I do not think Cooperman is a DayTrader. In a year, this company could be selling at $20 or not. Do your cash flow projections. What is the industry like? How much deferred maintenance is going on due to low Oil? Who will get the work when the rigs come back on line. NAO is a Dog, being wagged by a tail called OIL.
Let me amplify my comment below with a quote:
"Under the deal, which in November last year was delayed till end-May this year, North Atlantic Drilling would buy around 150 land rigs from Rosneft and the Russian oil giant would take a roughly 30 percent stake in the company. Seadrill, the world's biggest rig operator by market capitalisation, would remain the majority shareholder."
This deal with Rosneft is the equivalent of a "Sale and Lease-back". The Russian company is "selling" these rigs to SDRL, but they are "Buying" a percentage of the buying company. These rigs will almost certainly be used in Russia, on Rosneft's properties. The net result of this deal, if it had been completed on time, would be that, in return for "selling" Rosneft a portion of the company SDRL would have received income from the rigs "Leased Back" to Rosneft. This would have been a POSITIVE event for the SDRL cash flow. Since it is being delayed, the effect is NEGATIVE. I oversimplified my prior comment in an attempt to keep it simple. Sorry if it created confusion.
hanks for the correction, but I will need to research that before saying your interpretation that it is positive is correct. In this environment, renegotiating a future contract to supply drilling services is probably NOT a positive change to future csh flow.
April 20: Current Suezmax rates increased to $38,500, on an improving trend. Three NAT tankers went on charter since Apr 15. Generally improving financial conditions for NAT. Increases Oil prices should also increase rates for partially-owned NAO
1. BBEP is cheap, measuring it's assets at oil priced at $80 or more.
2. It is dangerous in that we do ot have a good handle onit's cash flow
3. It is probably OK, or they would not have been able to issue lower-dividend preferred
Am long 12,000 shares.
1. Yes the Earth is warming, it's been warming for 15,000 years, which is why Sahara is a desert and most of the Icefields and glaciers are gone, and why the ocean levels have risen by 600 feet. A lot of people cannot see farther than last year. Pacific High pressure Ridge - details, details.People are missing the big picture.
2. Humans may be contributing to warming, but there are forces involved beyond our control.
3. As I mentioned in my last post, the drought or "Excess of water demand over supply" extends to both surface water and subsurface water. We are mining subsurface water at increasing rates, as population grows, and supply shrinks.
4. what is needed is a Regional initiative, affecting most states west of the Mississippi,
5. There is a lot of water available, but we are wasting a lot of it, and should be recycling more.
On my property, I personally have a well, and a wastewater treatment system. The wastewater system bacterially removes nutriants, the water then flows to a tank where it is disinfected, and then it flows into a stream that disapears on my land. What I do personally , cities, and towns can do on a large scale.
!. I've been working with water sources and systems for 30 years.
2. I helped develop standards for aquifer recharge 20 years ago.
3. The drought I am talking about is not only surface water, but also subsurface water.
4. Over-use extends from Texas to Montana.
Do some research. Here is a start: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150212154527.htm
Very nice dividend. My estimate was $0.25 to $0.30 and did not include income from the last two ships, or income from NAO. The current Suezmax rates are trending down, and are below the lowest level of Q1. Too early to tell how that will affect earnings, but the present trend in prices suggests lower Q2 earnings
Producing oil, especially with fracking, and secondary and tertiary recovery is a water-intensive process. One of the unknowns, as the drought continues in the west, is the availability of water. When it comes down to the wire, will the politicians prefer to provide water for Rice, or Almonds, or Corn or Wheat or will they let the evil, poluting oil companies have the water. It may seem far-fetched, but we should not ignore the question.
Rogere: Just looked at your post. My estimates agree almost perfectly with yours. I expect a dividend between $0.24 and $0.30 also. You can look at my previous post for details.
