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Pizza Inn Holdings, AŞ Message Board

noahtheboatbuilder 60 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 25, 2015 4:05 PM Member since: Aug 30, 2005
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  • Reply to

    I call the bottom.

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 25, 2015 3:48 PM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 25, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    really? show one other time I've posted a trade I made?

  • Reply to

    WTH is the deal with this thing?

    by kntryhick Jun 23, 2015 10:20 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 23, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    why tell the board your problems. If you want to sell, sell............

    You need to decide if you are a trader or an investor. If you;re a trader, be prepared for day to day negative stock action. If you are an investor, where do you think the stock will be 1-yr, 3-yr, 5-yrs from now, and invest accordingly.

  • Reply to

    LNG Trucks

    by ossremote Jun 22, 2015 1:30 PM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 22, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    Raven is operating more than 100 LNG trucks in the southeast. They are fueling in Jacksonville, Valdosta, Ocala, Quincy, Albany, Jackson MS, Birmingham, and maybe other stations.

  • Reply to

    LNG Trucks

    by ossremote Jun 22, 2015 1:30 PM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 22, 2015 8:27 PM Flag

    depends on the cargo.......... UPS does not carry a high density, heavy weight cargo. Trucks hauling sand, water, coca-cola, etc have the issues. A truck filled with mattresses has no problems.

  • Reply to

    I'm all out, AGAIN

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 10:24 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    great......I'm glad I could help you........... if you follow my trades, I always post when I buy and when I sell. I always take the profits when I feel something is irrational. A 20% jump in price today was irrational in my opinion. I am sitting here with $125,000+, and will reinvest over time. Last time I was out completely for about three weeks, and then I got my chance to buy back in blocks from $13.40 down to $10.95. I see the same this time. I will start to buy back around $12.85 and buy as it drops. IF it doesn't drop in the next week or two, I may adjust my buying price higher. I see no need to rush since I think this quarter will be week due to one-time charges, pre-opening expenses, and revenue issues due to rains and flooding in Houston and Dallas.

  • Reply to

    I'm all out, AGAIN

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 10:24 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    I'll gladly take the gain, and pay the tax. The alternative is not to profit and pay no tax. Living in Florida, I owe no state tax, and it is all short term gain, so I'm looking at a tax bracket of 33%, maybe 28% if I have a bad second half of 2015.

  • Reply to

    I'm all out, AGAIN

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 10:24 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    I've done a lot of projections for revenues expenses, and profits, and have a hard time getting to a place where RAVE can earn more than $.80/share in the next 18 months. For a P/E of 20, that reflects a price of $16. I too believe in the long term, but do not feel that the stock will get away from me, unless a buyout comes.

  • Reply to

    I'm all out, AGAIN

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 10:24 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    I've traded in and out multiple times this year. I believe in the long term of the company, but feel we are still a quarter or two away from seeing the results. One time charges, and pre-opening expenses for the rest of 2015 have me concerned, and that is why I decided to take more profits. I have no doubt that it will trade back below $12.50 in the next 90 days, and have no doubt it will hit $20+ in early 2016.

  • Reply to

    I'm all out, AGAIN

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 10:24 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    With the stock now at $13.80, I look foolish, but I still do not see how an analyst report can support a 25% in stock price. Still a $13,000 gain makes me happy. I will start to accumulate again below $13/share. Patience is needed.

  • noahtheboatbuilder by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 18, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    I'm all out, AGAIN.........sold all shares from $12.45 to $13.05, with an average of $12.77. A gain of more than $13,000. I still believe in the company, and will buy back when the opportunity arises, but the pop today was too good to pass up. Good Luck to all.

  • noahtheboatbuilder by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 15, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    CLNE has opened two additional stations in Quincy, FL (west of Tallahassee) and in Knoxville, TN. With these two stations, when combined with the BLU stations in Atlanta, you can now run trucks from Ocala, FL through Ohio on LNG. You can also run on Interstate 10 from Los Angeles to Jacksonville, FL. Coast to Coast.

    Two additional stations would open the Interstate 95 corridor on the eastern seaboard. There is a need for a station around Daytona in Florida, and north of Savannah near the Ga/SC border. Those two stations, when combined with Jacksonville, Charlotte, Latta SC, and Pennsylvania would open up many more truck routes.

    I love it when a plan comes together. Clean has around 48 LNG stations currently open, with plans for another 15-18 by the end of the year.

  • Reply to

    $6.99 for a P5 pizza...

    by den56kk Jun 11, 2015 3:31 PM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 11, 2015 10:01 PM Flag

    I don't visit Mcds. Its not that I have anything against McDonalds, I have just matured away from their menu choices. However, they do still have the best fries.

  • Reply to

    $6.99 for a P5 pizza...

    by den56kk Jun 11, 2015 3:31 PM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 11, 2015 9:15 PM Flag

    $6.99 is a fair price. If you feel it is too high, you need to think about the market you normally buy in. You can get a pizza and a drink, plus tax for under $10. That is cheaper than Panera, Chipotle, Zoes, Panda Express, and Blaze Pizza, and on par for a meal at Chic-fil-A, Wendy's etc....... I think the price is perfect.

