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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

no_blinders 14 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2016 9:46 AM Member since: Jul 7, 2006
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  • no_blinders by no_blinders Mar 4, 2016 7:51 AM Flag

    As stressed bond holders have seen recent interest in new buyers and equity performance increased over 43% (some of my recent purchases have nearly doubled) and oil market predictors see Brent settle in the mid $50 by mid spring, the worst is behind us. After SDOC’s blackout period ends mid-March (per SD’s website) we should see more clearly how long this distressed company remains on the Pink Sheets.
    The energy sector should soon be promoted to “Outperform” just coming from “Sell” to “Hold: since mid Feb.

    Most “actual” shareholders are already aware about Reuters evaluation and the 30-day blackout period recently announced. Those not aware really should be ignored … they have done no research, have no clue and therefore nothing to offer.

    It is my understanding there is a sizable naked short position which must soon unwind. It appears margin calls have already started in this sector and I’m sure with SDOC too.

    Long; now overweight in SDOC and SPN.

    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Give current $40 Brent pricing this sector will soon see buy backs. This should have given management ample time to line up new funding strategies and provide a more positive report next week.
    Until the self-imposed blackout period is over, on about the 15th or 16th we should “hear” from management about past results, current standing and their future projections. I expect interest payments to be funded with possibly a stock buyback announcement too.

    Four more private funds have bought back in their aggressive portfolio portion after forced to liquidate due to delisting. To me that does not suggest any sign of BK.

    Current volume and price appreciation we may soon see SDOC trading on the big board and of course that would mean well over $1.00.

    Holding a core and trading about 33%. I will go overweight again today or tomorrow.

    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • “Earnings will tentatively be announced Wednesday. The consensus earnings are -$0.12, with a high and low of -$0.07 and -$0.16, respectively. The mean has not changed significantly as the end of the quarter nears.

    Expected Timing: After close”

    I am holding a core position and trading 1/3
    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As an investor I applaud how Management handled this rough patch for its bond holders and shareholders alike. Those who stayed the course added more or went long in the most recent down turn we will soon see our just rewards.

    The additional news releases’ supports a substantial better capital portfolio held by SandRidge Energy then I had expected; venturing to say a few BUY recommendations soon to follow.
    Being long and trading into the last few days trading cycles I plan to add more into my “Overweigh” position as I anticipate spectacular upticks in the days and weeks to come.
    For me, and a few others, we recognized the tremendous opportunity in the recent oil dip crisis

    IMHO this board unfortunately has too many posters having no clue about debt vs equity and how to take advantage. For those shareholders that understood the Income Statement and Balance Sheet also saw the tremendous opportunity here.
    Recent shorts have pretty will covered so I expect straight buyers coming in on a steady stream as “OK to accumulate”, “Outperform” and “Buy” recommendations are posted.

    IMHO see 3 stages ahead for those long.
    1. Obviously a very nice uptick, and soon be back on the Big Board.
    2. A possible buy back announcement sooner than later (those playing oil futures the last month realized huge profits as mentioned earlier)
    3. A possible takeover attempts or going private.

    Obviously all the scenarios playing out very favorably for current shareholders.
    It is good to be long and strong and happy investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reuters Upgrades SPN to OUTPERFORM 12/19/15

    by no_blinders Dec 19, 2015 7:54 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Mar 18, 2016 7:47 AM Flag

    FTR with recent developments in the Energy sector and huge Call future profits I have increased my position ins SPN and trading calls. There is no interest in Puts and the spreads are way too weak.
    I am long and plan to accumulate more.
    Happy Investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • no_blinders by no_blinders Mar 29, 2016 6:03 PM Flag

    The consensus of earnings were -$0.12, with a high and low of -$0.07 and -$0.16, respectively.
    Coming in at -$0.09 should give us a good boost tomorrow and continue as the 22 new wells scheduled this year.

    Happy Investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Report better than expected

    by no_blinders Mar 29, 2016 6:03 PM
    no_blinders no_blinders Mar 30, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    I agree. With this mornings’ News Brief about “engaged advisors to assist with evaluation of strategic alternatives” is a positive response by management for those of us holding and trading shares.
    IMHO the 3 "alternatives which may include" but obviously not limited to:
    1. Seeking restructuring,
    2. Amendment or refinancing of debt,
    3. Reorganization under chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code.

    Item 1 and 2 will certainly be resolved before 3 is seriously considered.
    It is good to hear management’s response to these lingering questions, considering all options and not just sugarcoating the dada; after all they have more to lose than those of us holding shares.
    I do plan on adding more on near-term dips as the media begins its worst case scenario spins.
    Happy Investing!
    Holding my core and planning to add more soon!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Although a good move by management, my holding here were for Dividends and covered calls.
    Calls have just dried up; plan to park my funds else were until a correction and the dust has settled.
    Happy Investing!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • no_blinders by no_blinders Apr 4, 2016 9:44 AM Flag

    Liquidated my holdings last week in SDOC after my profit/stop was triggered at $0.095 having been long $0.041. I don’t see BK in the near future, but in-light of a lack of domestic and international oil policies IMHO there may be more continuing downward pressure. Oil needs to be over $43 for SD to get traction again. I’m raising cash. SD has weakening technicals with accelerated weakness in fundamentals. Don’t see BK near-term as some bloggers seem to spin, but also don’t see much appreciation at these levels until later this year - if any at all.

    Currently don’t see acceptable technical, profitability or valuation for me to get back in at these prices; I may at lower prices, but now I’m out.

    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • With yesterdays turn-around earnings surprise waited on early morning profit taking to start a new position; in under $5.30 and plan to add more every 3% correction.
    See this sector take off again as portfolios started sector rotation.

    Happy Investing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • no_blinders no_blinders May 4, 2016 2:12 PM Flag

    Good call, I’m in too, although I started day trading a few weeks ago. Last trade was at a small loss.
    Now that new trades are under “RCB” and “HTB” restrictions it’s just a matter of time where shorts will cover either by the end of the day or first thing in the morning as margin calls finish unwinding too.

    We’ll see. Been adding more at the $4.28 level with partial fills. May need to change that later

    Happy investing to you too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I like the timing of this sector and Samson's portfolio, realizing it's a speculation, but I like buying assets pennies on the dollar with the understanding SSN's valuation will soon be recognized.
    Happy Investing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • China has developed a strong appetite for US commodities instead of US Bonds. Companies in the People's Republic are bargain hunting as global miners (especially iron ore) are attempting to improve their balance sheets. Deals could include companies like CLF.

    Been long and just doubled down yesterday too when it hit the magic $3.00.
    Long and Strong
    Happy investing

    Sentiment: Buy

  • … in the miner's North and South American operations per Bloomberg’s article this morning.

    Bought back in on this morning’s dip, could be a great weekend since there are now two parties interested creating a potential bidding war.

    Happy investing

    Sentiment: Strong Buy