Hi Deblanks: Clarksons numbers are averages, not NAT's Though I presume that the actual NAT numbers will track similar to the average, I am surprised to hear that the NAT numbers are that much lower than the averages. But since I do not have the actual NAT numbers for the second quarter, it seems reasonable to assume that if the average is slightly lower, then NATs' results will also be slightly lower than the prior quarter.
Looked at the most recent Clarkson SUEZMAX rates. The actual average rates during 1st Quarter were $50,000 and resulted in a NAT dividend of $0.38. The just published average rates for 2nd Quarter averaged about $48,000 per day. With the two additional ships in full service, (+9% capacity) and a drop of 2% in average rates, my revised estimate is down a lot, to a number closer to $0.40 +/- $0.05. Still very respectable, but not the blowout I had initially thought. Closer to what thebpanya_v and a lot of other posters were thinking.
As a retired Navy Engineering Duty Captain, I can tell you that well-maintained ships last well beyond 20 years, and it appears that NAT has some of the best maintenance in the business. The biggest point might be that these ships get depreciated on the balance sheet, and provide a nice boost to cash flow on the income statement since depreciation is a non-cash expense. When they are 20 years old, they may no longer provide that boost in non-taxable income, and be sold off. However, if their operating cost remains low, and their condition remains good, they can stay in servie for a long time.
To anyone that bought at the open and is now up 2.9%:you are welcome. Today the bottom of the trading channel is 14.18 and the top is 14.88. I NEVER day trade.
NAT is continuing to trade in an upward sloping channel. Don't misunderstand me - this stock is a buy and keep - unless you need money to live on. If you need cash, buying and selling works. Last bought at 14.02 and sold at 14.47. Would buy now at this price below 14, and would keep it to about 15. .
Whrn a stock is in an index the managers of the index buy and sell that stock as people buy and sell the index. Being added to an index increases volume and often price. When a stock is removed, as BBEP recently was, you can expect the price to drop..
While it may seem counter intuitive, it appears that the best investment that the management of BBEP can make at present is BUY BACK YOUR UNITS. With a share price of 33% of the (Un-revalued) book, each dollar spent will return 300%. REDUCING the investment in oil fields and putting that into the units will give each remaining unitholders the best value. This must be done, however, in accordance with the existing covenants and general operational needs.
Looked at prior dividends since 1997 as well as most recent dividends to develop an estimate of the 2nd quarter's dividends. As you may know, the first quarter dividend was $0.38 and resulted from an average Suezmax day rate of $37,000 and a breakeven cost of $12,000. If we use the present average of about $57,000 and a breakeven of $13,000 we calculate a potential dividend of about $0.70/ share. THis is, of course, little more than a guess, but is supported by some data. I would actually suggest that the range in dividends would be $0.60 to $0.75.
Well- I expect NAO will be fine in a year or two. I do not day trade. Do you?
Liuj89: Silly person. New refinery on line, near to suppliers. Major capital investment programs completed? Modern equipment coming on line? The managers know what they are doing and this company will be very profitable.
While there has been a very troubling drift downward in the units of CLMT, I view this an an opportunity, for the following reasons:
1. While the current projects have been coming in at over previous budgets, they currently appear to be on schedule, and on the new projected costs.
2. The huge (for Calumet) investment in these projects have been a drag on the company for two years, but even with that drag, the unit distribution has been about 10%. That is a nice return.
3. As a small company in a huge industry, it is easy for this offering to be ignored, and being ignored is great for buyers that like bargains. (Like me)
4. With the completion of these projects, we will see sequential increases in EBIDA quarter on quarter. THAT is great for stock prices..
5. The present pull-back in oil prices may also provide the opportunity for the company to purchase assets as good prices..
I am long CLMT and am continuing to purchase more on weakness. We have potential low points at about $24.00 and $20.00, if the market collapses during the upcoming Bond Crisis. Should prices continue to drop,I plan to purchase more. (Assuming that there is no new really negative news.)
+Dear SFVIP2319: Don't be a pessimist. World Oil Usage is increasing at the rate of 0.9 Million barrels/day each year. This increase is taking place because: 1. 10 million more chinese cars per year 2. Plastics. plastics, everywhere. 3. Richer people use more energy, of all kinds.
As a result the marginal price of oil WILL continue increasing. It will be back to $100/ barrel - but perhaps not for a year or two. Keel the faith, baby! Long on BBEP,NTI, SDLP,
Sentiment: Strong Buy
NO. Huge supplies of Natural gas. High costs for transportation of LNG. FRACKING especially good for Nat Gas. Lots of Shale fields around the world. I do not feel comfortable with this combination of factors.
I do not think Cooperman is a DayTrader. In a year, this company could be selling at $20 or not. Do your cash flow projections. What is the industry like? How much deferred maintenance is going on due to low Oil? Who will get the work when the rigs come back on line. NAO is a Dog, being wagged by a tail called OIL.
Let me amplify my comment below with a quote:
"Under the deal, which in November last year was delayed till end-May this year, North Atlantic Drilling would buy around 150 land rigs from Rosneft and the Russian oil giant would take a roughly 30 percent stake in the company. Seadrill, the world's biggest rig operator by market capitalisation, would remain the majority shareholder."
This deal with Rosneft is the equivalent of a "Sale and Lease-back". The Russian company is "selling" these rigs to SDRL, but they are "Buying" a percentage of the buying company. These rigs will almost certainly be used in Russia, on Rosneft's properties. The net result of this deal, if it had been completed on time, would be that, in return for "selling" Rosneft a portion of the company SDRL would have received income from the rigs "Leased Back" to Rosneft. This would have been a POSITIVE event for the SDRL cash flow. Since it is being delayed, the effect is NEGATIVE. I oversimplified my prior comment in an attempt to keep it simple. Sorry if it created confusion.
hanks for the correction, but I will need to research that before saying your interpretation that it is positive is correct. In this environment, renegotiating a future contract to supply drilling services is probably NOT a positive change to future csh flow.
April 20: Current Suezmax rates increased to $38,500, on an improving trend. Three NAT tankers went on charter since Apr 15. Generally improving financial conditions for NAT. Increases Oil prices should also increase rates for partially-owned NAO
1. BBEP is cheap, measuring it's assets at oil priced at $80 or more.
2. It is dangerous in that we do ot have a good handle onit's cash flow
3. It is probably OK, or they would not have been able to issue lower-dividend preferred
Am long 12,000 shares.