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Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG Message Board

nli200808 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 13, 2014 11:07 AM Member since: Sep 28, 2008
  • Reply to

    Bag Holders

    by rogluther Mar 7, 2014 5:25 PM
    nli200808 nli200808 Mar 13, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    My analysis suggests that copper prices will continue to be under pressure because supplies will be more than expected for several months, hence a similar outlook for SCCO.

    Recent (i.e. past few months) positive trends in SCCO are about to turn negative (as measured by moving averages), if prices stay where they are now. A change in trend may bring additional selling into SCCO as people start to believe that the situation in copper has changed and may persist for a while.

    Not a recommendation. Do your own DD.

  • Reply to

    Say google is $1200 at the time of the split

    by mardermj Mar 12, 2014 3:14 AM
    nli200808 nli200808 Mar 12, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    "If you like your voting interest now, you can keep it."

    It'll just cost you a small premium (tax) to sell a GOOG share and buy another GOOGL share.

    That premium, in the long run, may be be worth paying. Then you'll just own GOOGL and not any GOOG. Rather not own the minority class.

    Not a recommendation. Do your own DD.

  • why not a simple 2 for 1 split. why is a new class of shares being created?

  • Reply to

    Bag Holders

    by rogluther Mar 7, 2014 5:25 PM
    nli200808 nli200808 Mar 10, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    SCCO was around $25 in December when copper was significantly higher than it is now. There is a lot of risk in owning this thing with the copper market falling out of bed. Just my 2c.

    Not a recommendation. Do your own DD.

  • Reply to

    Why such a big decline today

    by ronrph Mar 7, 2014 10:30 AM
    nli200808 nli200808 Mar 7, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Copper has declined over 4% today, falling through the "support" level that was tested a few times. SCCO is following copper down. Copper is probably declining on increased production and perhaps lower than expected demand. Don't know for sure.

    Recent market action in SCCO had been short term bullish trying to overcome general copper market bearishness. When the bearish trend on copper is revisited, it's particularly hard on stocks that had been trying to form a bottom and move up, like SCCO.

    Not a recommendation. Do your own DD.

  • nli200808 nli200808 Mar 3, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Crude oil spreads have been moving into backwardation for a while now. that suggests that supplies are becoming hard to come by.
    It's true that oil and SPY are positively correlated in the short run, so as SPY sells off it's reasonable to expect oil to follow, but it doesn't always happen.
    Crude (USO) has recently moved into an uptrend vs SPY recently, and that looks fairly solid, suggesting that tightness in supplies seems to be persisting.
    My guess is that average opinion out there is bearish on oil based on the rising production from a variety of non conventional sources. However, we are in a global market and there are lots of other places where production isn't rising. On balance my guess is that people will be very surprised by how strong crude oil prices are for the next 3 to 12 months as the supply situation unfolds.
    Not a recommendation. Do your own DD.

  • Reply to

    INSANELY Cheap!!

    by equityman2002 Dec 31, 2013 11:34 AM
    nli200808 nli200808 Feb 19, 2014 12:18 AM Flag

    Always hard to predict when something that is undervalued makes its move. For me I can think of two catalysts that might get the ball rolling: 1) rising WTI--it has started what I believe will be a reasonably strong and durable uptrend and 2) my sense that COSWF has an oil supply that customers can count on which might take on increasing importance in an increasingly volatile and unstable oil world in the next couple of years. Agree that rising yields/buybacks should help improve shareholder returns quite a bit relative to the last couple of years irrespective of the foregoing.

  • nli200808 nli200808 Feb 14, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    thanks for posting

  • Reply to

    INSANELY Cheap!!

    by equityman2002 Dec 31, 2013 11:34 AM
    nli200808 nli200808 Jan 27, 2014 10:17 PM Flag

    I think their capital budgets do show a decline on major projects starting in 2014 vs 2013 ( $653M vs $842M) but they also show regular maintenance cap ex continuing at about $450 . also there is something lumped into 2014 capital spending in one of their press releases called development expenses so that actually does make the total spend be about the same in 2014 as 2013. The spending does decline on major project completions which are starting to be completed in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

    May not get a the full free cash flow effect until 2015.

    Good point.

  • Reply to

    INSANELY Cheap!!

    by equityman2002 Dec 31, 2013 11:34 AM
    nli200808 nli200808 Jan 22, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    COS.TO trades in Canadian dollars. make that adjustment and they are pretty close.

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