SODA goes limit up:-) and halted at near that main support area 29.25 and GMCR see's Volatility
KO reports case volume is down with lower Est. Revs, then announces a $2.5 - $3.0 BILLION DOLLAR SHARE REPURCHASE PROGRAM...I do not think this translates well for SODA but we already know this from the almost waterfall like lower share prices...and lets not forget SODA pays no DIV. or has shown any propensity of a large SHARE Repurchase power play. DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR SODA...only a Black Swan positive event would change the negative outlook.
Cramer is a great trader...if you watched his Mad Money show last night then it becomes obvious he thinks like me" 'another great trader...take notice how Cramer was able wrap his mind around potential Middle East, Europe economy woes and Ukraine/Russia issues... exactly like I did earlier in the first message of this yahoo message thread...Of course my sense of humor is much better than Cramer's....
THINK LIKE A GOOD TRADER THEN BECOME A GREAT TRADER.
I told you in the previous post in this thread how important it is to think like real good traders thinks....Now that many have already read the first post...It's time for a second part of this continued message to show how great traders think!
Real traders would NEVER be so narrow minded analyzing one negative side of a potential trade using one big Momentum stock name like CMG to gauge how a stock like SODA may trade going into an earnings report over the coming days... However a Pop in SODA share price could very well happen... I looked negatively at SODA now lets look positively for at least a trade going into earnings. Lets say CMG and many other restaurants in the industry asset group perform better than expected or just ran out of sellers to the downside then collectively many of their stock values rise in price and you see a larger rotation of market participants entering these stocks and shorts start to cover some positions....This is certainly possible in this current market! Traders with their finely tuned Radars would squawk to fellow traders on the desk correlating potential trade thought with probabilities like this...STZ already showed great profits in Booze & Beers and the family style Hotels are full so we should expect the restaurants to make good profits...well if Booze & Beer did great in the quarter then SODA Pop should have better salesr too....suddenly the light-bulb turns on in their little trader frog brains and they spread some buying liquidity volume EVERYWHERE including SODA which has been crushed and does not forewarn poor earnings.... Bingo then this little piece of dog turd SODA gets that nice relief rally dead cat bounce worth trading at multiple day support zones with a Stop just below or a dynamic type of trail stop if the trade works.
This my fellow traders is how real traders think every single day in almost every trade. Preserve Capital, Risk to Reward, Find that probable odds trade, make money and reduce Draw Downs.
Because I love people freely and many read my posts to learn how traders think ...when CMG reports earnings tomorrow those Beef & Bean Burrito's better be super clean because if Earnings / Revs. Margins or Guidance are dirty not only will CMG share price get hit but so will many restaurant stock share prices which have not been taken to the submariners Davey Jones Locker yet...SODA has already been Scuba Diving for awhile now on both Inventory stuffing last Q along with higher raw costs and inability to pass them onto Consumers...As a side note of understanding increased raw costs please refer to HSY's 8% price hike announcement on Chocolate products which went over like a lead balloon to it's share price!. SODA is in a worse position in my opinion because SODA machines, CO2 refills & Syrup/Flavors products are like low born gutter sluts when it comes to consumer name brand recognition which could easily allow the stock to Tank further if CMG reports a smelly Q. Oh yea ...lets not forget Eastern Euro Zone tensions starring dancing with the Missiles partners Ukraine & Russia or that entire Middle East Dance Of Death Squad which has helped show Germany, France, and Italian economy weakness this past Quarter noted in a few weekly Data Reports....It's worth watching CMG and other Chains abroad too. Another Positive side note: In the last few weeks in the USA consumers did pull their wallets out their pockets and spent some summer cash.
Good Trading To all.
Some partner traders called me "SODA YODA" about an hour ago. Not that SODA is a big winner by itself today compared to Momentum trades with big volume held over Saturday and Sunday from last week but more over time...It's quite a nice compliment. My guess is traders will keep trying to hit SODA like in the old days when we traded 1/4's & 1/2's in the futures pits until someone with size comes along starts the covering phase...could happen anytime from now until the day before earnings. SODA still has time before Silent Period. I am ready for anything.
Weaker Canada, France and Italy economic numbers still hurting SODA share price as investors correlation models for consumers lower financial strength to purchase discretionary items, worse still... SODA seen as novelty item with not great tasting end user product.
SODA on Gaps this large you have to cover even more of this short so that is what I did this morning right away. Remember you should not get in the way of Hard charging opening range players but use them to measure where a fade may have the odds in your favor. SODA been Berry Berry Good To Me.
No problem, we wait for pullbacks as well. But like I said earlier...A VIABLE QUICK HIT TRADE based on repeatable sequences, signals of which most people miss to make trading easier and experience. The markets really did not produce a large Gap on Monday as expected but still knocked this trade out of the Park. If somebody is prepared with planning then NO EXCUSE of trade complexity should ever get in the way of taking these types of trades...as a matter of fact this trade was easy...plus I placed this trade on SILVER PLATTER. Have a great week!
