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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

no_blinders 644 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 8, 2015 11:54 AM Member since: Jul 7, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Changed from �Avoid to Accumulate� 6/30

    by for_me_run Jul 5, 2006 3:15 PM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 7, 2006 7:52 AM Flag

    Did the same.

    I agree, use the same model, but don�t spill all the beans.

    Lets get a good bang out of this one. Looks like Shorts are still pushing this one.

    Squeeze coming soon.

    You enjoy the run too!

  • Reply to

    It�s still a steal unde $5.00

    by for_me_run Jun 22, 2006 12:18 PM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 7, 2006 8:05 AM Flag

    Yes, looks good here.
    Just a little �back and fill� mild churning. Someone is slowly picking this up at a steal.

    Once volume picks up again should see a pop.

    Although the �current� Balance/Income sheet doesn�t show it, but soon the L. Clan will need to make a cash distribute to avoid substantial taxes. This would certainly be in their best interest and the shareholder.

    If it trades over $10 it will settle in a $12 to $16 trading range. Since more fund managers can own it then volume should pick up where the L. Clan can do what they do best � I they still own it.

    I�ll enjoy the run too!

  • Merger Accusations and Buyouts in the accumulation stage often promote, support or even create short sell stories � which of course cannot be substantiated.
    Just an interesting thought.
    If I were Short I�d be nervous as�..

  • Reply to

    Changed from �Avoid to Accumulate� 6/30

    by for_me_run Jul 5, 2006 3:15 PM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 7, 2006 10:06 AM Flag

    Just went �Overweight�, added more this morning @ $4.15.
    What a deal!
    May see a good move later in the day or Monday.

  • Reply to

    no_blinders

    by casiohs Jul 7, 2006 10:29 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 10, 2006 9:49 AM Flag

    As an Individual investor, and based on the last 12 months public SEC filings the Larsen Family (I call them the Larsen Clan � L. Clan) USEG seems to be �financially operated� as a REIT for the Family, not the shareholders like you and me. Maybe that�s why they changed accounting firms earlier.

    They could be faced with paying additional taxes, penalties/fines next year or pay all shareholders a special dividend, which will be a substantial less than the additional taxes due.

    I think it�s a win-win situation for USEG and all their shareholders giving USEG three options beneficial to all � one of which is a buyout between $8 to $12

    I won�t elaborate any further since I�m not getting paid and I don�t have all the information to make an accurate assessment. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE!

    I own it here at these prices.

  • Reply to

    no_blinders

    by casiohs Jul 7, 2006 10:29 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 10, 2006 1:36 PM Flag

    True, and I understand, the company is OK.

    But with the potential tax liability, owners of exercised stock options MAY be exposed to (since the 2003 ESOP Tax Code revision) additional taxes and fines well over $4/share plus conversion price. They cannot sell more to pay those taxes and fines.

    If they don�t, can�t, or won�t, they have no choice. USEG will be an auctioned off and as you know the parts are worth more than the sum - henceforth the $8 to $12.

    I can invasion (if it comes to that) a competitor buys it out $12 and sells the pieces for around $24 to $32.
    Again that�s sheer speculation on my part. As mentioned earlier, I�m not privy to all the data since the stock is currently not trading near $8, but that�s why I own it and I think as a speculation some exciting time ahead for this little �Diamond In The Ruff�

  • Reply to

    no_blinders

    by casiohs Jul 7, 2006 10:29 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 10, 2006 1:49 PM Flag

    I understand one of the options the Larsen�s may have is to pay a dividend (about $3 to $6) to the �Open� outstanding shares to avoid their company�s surrender in auction. That of course will also boost retained earnings.

    How do you thing Shorts will treat that?

  • Reply to

    no_blinders

    by casiohs Jul 7, 2006 10:29 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 10, 2006 3:05 PM Flag

    I understand you frustration.

    If you familiarize yourself the 12/8/03 ESOP Tax Code, USEG�s Annual Reports for 2003, 2004, 2005, and recent SEC filings you�ll understand my point.

    It�s not a question of Management not wanting to do something it�s going to be a question of Management being forced/required to make the proper adjustments.

    That�s why I�m now long and SPECULATING on a very good return soon.

  • Reply to

    no_blinders

    by casiohs Jul 7, 2006 10:29 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 11, 2006 7:44 AM Flag

    Thanks � for proving my point!

