Fasebyao: Just for your information: As part of the Stock exchange's effort to increase trades, they AUTOMATICALLY reduce the value of a stock by the dividend amount the day that it goes X-dividend. Their "explanation" is that the stock is automatically worth less, so they drop the price. However that explanation does not stand the BS test. If that were really true, they would also automatically decrease the value of the shares every time a stock option vests. But they do not. As a result, the shares will open down on the x-dividend date by $0.25 - the dividend amount.
It looks to me as though these new ships will add between 10 and 17 million to the bottom line, after adjustment for operating and financing costs. If the return is 17 million, this would be additive to the per share dividend even if financed by 100% stock issue (not likely at all). With the way the shipping business is changing, especially the potential due to the expanded Panama Canal, I expect that revenues related to crude will significantly increase, and with it ship rates.
Here we are, at historic high stock prices and historic LOW DEBT Pricing ( low interest rates). But BHI management think it is a good time to BUY stock and Buy Debt. No, no folks, this is a time to SELL stock and SELL Debt. Didn't anyone teach you to Buy LOW and SELL high?
We do nor really know the numbers, yet, but a rough estimate might help.
1. Assume these ships have an operational cost of $14,000 per day or $20 million/yr
2. Assume a financing cost of 10 percent (Debt or stock issue) - should be less. or $10 million per year
3. At the current rate of $30,000 per day, how many ship-days to break-even? 1,000 ship days.
4. How many available ship days, assume 90% availability:1,300
5. Potential additional profit: of$10,000,000 at present prices..
These numbers probably represent the upper limit of costs. If we use $12,500/day operational cost and a 6% financing cost and a 95% availability, we end up with an additional profit of $17.5 million.
These numbers suggest a ROI of between 10 and 17%, which would be a pretty good deal. I suggest that everyone keep in mind that the enhanced Panama Canal will (likely) be opening later this year. When it open, there could be likely massive re-routing of tanker traffic. I have not tried to estimate the probable re-routing, but I am sure the tanker companies have. This purchase by NAT suggests that they expect a large increase in taker trade.
With about 20% of the stock sold short, and the equivalent of 15 days trading, there is upward pressure on the short sellers. If they are still short on May 10, they are liable for $0.43 of dividend on each share they own, or the equivalent of about $7,000,000. Based on past trends, another $0.20 in gains before the X dividend date is very likely., from the current $15.26
Any purchase of a different class of ships should be viewed negatively. If you have a fleet on one-size ships, you can manage your rates and scheduling simply and cheaply. Once you change your mix, asuring you have the right size vessel atthe right place becomes more difficult and expensive. Arranging drydockings becomes more complex, as does negotiating the repairs. If NAT diversifies it's fleet, I will stay away until we know how the costs work themselves out. The current base cost per day of about $12,000 makes tracking profitability easy. That goes away if you have a mixed fleet..
Just for your info: I copied the dividend history chart on the NAT website on April 18, On the spreadsheet, plain as day, the first quarter dividend of $0.43 was listed, BEFORE today's announcement. I have proof, since I sent it to my bro.
The SuezMax spot prices are currently tracking between the rates for 2014 and 2015, but closely track 2015, Based of the current $043 for Q1, which compares to $0.22 last year,a dividend in the range of $0.40 to $0.76 is likely, if the rate trend continues. If we want to pick a number, and assuming the newest ships are all operating, I would be willing to bet on $0,61
Because the income and expenses for a hedged oil company are pretty clear, the decision to terminate interest and dividends one month after making a dividend payment certifies action behind the scenes. The most likely action is that someone has purchased a large percentage of the bonds and is offering a bond to stock or bond to preferred stock or bond to stock and warrant conversion. Such a conversion is likely to be adverse to current common stock holders, though the preferred stock holders might still do well. However until the actual agreement is made public, any investment in BBEP common and preferred. would be extremely dangerous. There might be some opportunity in the bonds however..
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Several weeks ago ROYT and BBEP parted ways, as BBEP needed to concentrate resources..They recently had an officer leave Their announcement to both suspend the dividend and payments on notes is a clear indication of pending default and likely re-organization. . I am very disappointed at the CEO and board for allowing this to happen. In their business, it is simple to project certain, probable and possible cash flows. The first principle is that you ensure your certain expenses are less than or below your certain revenues or you risk default, which is where they are now. I sold all my holdings on reading the news, and I await the fall of the other shoe.
drstone6 : You are right in that Oil will be higher as we go forward this year. My estimation is that there is a 0.25 probability that oil will be $70 at year's end, and 0,5 that it will be $60 by that date and .75 that it will be over $55 by the end of July. If there are no geopolitical disruptions. I hold BBEPP and SDLP in oils.
Betting on the elections at this early date is not a good idea:
1. Hillary Clinton could implode as a result of baggage, emails, and her general lack of appeal to younger voters.
2. Bernie Sanders is getting a lot of popular support and could actually win New York AND California. In that case the Democratic Super Delegates would find themselves voting against the popular majority.
