy theories of:

    Saudis wanting to bankrupt the US Shale Players?
    US wants to bankrupt Russia?

    This reminds of the delusional buyers who think there is a perpetual conspiracy when Gold prices keep going down, but not when Gold prices go up.

    The reason Oil is crashing and will continue to crash is the skyrocketing US dollar. This isn't limited to Oil; all commodities will continue to crash. The reason the US dollar is skyrocketing is that all the global investors are moving their funds to invest in the US (real estate, stocks, art, etc.) because the global economy is on the verge of a depression. The commodity exporters are already all in a recession.

    It won't take much to get them into a depression (Australia, Canada, OPEC nations, etc.). Heck Brazil & Venezuela are already in a depression.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Back to $45?

    by hongbang123 Nov 17, 2015 11:53 AM
    nitrene nitrene Nov 17, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    This is not a buy-and-hold ETF. This is a pure momentum security. This thing is up 80% in the last 3 weeks when it bottomed around $22. Its more likely to go down short-term.

    The Junior Miners Index (GDXJ) is about 5% from the 52-week low so if it does break it then yeah JDST will hit $45-$50 but its unlikely to get there in a straight line.

    Sentiment: Sell

MORT
17.51+0.27(+1.59%)Feb 12 4:00 PMEST