back o napkin but what is wtt worth? yahoo key stats shows op cash flow $5.22M, we know there is "waste" or "synergies op" so lets say $6.5M CF potential, considering ZIRP still money worth 5%?? sure, so $6.5M / 0.05 = $130M, lets add our $10M cash back in so $140M. Say my 5% is too low for desired roc? try 8% then 6.5/,08 +10 = $90 M, 19M shares? = $7 to $4.70, sure, no reason to argue at all with the idea of $4.12, I say $5 but $4.12 would be a nice opening shot. TBD, bo still makes sense, what are those lawyers doing? (somebodys brother in law?) TBD
yeah man, that exxi. the thing that looks riskiest sometimes (balance sheet) that maybe really isn't can be magical when it hits. near zero$ buys are pretty special :-)
just had the same thought re wstl dragging wtt down today. WTT is fine, really looks like the rule can be, if XYZ buys anything from Icorp, short XYZ. Icorp is arab oil money, maybe with cheaper oil they'll have to actually sell something valuable at some point? tbd
anybody else find the high dividend on a small tech growthie (we hope) a bit odd? I do have a decent chunk of this, as a bet on "streaming everything", also thought at one point they clearly had the CF to support the dividend, less confident in that now.
jim, that exxi, didnt join ya (playing it safer) but good on ya! if the calendar plays typical, the last great buy op might be March. tbd of course
db, one of my core beliefs is that the nat'l attention span is around 90 days. so much for "learning-from-history-doomed-to-repeat" wisdom. democracy, nice concept, but what happens when 51% of the electorate happen to be wrong (under the tests of reality, logic, science, etc) AND "leaders" pander rather than lead? (great at politics - BAD at leadership). ok, too much pessimism for a Friday, Thanks, I'll dig up the article. Good weekend, nm
OK, so in short this was a "look at CF, not E" situation for 2014, but for 2015 E and CF numbers will be closer? And if that translates to PE, up we go. 10K not until March 20 or so.
hopefully the buy out is finally gonna happen, $4-$5 range I'd guess. I seldom look at wstl anymore but guess they still have a cash pile, need to deploy, as do at least half a dozen other "possibles"
fwiw, I don't think a full blown credit crisis, on bad energy loans, is in the cards. I think energy loans gone south were the major culprit in the S&L crisis, that's 30 years or so, so might be about time for a repeat of that one. I like the reminder from Hollowbrook, "oil from 10 to 25 in a few weeks", just how quick the reversals can happen.
exxi, looks like a nice homerun play, I might need some. db, so long as the sector isn't housing? like I says, the Hollow Brook Wealth Mgmt Dec 2014 opinion has some interesting #s, might even be accurate in summing up various energy issues, cites the mid 80s oil jump from $10 to $25 in just a few weeks, when the Saudis reversed. These market sell offs, soon as anybody sells in 24 hours they go "now what do I do" and back to the market it goes. Long live ZIRP.
agreed on the consumer with cheaper oil, big boost. there is still something to worry about, 100s of Billions of loans made against 80-100 oil. Our big share holder partner here, Hollow Brook Investments or Hollow Brook LLC, some such, googled them up a few days ago, nice piece on their home page, links to their "Insights", the Dec. 2014 is all energy. Interesting read. These "analysts" with public statements and "analysis", has to be self serving baloney for the most part, or just plain babble.
think I could argue now that with alcoa and ge as bell-weathers, EU action, strong USA indicators, continuing zirp for now, bear market fears should get pushed to the back burner for awhile. not forever, but for now, and my standard calendar always says "watch out for march"
I think this market move will have some legs. I've had bear fears since Oct, but I think the Eu move shifts us aware from that potential bear. Next leg up of this aging bull starts today, on OK USA, Eu will improve, china who knows but 7% China can't be a disaster. Greenlight thru Feb., March is an annual concern, just a weak month typically. Just heard S&P hit for something like a $80 M fine for what must have been market manipulation in 2011-2012, I think not just rotten credit opinions generated by sticking a wet finger up in the air. Gotta love pro analysts.....
don, good decision, I'm 99% sure there is no reliable way to win at options buying (writing covered calls maybe, then you're the house, sort of). still, if I can feed my gambling addiction a little, here and there, maybe it lets me be 98% investor / 2% gambler, something like that. just fwiw, jmho etc (insert multiple disclaimers here) a smart cyclical investor really wants to ponder tdw-rig-atw-do-etc. in here, the right answer is probably just the "yahoo max years chart" because "its never different this time" even if it seems like it is. Or maybe some OSX fund, tbd. serious stuff.