3. Sanders, Cruz and Trump represent the disenfranchised (Youth, Evangelists, and Less Educated, respectively). Those three groups represent a LOT of people. Any one of those three could carry the day if they combined their appeal. I do not think any of the candidates (all four) would be good for the country. Sorry.
in case you are wondering why the Russians have declared Victory and ar leaving Syria, I have a possible reason. The Russuans and Saudi's have been talking. In return for the Russians reducing support for Hassad, the Saudi's have agreed to cooperate with Russia on reducing oil production. The Russians were killing the Saudi allies in Syria. The Saudi's were killing the Russian budget by keeping the price of oil low. For them this is a win-win-win situation. Russia reduces expenses for their military, get increased revenues from oil and as an added benefit, gain influence in the critical Middl East. THe Saudi's can reduce their military expensed, reduce the potential social impact caused by the fighting, and gain an ally in their pursuit of oil price control. This is generally positive for the price of oil and negative for US foreign policy in the Middle East. The result is that contango will be steady or reduced,, and Suezmax rates should be stable at about $20,000 - $30,000 per day.
Venezuela, Iran,and Nigeria have two breakeven prices. There is an OPERATIONAL breakeven. That is the price where al operational costs are covered,and any increase in price results in free cash flow. Then there is the NATIONAL breakeven. The governments in each of these countries essenially run the oil company, and use cash flow to fund their expenses. THAT breakeven is much higher that the operational breakeven, and may in deed be as high as you suggest. Oil prices below the National breakeven results in social unrest, decreases in social payments, and possible runaway inflation if the government does not execute policy correctly.
I do not know enough about the combined costs operations of BBEP, especially with the new additions from the last merger. I cannot predict the price at which they can survive, since they have so many moving piarts.. We also cannot forget the volitile nature of many of the oil producers and the probability that some of them may become incapable of sustained high output production. Just look at Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The unfocused high altitude bombing of Yemen civilians by the Saudi's is creating a generation of enemies in their neighbor next door. Just a few RPG shot into refineries, pumping stations and pipelines could shut the production down, and drive oil prices through the roof.
I am not a prophet. The timing of oil price in the short term is a lottery. However the pricing of oil in the longer term is pretty clear. At present,prices, with current technology, new oil can be developed, but not much in US Shale and perhaps not at all in the US. There are a lot of Middle Eastern sites where new oil can be developer, easily, for less that $40 per barrel. The Saudi's, Iranians and Iraqis can all develop new fields or wells at prices below $40 and increase their production and revenue. However they all know that they have limited lives for their assets, and they have current demands on their profits.
The best bet for the major OPEC producers is to allow oil prices to increase to a point where they can profitably increase production, but at a price below that few other producers can. That will allow them to maintain and increase market share, but keep other producers from increasing their capacity.
That price appears to be around $60 a barrel. At that price, Canadian Oil Sands would barely break even,after including a reasonable cost of capital. At that price off-shore oil is prifitable, but only at a limited number of sites. At that price, about $20 above current prices, the Saudi's would earn an additional $200,000,000 per day or, roughly, $75,000,000,000 per year. Since this is approximately the current annual budgetary deficit of the Saudi government, it represents thier breakeven.
Operating at breakeven allows the Saudi's to manage oil prices without significant financial risk. I suggest evaluating oil companies using that figure as one to value future oil company long term profitability. However there will be a lot of volitility around this price. Short term drops below $40 and above $60 will occur. Below $40 there will be little new fracking. Above $60, more expensive projects will be funded.
The Russians, Iraqis, Iranians, Venezuelans, and Nigerians are all interested in getting production limits set as high as possible, for their own country. They have a lot of reasons for saying they are producing more than they are. That will result in higher quotas, once they are set. In addition, they have very good reasons to sell at very low prices into the USA, to cut back US production. Under this conditions you might expect the following:
1. Lower that announced real production (Resulting in an unexpected increase in oil prices).
2. an INCREASE in oil imports into the USA, even though we have some excess production..
Interesting that both things are happening at present. Am I just paranoid??
With the stock below a dollar, this is meat for the penny trader. They have been caught in a short squeeze. This rally will fade in a day or two. Just sold all my BBEP and purchased BBEPP and SLDP
The Saudis have been attempting to re-establish their position as swing producer for most of a year, and have finally done it -or nearly so. It will probably take another swing or two to the $20 price level to gain firm control, and get producers to agree to actual reductions. Since we are getting to the slow season in oil consumption, an actual reduction in output is needed. The producers must counter both the decrease in consumption, and the increased production generated by the return of Iran to the oil trade. We will get news from BBEP in about two weeks. I am continuing to buy BBEPP when I have some cash. For the more risk averse BP and the 8+ percent dividend is a really good build a retirement portfolio stock.
Definitely cannot project rates beyond a quarter. My projection was for one quarter. However the situation has changed due to super contango. See my post today.
Sentiment: Strong Buy