Well guys, I'm an engineer and like numbers. So here are some facts, obtained from the TeeKay Suezmax spot rates, The actual NAT dividend history charts, and a graph of NAT dividends versus Ave Day rates developed using Hal's dividend projection data rates. (This graph is a straight line, with $0.00 annual dividends with average day rate of $13000 and rising to $4.25 at an average day rate of $60,000). Unfortunately, when I compare PAST average Day rtes with this NAT graph, there is no correspondence with the quaters's dividend and the Average Day rate as published by TeeKay. Looking at the data available, , with a spot price achieved of $35,000, I think we would be lucky to get between $0.24 to $0.30. Basically, in Q4, 2014 the TK average rate was $40,000 and NAT dividend was $0.22 for Q1. In Q1, 2015, the TK average rate was $50,000, suggesting a NAT rate increase of 25% or about $0.27 +/-.03. Wish things were different.
Saudis raising prices to China, in response to raising demand. This may signal nearing the bottom, as long as inventory storage is not full., and US supply is dropping. Expect NTI. ALDW and CLMT to temporarily drop until earnings and dividends are announced.. Expect LINE and BBEP to rise. Expect... More
Looking at SuezMax and Aframax rates at about $45,000 per day, and ships going on longer voyages. Two NAT Tankers just went on charter, each bringing in about 3.5 to 4.5 million for the voyage. While SuezMax rates have recently been trending flat, both the AfraMax aand VLCC rates have been increasing. SuezMax will not be far behind. Since crude stockpiles are building, soon the only play in town will be the Tankers. -or shut down the wells. For a lot of players, producing at prices above production and transportation costs - but less that fully allocated cost is the only game in town, and one theycan play for a few months.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There are THREE likely reasons for this action, and all of them are positive for long-term holders of this stock: 1. Management sees potential liquidity problems in the net 24 months, if oil goes to $33/barrel as it did in 2008. THis money assures cash is available even if the bank line is cut.
2. Management sees that oil properties are available at extremely attractive prices. This money lets the company go hunting.
3. Management sees that the shares of BBEP are extremely attractively priced at about 1/3 book value and that re-purchase of units of BBEP will be accretive to earnings. Just look at the effect on per unit prices if BBEP used $600 million to purchase 10,000,000 units.
While other writers are correct in that the price of BBEP is likely to drop in the short term, this is an opportunity to print money in the long term (two years).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The recent letter by the CEO of NAT (Mar 19) is very encouraging. The latest market intellignece (Mar 23) suggests that the Suezmax day rates have dropped from about $60,000 earlier in the month to about $45,000. Two NAT tankers recently went on charter, one to China and one to Africa.
That is so much above NAT's break even, NAT can probably out-bid any other shipper and still make a bundle..
I sold out NAT at a much llower price, for other investments, However I still feel it i a strong buy, with a potential price of $20.within the year.
There are several reasons for the Suadi's to pump at high rates. All of them apply:
1. Saudi Arabi was losing maret share due to US oil. They reduce future competition if US producers realize they are at risk on higher-priced wells.
2. The US government asked Saudi Arabia to assist in the Economic War Obama is trying to wage on Russia.
3.. Obama does not like oil and oil companies, this reduces the US oil company profits and makes them more pliable
4. The Keystone pipeline only makes sense if oil is about $80/ barrel or higher. The push to build the pipeline will disappear at these prices.
5. The Iranians, Venezuelans, and Ecuadorans are problems for the Obama administration. By getting Saudi assistance in tis matter, the US has placed pressure on these countries, and each of them know that the USA is in the best position to get the Saudis to change their position.
I do not currently hold SDRL, but have shares in BBEP,LINE,NTI, CLMT.
The downward potential on oil prices in the middle of 2014 was quite high, while the upward potential was very low. I cannot see CLMT signing high priced contracts at fixed prices at that time. However the new projects do offer a lot of additional potential cash flow I currently am long CLMT by a small position (2,000 units), and plan to keep fo a while