    You�re bitter and confused because you lost some money in this little Diamond-in-the-ruff and now you got to blame it in management. (You probably blame the Government for high gas price).

    You didn�t do your DD (That�s Due Diligence and not Doo Doo) or any type of research about this company, it�s industry, the market cycle you bought into and then forced to sell out.

    If you�re not willing to change your thinking and your attitude, expect the same results. You bought when USEG was strong and high and not when it was weak and low as it is now.

    The reason I�m so strong with USEG is it owns interests in properties prospective for gold, uranium, vanadium, and molybdenum. It�s also engaged in commercial real estate activities. The future tax play could lead to a possible dividend surprise forcing short sellers to cover � that's where $8 to $12 could be the new trading range. When it happens it could happen over night. That�s just icing on the cake.

    If you did the research you�d know this �Family Company�, since 1966, survived over 40 years and in 2005 realized Net Income Applicable to Common Shares over $8.8M with 36 employees. That�s a turn from ($6.6M) from 2004. That my friend, is a sign of a well-managed company.

    This is a fantastic little company with fantastic employees. I hope it stays with the family, because I�ve made a lot of money with in the last 18 months. Soon I fear some one else will probably own this million-dollar company as it approaches the multimillion-dollar level, but in the mean time buy low and sell high.

    You even admit $3 to $7 by year-end. At $4 what�s the risk? A 25% risk for a possible 75% or more return? What a deal!

    You need to take ownership for your actions and decisions, learn from your mistakes, quit wining and move on. Believe me you�ll be happier and richer for it.

    Good Luck, and Good Buy!

  • Reply to

    HOLY SH*T !!!

    by burgundy90 Jul 11, 2006 9:46 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 11, 2006 9:54 AM Flag

    Yep, it�s good to be long, bad to be short.

  • Reply to

    it only need to take 2-3 days to get 8

    by xiaox1 Jun 30, 2006 3:09 PM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 11, 2006 10:16 AM Flag

    Wrong, it may take one day!
    You probably be right with 2-3 days.

    It�s going to be a good day, week, month and quarter.
    Longs are back in the drivers seat with a lot a nervous shorts needing to bail in the next few days.

    For us longs just a gap and fill, and enjoy the run. I�m looking at a $8 to $12 trading range soon.

  • Reply to

    deal worth

    by garyjohn617 Jul 11, 2006 10:17 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 11, 2006 12:10 PM Flag

    What are you missing?
    A good deal!

    A basic and simple explanation how stock (Equity) typically work.
    I use the Accounting Formula: Assets = Net Worth (Equity) � Liability.

    An example:
    You and 10 people bought a $500,000 business making widgets a year ago. This company was just making enough to make the payments on a $400,000 eight-year loan ($50,000 per year). Your group put up $100,000 as a down payment, each owning 1/10 of this business. There are now 10 shares; One share was worth $10,000 last year.

    The Formula would show:
    $500,000 (Assets)
    less $400,000 (Liability)
    = $100,000 Net Worth (Equity) No change, No return since you just started. Each share is worth $10,000.

    This year the demand and value of your widgets increases over 20% plus you were able to make additional profits on you over runs say $20,000 which was applied to liability ($50,000 plus $20,000).

    The Formula would now show:
    $600,000 (Assets with 20% increase)
    less $330,000 Liability
    = $270,000 Net Worth (Equity). Each share is now worth $27,000 or an increase of 170%

    That beats a CD, Money market.

    That� a very basic overview how to make money with stocks (Equity) with sound fundamentals like USEG.

    If that�s still not clear, marry someone rich or read Peter Lynch�s �Beating the Street�.

    With USEG we�re not looking at 20% increases, more like 600% over 5 years or 120% simple.
    That�s where the $8 to $12 numbers come from. Expect that now to substantially increase.
    I now can see a $24 to $48 buyout or going private by 2007.

  • It was a good day and better days ahead.

    You�re going to see a lot of �Trash talk� and analyst wanta-be�s.

    The fact remains the same. The news was good, the volume was good, no major spike with 2M or more trades and 9.6% plus day means we�re starting to build a firm base. It may take a few days or even a few weeks, but soon we could be testing last 100-day resistance of $7.28. This will confirm the classic �Cup & Handle� opening the window to a new $9.46 resistance.

    Asset Test still has a Strong Accumulate Alert, which should certainly flush the shorts. Not to mention feed stock pick newsletters starting to recommend USEG for a quick profit on any kind of a pullback. Hope you don�t waste your money on that garbage.

