Going from a loss in 2014 to a $2 profit in 2015 is another pie-in-the-sky pump job. Consensus FY2015 at yahoo finance is 41 cents. Every year, we see new year estimate at several bucks, then gradually lowered to a few pennies as we approach the fourth quarter.
1. Growth is slowing down to 15% and will continue to go lower even with numerous new and failed ventures like high-end diapers and Fire Phone.
2. R&D is trimmed to the bone compared to other tech gaints like GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL. Translation...eroding market share and growth.
3. Bigger debt pool.
4. Pricematching from competitors like WMT, TGT, and BBY.
Exact timing of stock price collapse is unknown, but all the biggest actively managed MF funds have reduced their Scamazon positions as of last quarter. I suspect they will continue to unload on rallies due to slowing growth (sub 20%) and lower earning.
But Scamazon's growth has also stalled. Growth for last 4th quarter was 16%, far below the 20% target. And guidance for this quarter is 6-16%. Best case scenario is 15% growth for FY15 even with massive spending. Competitors have massive war chests and are aggressive with pricing, so Scamazon cannot raise price or volume.
This is a dead growth story. Has been for the last three years. Management will try to pump up the growth story with full disclosure of cloud, but that business is under intense competition against Microsoft, Google, IBM, etc... Irrational exuberance cannot go on forever. Most of the big funds have reduced Scamazon as of last quarter. Now it's the big passively-managed funds that are bloated with Scamazon.