A SHORT TERM MARKET SHORT IS SETTING UP....
Current market indexes with some really fantastic stocks are going up...I mean going up BIG this this week and paying us well with about a 72% probable HUGE market upward window gap next week Monday on the 7th...did you get that...expect a HUGE Gap on Monday July 7th... then sometime on Tuesday July 8th will be a short term trade opportunity in my opinion... I am looking to get SHORT some big Momentum names through some Options trades structured in a net short for a Counter Trend Trade Only !! This market sequence scenario of getting net short comes from my many years of study in market sequencing with some seat of the pants experience speaking. DO NOT expect the markets TO SELL OFF VERY LONG as this will be a counter trend trade only yet viable...
I expect this shorting opportunity to pay us! Remember you heard it here first, Enjoy this current weeks long side trade opportunity followed by a gap up on Monday July 7th then look for the temporary but counter trend short signal sometime on Tuesday July 8th or Wednesday July 9th...again folks this counter trend short trade will NOT last long but will pay us handsomely in a very small market exposure window of time. As always, set your own risk control parameters if the trade set up...many times I will use a 2.5% Initial Stop then if the trade goes against me more than that 2.5% but if I have conviction the trade will still work I will then place another Options Tranche strategy which slows down the rate of loss then if the trade starts coming back in my favor I will drop protective Options Tranche and let the trade continue as expected...Of course it's your prerogative to honor the Initial Stop and call it done...
Good Trading to everyone and have a wonderful 4th Of July!
SODA, Their is no reason yet to cover this long time short, however there was reason to take large gains near 33.00 this morning. One of the few longer term Shorts working in this medium and longer term melt up market. Anyway thought it was time to update my net short position on SODA. I repeat large gains were taken and a volatility - range stop is in effect on the trailing short. In short term context I feel the stock is trying to place a short term bottom...but that is why we adjust both stops and position sizes. I am hoping continued downside allows the trailed short position to make more money with potential targets below but if not a prepared plan is in effect.
The release of Dr. Pete -- a horrible tasting copycat ripoff of Dr. Pepper -- in both the U.K. & Australia, SODA also released Diet Dr. Pete in these consumer expensive regions too. SODA is trying a desperate tactic of marketing by thinking North American flavors will transfer to Australian peoples tastes however this cheap advertising trick will fail for two simple reasons which SODA management has not even accounted for.
The first and most important reason this will fail after a short time is that Australian People typically have very sensitive and discerning tastes and will not be fooled by rotten aftertastes SODA introduced like their versions of Root Beer, Grape, Strawberry, Cherry Cola and Fountain Mist. released in Australia this past week.
SODA also did not even consider how expensive these systems are for average Aussies living near high cost tourist traps, This is the second reason SODA earnings may drop over time in these locations.
Will be slowing down personal operations in the next couple of years. Soon a transition team will work in simpatico taking over completely for me.
When this transition happens I will give back to any traders community by paying it forward so to speak -- by placement of a short term day trade SCANNER online -- FREE FOR USE -- on at least one video website -- with links -- so anyone can use it or make further developments from it. This will make more than several other Wire House franchises with global reach angry but any obligations to them will be long over....
who knows?" ' I may even be mean and expose some of those bucket shops for claiming my scanner as their own propriety property which they have been selling to their clients! Expect legal battles costing them more than they ever dreamed if they try to continue!
Never Fear -- Stock Trader --Is Here
By now I must seem like some kind of Trading God to most of you...obviously I am not...but I do know how most stocks will react....unlike the Pundits of Noise.
That is all for now, a busy trade day awaits for setups into and over the long weekend.
Rock Around The Clock
Tonight Were Gonna Rock Rock
Around Clocks Tonight
Another Haiku For You.
You must learn how to play the game and understand the sequence of trade Mechanics as follows:
Ask yourself these questions? Do Earnings, Div. and valuations matter this Earnings Season? Answer: YES
Was SODA set up for this current downgrade on an under performing Retail Sales economic Data reporting day? Answer: YES
Was SODA set up perfectly for this current and well planned typical current Downgrade on an equally underperformed Unemployment Claims Data economic data day? Answer: YES
You see folks, I know how to play the game...not only in SODA but many Securities...it would be wise for you to learn the sequence.
It is time to protect these huge gains...It should be your job as a trader to both protect Capital and Drawdowns...the ALPHA will come with higher probability than 50/50 odds if patient and flexible. Be willing to change positions in an instant upon seeing both bottoming / topping or continuation...as good traders we do not make predictions we make potential scenarios.
Filter The Noise And Focus On What Counts...
Analysts With Downgrades or Upgrades Do Not Work For You.
Again, Protect Gains, Know when to add in Tiers and to reduce.
The Above is your lesson for today...
Again, Protect Gains And Capital.
market ingeneral is in typical afternoon fun time. It will be over soon. if you are a new trader best to sit it out.