  • Reply to

    store counts

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 9, 2015 12:42 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 10, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    I have no problem if people want to wait. But by the time we see some of these good things, the stock COULD be higher. With risk comes reward. I will continue to be bullish, but that doesn't mean I won't sell some shares if it starts looking like it's moved too far too fast.

  • Reply to

    store counts

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 9, 2015 12:42 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 10, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    I agree to a degree..... The magic number is the approx 100 stores open. With that number of stores two things can happen: 1. the installed base makes it possible to open stores with less expense due to easier ability to hire, train, and staff from existing restaurants. Also, marketing for a new store will also benefit existing stores in the same market/region. You also duplicate the process over and over, so stores open quicker, with less delays and issues.
    2. If it costs, $100,000 in pre-opening expenses, these expenses are spread over a larger store base, and has less inpact going forward. Part of the pre-opening expenses are recovered by higher sales during the grand opening period.

    Bottom line, once you grow to sufficient size, you can open stores without losing money.

  • Reply to

    store counts

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 9, 2015 12:42 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 10, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    I have started buying back the positions I sold. I always buy in 1000 share lots. I bought at $12.60 $12.28, $11.95, $11.45, $11.18, $11. $10.99, $10.88, $10.96, and $11.04. I own 10,000 shares at $11.43 average. I probably started buying too soon, but you can't be perfect on all buys.

    I do feel the analysts are wrong with 2016 projected earnings (loss). I think they under estimate the potential of cash flow from the corporate stores. I will stand by earnings of $.58/share for 2016. With 10 million shares outstanding, thats a profit of $5.8 million. Get a $1 million from Pizza Inn, that leaves $4.8 million for 100 Pie Five stores to generate in earnings. Each corporate store should be able to generate profits of $75,000. I called for 50 corporate stores, which generates profits of $3.75 million. That leaves $ 1 million in earnings from 50 franchised locations, or $20,000 each. $800k in average revenues and a 6% franchise fee, generates $48,000 just in franchise fees, not counting profit from food/supplies, and initial franchise fees. With tax loss carry-forwards, there should be minimum tax liability. To recap, I feel analysts are wrong, with a loss for 2016.

    Of course, a buyout, or merger, or business combination with a competitor could rule all this mute.

  • Reply to

    store counts

    by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 9, 2015 12:42 AM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 9, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    you need to project out revenues based on stores in operation, and project profit margin and operating income. I feel confident that stores are going to continue to open in 2015 at 5-7 stores per month,evenly split between corporate owned and franchised. I see earnings per share of $.10-.12 per quarter by Q1-2016, and 2016 earnings of $.58

  • noahtheboatbuilder by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 9, 2015 12:42 AM Flag

    some chains are guarding their store counts like it's a huge secret. I finally got an email back from one chain, after 4 requests in the past week.

    Blaze- 67, Pieology-62, MODPizza-54, PieFive-50, UncleMaddios-40, PizzaRev-28, YourPie-21 or 22, ProjectPie-9 (and 11 licensees international), 800 Degrees- 10 and no one else with more than 6

    These nine chains have a total of 341 U.S. Locations. Its been estimated that Chipotle can build 3500 U.S. locations, and I see no reason that a fast casual Pizza concept cannot be just as large, so less than 10% of U.S. store capacity has been built. Plenty of room for leaders to continue to grow, and it does not appear that any one chain has a dominate position.

    I do see a merger between two or three of the Top chains by end of 2016, and I think the top contenders would be Pie Five and Uncle Maddios. Maddios is strong in the south, and P5 in the midwest, Texas, and Chicago/Minn areas. Throw in MODPizza for coverage in the Pacific NW and West, and you would have the premiere National chain with 144 locations and a national presence. and P5 would be the logical parent company, since it is the only one publically traded. It could be a multi-billion dollar brand overnight.

    I see P5 having 200 locations by end of 2016, and a stock price of $40+

  • noahtheboatbuilder by noahtheboatbuilder Jun 6, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    Impressive line up of openings for the next 60-90 days..... this past week saw #50 open in Maryland. On June 12th, we get #51 and #52. Three additional openings planned for June. In addition, we see the next address in Florida. That will be #4 for the Florida Franchisee. Its a slow melt up in store counts and reach of the P5 brand

  • Reply to

    CLNE Board Vote

    by theyogue2 May 29, 2015 5:05 PM
    noahtheboatbuilder noahtheboatbuilder Jun 2, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    those that bought in the high teens made a bad investment, and management also held millions of shares in the high teens, so they have lost also. I realized that this was a long term investment, and would take years to become profitable. I've been buying and selling since 2013, and have done very well. But my long term view is that it will take off in 2016, when enough trucks are on the road, and buying nat gas. Any upside from NG Advantage is a bonus. That may be the hidden asset. If NG Advantage does go nationwide, it could be a huge income generator, and add huge volume with minimum expense by utilizing existing compression sites. Imagine adding 20,000 gges per week from a site that is already profitable. and doing it from 100 locations. That would be a game changer.

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