    Remember that some of us owned it at $3.40 or less not even a month ago. At $4.60 that�s a 35% move. Awfully hard not to pull the trigger.

    Don�t let someone talk you out of this Home Run before you round the bases.

    Just enjoy the run and do your own research.

  • Reply to

    New to board

    by g.mavrick Jun 13, 2006 4:12 PM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 12, 2006 7:51 AM Flag

    Hey �for_me_run� THANKS � you called it on the money on 6/14 � I added more @$3.40
    What�s your opinion with yesterday�s news?
    Do you see USEG setting a new $8 to $12 resistances?
    How about your 6/16 posting, any more thoughts?

  • Reply to

    Short squeeze potential?

    by pghpa412 Jul 12, 2006 10:32 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 12, 2006 12:31 PM Flag

    Usually, it happens late Fridays or three to five day�s AFTER you think it should happen.
    The smart short sellers re probably out. I covered 6/13 and went long. I added more long on 6/14.

    If you pay for a Short List, that data is over 15 trading days old. What you see on Yahoo (Shorts as of 12-June06) at is over 45 trading days old � don�t bank on that data.

    There was some more covering yesterday too.

  • Reply to

    Hey �for_me_run� THANKS

    by for_me_run Jul 12, 2006 9:52 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 12, 2006 3:42 PM Flag

    Are you checking your E-mails?

    Sorry! I know this is the wrong message board to post this on, but I owe you one. So I�ll give you two.
    Look at GSX and SWKS. Just added more to GSX and opened new SWKS position today. Fibonacci confirmed �Accumulate� on GSX and changed from �Avoid to Accumulate� this PM on SWKS. Financials look good on both.
    Shorts are pushing it, based on recent activity, so something�s going on.

    USEG looks good here �Gap and fill� is a good thing.
    Try to E-mail what you think.

  • My summer essay is simple:
    1. This morning �Oil Prices Hit a New High of $75.89�
    2. On July 14, the Russians will make their most aggressive nuclear play in decades when world leaders assemble in St. Petersburg, Russia for the G8 Summit. Including further development, acquisition, and production of crude oil and natural gas. Isn�t that GSX for the US?
    3. More global exposure and demand for US energy companies - see http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=21508
    4. Fundamentally STRONG Financial Statements
    5. Reuters (at Outperform) seems to be the only firm knowing the world picture.
    6. 7/11 Operations Update. Was that really such a bad report? I don�t think so! I wish more companies were that forthright.
    7. Ms. Heralds recent promotion.
    8. Hedge funds recently dumping commodity stock MUST get back in.
    9. Forcing Shorts to cover.
    10. Could there be a potential buyer out there causing technical �Accumulation Alerts� to spring up all over the place?�

    And that, is how I�ll made a killing with GSX @ $3.94 by the end of the summer!

    Have a GOOD DAY and prosperous SUMMER!

  • Reply to

    10 reasons I�ll make a killing in GSX!

    by no_blinders Jul 13, 2006 9:03 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 13, 2006 9:32 AM Flag

    Oh one other thing � brokerage firms that will be underwriting these new Global Energy Funds typically �Downgrade� that sector so they can buy in low at offering � if it hasn�t already happened.

  • Reply to

    Which horse to bet on?

    by dude_ily Jul 13, 2006 10:27 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 13, 2006 11:11 AM Flag

    Too bad you feel that way.

    Personally I made small fortune with USEG and paid off my house bought a condo with cash on Longboat Key in FL and traveled the globe� all in the last 18-months trading USEG. I certainly couldn�t do that with PG, INTC, or MSFT � Wall Streets favorites. By the time Wall Street likes it you�ll own it at $16 to $20 and I�ll be out if it looking for another �Diamond-in-the-ruff�

    I think this management team is excellent. Believe me I�ve studied a lot of companies.
    Read my 07/13/06 08:03 am Msg: 21502 and you�ll see why I�m long and so excited about USEG at this time.

  • Reply to

    PPS action beyond comprehension........

    by pghpa412 Jul 13, 2006 10:32 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jul 13, 2006 11:17 AM Flag

    Just one newsletter.
    Next week 4 newsletters.

    Hang in there. Read my 07/13/06 08:03 am Msg: 21502 and you�ll see why I�m long and so excited about USEG at this time.

ACI
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