Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG Message Board

utilities HAVE BEEN a good place to reside.

their recent returns HAVE BEEN 5 to 6 times what would normally be expected on a risk adjusted basis.

quite likely that some holders will take profits here.

thus, can't agree that utes are a good place to reside right now.

maybe in a few months time.

action today suggests that the sell-off in utes is beginning. given the recent gains, could get a little ugly on the downside.

I am short the utilities (fulll disclosure).

Not a recommendation.

Do your own due diligence.

Good luck to all .

get your point.
my hunch is that when the trend on gdxj turns (if it turns), it will be hard to find things that out-perform. GDX has been a little better than GDXJ but not by much. ABX is the largest component o GDX and it has been a real dog. today ABX released earnings a little better than expected and it is doing well so far this AM in the pre-market. you really need a market attitude change to get GDXJ going again and that may take some time. trying to pick individual names that are going to outperform an index is a tricky business and you might find this pretty frustrating too. what ever ideas you hear about here on individual names, not sure they will be that helpful. I believe the best thing to do is to stay with the trend on one of the mining indexes until it changes. if you are trying to avoid L/T capital loss on gdxj, then you could switch to GDX. they will give very roughly the same performance.

not a rec, do your own dd.

OK, you simply continue to cite the fact (I agree) that gdxj has been underperforming. this has been the trend. go ahead and get out if you think the trend will continue. you're right, you're right, you're right . . . the trend has been negative. go ahead and get out. if the trend changes you'll have to say the opposite of what you are now saying. and then you'll be right again. what do you want someone to day. I agree the trend HAS BEEN NEGATIVE. the past may not be prologue.

not a recommendation, do your own dd.

you need not repeat yourself anymore. the trend on GDXJ has been DOWN and if you were long you were wrong. OK we get it.

you have to be a little patient for the trend to change. this morning at 8:37 gdxj up 1.7% gld up 1.04%, don't compare to an individual stock. you'll always be able to find some individual stock that outperforms the index on a given day. I think you were just early on gdxj and have suffered a lot because of it. when the trend changes, you'll feel differently about gdxj, my guess.
not a recommendation, do your own dd.

miners do not trade at a constant margin over gold. so part of timing is to have some sense of the cycle of the miners' margin relative to gold. some of that cycle has to do with valuation (which can be pretty trendy, as I mentioned before with PE moving from pretty fully valued at 20X earnings to somewhat undervalued at 8X earnings. it doesn't happen overnight, but rather takes a while to be accomplished, i.e through a somewhat durable trend. many stocks exhibit trends in valuation. its not that uncommon. I recently bought some GDXJ and also recently shorted some GLD so I know what you are talking about. but I think there is a decent chance that the trend starts to go the other way.
not recommendation, do your own due diligence

it's all about timing. enter at the wrong time, you face a headwind. enter at the right time, you have a tailwind. this was probably valued at 20X earnings 6 months ago. now it's probably valued at less than 8X earnings. going from A to B = a headwind. who knows when its over but my guess is sometime soon.

not a recommendation, do your own dd.

In the for what it is worth department:

based on the Fact Sheet for this ETF and the recent change in price of GDXJ since march 31, it should now be trading at about .71 times Book Value. If you can believe the fact sheet, PE would be 6.52 (not adjusting for the impact of the change in the gold price on GDXJ earnings.

Using this, I would say the ETF is cheap. not saying it can't get cheaper. Not saying it's a buy.

Just saying.

not a recommendation, do your own due diligence.

good luck to all

The extremely strong short term trend has been convincingly broken. Some of those with profits (and there are many of them) will lock in the those profits. meanwhile, fresh buyers may be concerned that the price is too high to initiate a position.

just my 2c.

not a recommendation.

do your own dd.