The 3X XBI is finally here. LABU just came out yesterday and it is triple leverage of the S&P Biotechnology index.
I will move my BIB holdings to LABU.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
To make my point further on growth vs. value, since the inception of JETS it is up (as of 5/18/15) 3.3% and the average of ALK, JBLU, HA and LUV is up about 6.5%. Again the legacy carriers will always under perform in an up market like it has. HA did drop 33% about 4 months ago on their earnings report but since then it has recovered 90% of the losses ($18.5 -- $25.8).
Even today (5/18/15 1253 EST):
As long as the market in general rises, the growth airlines will outperform even the S&P 500 by a lot unless Oil shoots back over $65-$70 -- that is the only real risk.
Its a pretty good ETF but they should have made it earlier like 2 or 3 years ago. Its too illiquid to trade but good for investing.
The only downside is it is market-cap weighted so it is top heavy on the low growth legacy carriers. It is about 45% in AAL, UAL, LUV & DAL. Of those only LUV can be considered quasi growth. The real growth is in JBLU, AK, HA, VA & SAVE.
I personally think it is better to just own them outright. I've owned all of the top ten except ALGT for a while and I can tell you that AAL, DAL & UAL have done worse than HA, AK & JBLU.
Be careful. IBB is 28% above the 200-day SMA (as of yesterday). In December 2013 the IBB crashed after it was 35% above the 200-day SMA. However I doubt IBB can go down without a general correction in the NASDAQ.
Wow you are short SPY and long GLD & the GDX? That hasn't worked too well for you I assume. The SPY is up 62% while the GDX is down 66% since the end of 2011.
The equity markets will keep going higher until next recession and most likely the miners will keep going lower as well due to a higher US dollar.
The first rule of trading is that fundamentals don't always help you in trading. My personal belief is that "price is truth." That is the essence of trading and I consider fundamental analysis a sort of "voodoo science."
I believe only in technical analysis and macro factors that mitigate the trends.
Everything you stated is true and I agree with it. Its a matter of timing, however.
Yes eventually Gold will skyrocket but only after the PIIGS countries & Japan collapse along with collapse of the Euro which was doomed from day one.
Again this speaks to the issue of confidence in Government which is still in tact. As long as the people in Japan/EU believe the leaders confidence continues and equity markets rise which means the US dollar rises and the commodities continue going down.
The day that confidence collapses, interest rates globally will skyrocket along with Gold & Silver. Of course this will lead to civil unrest and probably wars and revolutions but that could be like 10 years away.
What is the skyrocketing Gold case? How is gold going to go up 28%?
Yes as a trade the GDX will rise but Gold is doomed in the face of liquidity flooding by the Central bankers. Historically Gold only rises when confidence in Government collapses. I'm sure if you owned Gold in rubles you would have made a lot of money but not in dollars.
With global deflation and a skyrocketing US dollar, Gold along with all commodities are in serious trouble of collapsing further.
The VIX was up all day even though the equity markets were up until the last 2 hours.
I think the gold bugs buy gold stocks when there is a panic or a potential of one and I think a skyrocketing dollar and increasing VIX seems to point to a mini panic.
If you look at the last 2 5+% drawdowns (January/February) on the S&P 500 this was the pattern.
On the other hand JDST was up 75% from the Thursday close until about 2 PM yesterday so there is probably a lot of buying on the dip of the GDXJ substituents.