Hav- I studied this question in Finance Class as it is a classic case related to the issuance of a $540 mil note that included a conversion price initially set at 19.51 shares per $1000 of note or about 20 million shares. Coincidently the underwriting was led by JPM. Finance 101- short against the box. So approximately 1/3 of the "short shares" are actually derivative driven.
There was a provision for a reset on the conversion rate given certain events. Again JPM is the broker contacted by Dendreon. Many of the additional shorted shares are hedged against this potential conversion.
Now the good news, No-one can be assured that the note holder will not agree to an equity stake upon conversion for less than stated value. For one thing, the shares shorted against the box have already reduced the ultimate liability to the note holder. The transaction that is probably being touted and considered is for about a 40 mil share dilution which the note holder will most likely agree upon as it will reduce the short interest burden to just Share price players. Check out the conclusion to Microstrategy and you will see that this road has been travelled before.
They are very accurate because they are like the imdb of commercials. With over 4700 spots, if you just got one customer per evy 4 views in a 8 month period, that would not be a particularly high rate of return for a spot that billed out at better than $1K per spot. So your ad budget is set at about 5% of gross revenues. High compared to other national campaigns.
However, the bar is set low with the present revenue forecasts, there probably is a good chance that the DTC picks up new clients on a national ad campaign out of the pool of newly diagnosed patients
Well, the Provenge DTC has run 4694 commercials nationally according to ispot. The second quarter cc mentioned that the DTC gained traction, esp with the urology segment. Now what about metrics?
If 3rd quarter reports 880 patients for 83 Mil, WS will cheer. But because you now have to factor in the metrics of a national DTC with 4700 TV spots, the real number maybe more like a spike of 30% spike in this segment which will get us to about 921 patients. DTM: 3rd quarter revs=$85.6mil