The current price of oil is below many of the current producers cost of production, and they will drop out. The newer producers will be fine. Because the low price of oil will result in less investment, the current over production will disappear, in 6 months to a year.. Everyone in the real oil business - supply and consumption knows this, and excess production is filling the tanks and tankers of the world. NAT is a direct beneficiary of the higher future price of oil as traders buy oil today and sell it 6 months or further in the future. Locking in profits from the difference in the prices, they gladly fill available tanker space. You can rest assured that NAT next quarter dividend will be closer to $0.60 than $0.40. The current NAT price is $2.00/share below trend. Buy Buy Buy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
While there has been a very troubling drift downward in the units of CLMT, I view this an an opportunity, for the following reasons:
1. While the current projects have been coming in at over previous budgets, they currently appear to be on schedule, and on the new projected costs.
2. The huge (for Calumet) investment in these projects have been a drag on the company for two years, but even with that drag, the unit distribution has been about 10%. That is a nice return.
3. As a small company in a huge industry, it is easy for this offering to be ignored, and being ignored is great for buyers that like bargains. (Like me)
4. With the completion of these projects, we will see sequential increases in EBIDA quarter on quarter. THAT is great for stock prices..
5. The present pull-back in oil prices may also provide the opportunity for the company to purchase assets as good prices..
I am long CLMT and am continuing to purchase more on weakness. We have potential low points at about $24.00 and $20.00, if the market collapses during the upcoming Bond Crisis. Should prices continue to drop,I plan to purchase more. (Assuming that there is no new really negative news.)
The third quarter is traditionally a lower-rate quarter. Last year the spot rates averaged about $25,000 per day. This year is is trending to average about $33,000 per day. As a rough guess, the dividend will be better than last year's $0.14. With some carry-over from this year's prior quarter, and an attempt to smooth dividends, a rate of about $0.30 would be appropriate. The current price of $14.36 is below trend by $2.64, and I would hold.
While it may seem counter intuitive, it appears that the best investment that the management of BBEP can make at present is BUY BACK YOUR UNITS. With a share price of 33% of the (Un-revalued) book, each dollar spent will return 300%. REDUCING the investment in oil fields and putting that into the units will give each remaining unitholders the best value. This must be done, however, in accordance with the existing covenants and general operational needs.
As a retired Navy Engineering Duty Captain, I can tell you that well-maintained ships last well beyond 20 years, and it appears that NAT has some of the best maintenance in the business. The biggest point might be that these ships get depreciated on the balance sheet, and provide a nice boost to cash flow on the income statement since depreciation is a non-cash expense. When they are 20 years old, they may no longer provide that boost in non-taxable income, and be sold off. However, if their operating cost remains low, and their condition remains good, they can stay in servie for a long time.
Looked at prior dividends since 1997 as well as most recent dividends to develop an estimate of the 2nd quarter's dividends. As you may know, the first quarter dividend was $0.38 and resulted from an average Suezmax day rate of $37,000 and a breakeven cost of $12,000. If we use the present average of about $57,000 and a breakeven of $13,000 we calculate a potential dividend of about $0.70/ share. THis is, of course, little more than a guess, but is supported by some data. I would actually suggest that the range in dividends would be $0.60 to $0.75.
Whrn a stock is in an index the managers of the index buy and sell that stock as people buy and sell the index. Being added to an index increases volume and often price. When a stock is removed, as BBEP recently was, you can expect the price to drop..
Liuj89: Silly person. New refinery on line, near to suppliers. Major capital investment programs completed? Modern equipment coming on line? The managers know what they are doing and this company will be very profitable.
The situation is really simple:
1. World oil consumption is about 94 million barrels per day at $75/barrel
2. World oil consumption is about 95 million barrels per day at $40/barrel
3. Available world production is about 96-97 million barrels per day - not a huge margin between production and consumption, and consumption is increasing at about .7 million barrels per day each year.
4. Unless replaced by new production, existing wells will decline by about .7 million barrels per day, per year.
5. New production is still coming on line, but no enough to replace declines.
6. The cost of most new production, in the West, is about $70/barrel, so while drilling may continue, not a lot of this production will reach the markets.
7. Everything else is just Shebai.
8. Refining will go down in the next two months, increasing the amount in storage, and dropping spot oil prices.
9. Within a year, and probably less, increasing consumption and decreasing production will eliminate the surplus.
10. you can gamble if you wish, by trading producers and refiners. If you want to buy oil at $0.30 on the dollar, get some producers that have been through this experience, such as BBEP, and hold them for a while. Better yet, do what Warren Buffet is doing, and create your own "Synthetic" oil company by owning NTI, ALDW BBEP, LNCO, SDLP, NAO and NAT. You will then own refiners, producers, services, transport and services, and get dividends on the order
NAT is continuing to trade in an upward sloping channel. Don't misunderstand me - this stock is a buy and keep - unless you need money to live on. If you need cash, buying and selling works. Last bought at 14.02 and sold at 14.47. Would buy now at this price below 14, and would keep it to about 15. .
Looked at the most recent Clarkson SUEZMAX rates. The actual average rates during 1st Quarter were $50,000 and resulted in a NAT dividend of $0.38. The just published average rates for 2nd Quarter averaged about $48,000 per day. With the two additional ships in full service, (+9% capacity) and a drop of 2% in average rates, my revised estimate is down a lot, to a number closer to $0.40 +/- $0.05. Still very respectable, but not the blowout I had initially thought. Closer to what thebpanya_v and a lot of other posters were thinking.
Since most of the wells are old and require rather expensive secondary or tertiary extraction techniques, it will endanger the wells if they are taken out of service. A lot of this stuff is as thick and hard to move as tar. If they cool off entirely, there could be a real problem resurrecting them. There is also the possibility, however unlikely, that if they stop pumping that some California authority or environmental group will find a president to keep them off line. If given a vote on this I would vote to keep production going, keep the equipment on line, and keep the needed people employed, even if the net is very close to zero.
Well- I expect NAO will be fine in a year or two. I do not day trade. Do you?
To anyone that bought at the open and is now up 2.9%:you are welcome. Today the bottom of the trading channel is 14.18 and the top is 14.88. I NEVER day trade.
Hi Deblanks: Clarksons numbers are averages, not NAT's Though I presume that the actual NAT numbers will track similar to the average, I am surprised to hear that the NAT numbers are that much lower than the averages. But since I do not have the actual NAT numbers for the second quarter, it seems reasonable to assume that if the average is slightly lower, then NATs' results will also be slightly lower than the prior quarter.
The price picture appears to be similar to December of 2014 with a price of about $56. News comments about low crude supply at California refineries also suggest a little extra strength. A dividend of $0.05 is very possible.
Silly person. They are essentially fully leased to 2017 and no meaningful debt to refinance. This is a slam-dunk 25% dividend for at least one year. Just bought 9000 shares at 8.81
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Financially, the old CFO did a good job for a long time, and then got to short-sighted about the company, and got strung-out margining his shares at a price he did not believe would ever happen. He then angered people owning the shares that depend on the income, by buying back bonds (a good idea) and then suggesting cutting the dividend (a bad idea when the owners bought for income) A new approach, keeping the dividend going, but buying in shares would keep the dividend hungary owners happy, but improve the cash flow and book value per share. Along with the obvious angst by some OPEC members should be good for the units of LNCO
Sentiment: Strong Buy