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Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. Message Board

nolaloha 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 25, 2014 12:19 PM Member since: Aug 2, 2008
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  • Reply to

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

    by nolaloha Jul 25, 2014 11:17 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jul 25, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    As a former political appointee, I try not to apply rational approaches to political decisions. However, this one is against so many people's pocket books, at so many levels, I do not think it will pass - even in California.

  • Read the linked announcement:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pacific-coast-oil-trust-announces-204200768.html

    This initiative and other related legal actions have resulted in a drop of the price of ROYT from an initial offering price of $20 to the current price of $10.47. At this price the income from ROYT is 15.85%.

    The Initiative will fail:
    1. It adversely affects a broad group of people
    2. It adversely affects the county's revenues
    3. It infringes on the ability of the State of California to create energy policy.
    4. It is against the goals of the US government.

    The current real value of ROYT is closer to the original offering price, and will continue to raise, since developments planned will result in increased production.

    I am long and just increased my position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • nolaloha nolaloha Jul 9, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    pddane: the NAT fleet appears to be in tip-top shape, and you are right, the price of tankers fom the yards today is much higher than the value of the ships on the water. While it is highly unlikely that accounting rules will allow NAT to "Mark to Market" their floating assets, you can bet that those values exceed the book. So focus on the cash generating ability of those assets. roughly, a tanker operatin g 300 days pet year will generate, at $25,000 per day, revenue of $7,5000,000, while, in NAT's case, costing $3,600,000 to operate.in direct operating cost. While rates averaged about $26,500 in the first quarter, they only averaged about $16,500 in Q2. So NAT will show a LOSS for Q2, though it will continue the dividedn from positive cash flow.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Is NTI affected by Export Ruling?

    by rdravin Jun 25, 2014 10:21 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 25, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    Since NTI uses Canadian and North Dakota Crudes, none of which is NGL , their cost of production should not be affected. I would be buying now, at about 26.25. It's on sale. Yes, it might go lower, so? It's on sale now. Can't buy more or I would.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • nolaloha nolaloha Jun 25, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    The decision to allow export of unrefined NGL (Natural Gas Liquids) which is what most "Ultra-Light Crudes" are will affect refiners that use a lot of NGL in their refineries. I do not believe that either NTI or ALDW are in that catagory. In any event the increase in the price of Bent relative to WTI and WTS will increase crack spreads more than the eport of NGL will. I think this is a way overblown reaction and purchased 8000 shares of NTI, to go with my 2000 ALDW.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Now We Export Oil, Import Oil?

    by fred357mag2000 Jun 25, 2014 7:59 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 25, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    About time! NGL has been way low in price due to over supply! Should be good for the gas producers with wet gas. Will affect some refiners but NTI should not be affected.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • nolaloha nolaloha Jun 13, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    According to consumer advocate "Megan": 212-364-8200 at the office of President Rob Marcus, TWC has a massive internet outage affecting millions of customers from California to Norh Carolina. This problem has been on-going for at least three days. She said that the Office of the president does not know what the problem is, do not have a time to repair, and the office is unaware of exctly what number of consumers are affected. A call to the office of Public Relations at corporate offices was answered by message machine and has not yet been returned.

  • According to consumer advocate "Megan" at the office of President Rob Marcus, TWC has a massive internet outage affecting millions of customers from California to Norh Carolina. This problem has been on-going for at least three days. She said that the Office of the preident does not know what the problem is, do not have a time to repair, and the office is unaware of exctly what number of consumers are affected. A call to the office of Public Relations at corporate offices was answered by message machine and has not yet been returned.

  • The Suezmax day rates are higher than last year. During this second quarter of 2014 they appear to be trending to an average of $20,000 per day. On a rough basis, with 20 ships, and 90 operating days, we end up with revenues of about $36,00,000 and operating expenses of roughly $38,000,000. Adding in interest and other expenses, the total costs will be about $41,000,000. This suggests that on a GAAP basis there will be a $3,000,000 loss. Perhaps, on a cash flow basis, once NAO is added back in, that there will be a slight positive cash flow. As a back of the envelope calculation, this is encouraging. Prospects look good going forward.

    On the international front, China appears to be building their equivalent of a Strategic Patroleum Reserve. Imports and production of crude exceed their refinery output by about 600,000 barrels per day. This is likely going into long-term storage, and represents an increase in shipping above current requirements. This is a positive development.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Ouch..offering

    by bigbear.2010 Jun 10, 2014 8:41 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 10, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    This is a sale price, like at Sears or Target. Time to buy some. Got 2000. I appreciate management's efforts.

  • Reply to

    thks

    by bobbyjopro Jun 10, 2014 9:08 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 10, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    They know this is a short-term drop. Their current shareholders. like me will see it as a "sale" and get some. I got 2000 at 12.70. So why do you think they not caring?.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    After-Hours trade drops share price

    by fl_geezer Jun 9, 2014 5:40 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 10, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    Purchased 2000 ROYT at 12.70. Yes. A gift of 5%. Will sell at 13.40

  • Reply to

    Two more ships

    by blackoutbuzz Jun 1, 2014 9:34 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 2, 2014 9:09 AM Flag

    Some rough numbers: It costs about $10,000 per day in direct operating costs and $5,000 per day in depreciation costs for a Suezmax tanker (these are rough numbers). This suggests that NAT will end up with a net cash flow if prices are above $12,000 per day (including money for repairs and overhauls), and will make real money if thet total is above $17,000 per day (All-in costs). A look at the SUEZMAX day rate charts on TEEKAY suggests that the second quarter tanker rates will average about $20,000 per day. At those rates, the price of $35,000,000 would result in a positive cash flow per tanker of around $8,000 per day or a cash on cash return of about 8% - not great, but acceptable. In addition, as NAT sops up available tankers, it gains some pricing power in the spot market. Not a super strategy, but , as I said, NAT is a good company in a bad business. my buy-back point is about 8.07

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Do we hold ?

    by dbair4 Mar 19, 2014 9:55 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha May 28, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    The sloping channel OZM is trading in has risen with a low of12.81 and a high of13.05. Purchased 5000 today at 12.08. The channel slopes up at about $0.05/day. you can program in rising buy and sell points with a difference of $0.25 between the lower buy price and the higher sell price ( if you are a day trader.)

    Sentiment: Buy

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