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Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. Message Board

nolaloha 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2015 8:03 PM Member since: Aug 2, 2008
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  • Producing oil, especially with fracking, and secondary and tertiary recovery is a water-intensive process. One of the unknowns, as the drought continues in the west, is the availability of water. When it comes down to the wire, will the politicians prefer to provide water for Rice, or Almonds, or Corn or Wheat or will they let the evil, poluting oil companies have the water. It may seem far-fetched, but we should not ignore the question.
    .

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nolaloha nolaloha Apr 14, 2015 7:42 AM Flag

    Very nice dividend. My estimate was $0.25 to $0.30 and did not include income from the last two ships, or income from NAO. The current Suezmax rates are trending down, and are below the lowest level of Q1. Too early to tell how that will affect earnings, but the present trend in prices suggests lower Q2 earnings

  • Reply to

    The Western USA Drought and Oil Production

    by nolaloha Apr 13, 2015 3:41 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Apr 14, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    !. I've been working with water sources and systems for 30 years.
    2. I helped develop standards for aquifer recharge 20 years ago.
    3. The drought I am talking about is not only surface water, but also subsurface water.
    4. Over-use extends from Texas to Montana.
    Do some research. Here is a start: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150212154527.htm

  • Reply to

    The Western USA Drought and Oil Production

    by nolaloha Apr 13, 2015 3:41 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Apr 14, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    The basics:
    1. Yes the Earth is warming, it's been warming for 15,000 years, which is why Sahara is a desert and most of the Icefields and glaciers are gone, and why the ocean levels have risen by 600 feet. A lot of people cannot see farther than last year. Pacific High pressure Ridge - details, details.People are missing the big picture.
    2. Humans may be contributing to warming, but there are forces involved beyond our control.
    3. As I mentioned in my last post, the drought or "Excess of water demand over supply" extends to both surface water and subsurface water. We are mining subsurface water at increasing rates, as population grows, and supply shrinks.
    4. what is needed is a Regional initiative, affecting most states west of the Mississippi,
    5. There is a lot of water available, but we are wasting a lot of it, and should be recycling more.

    On my property, I personally have a well, and a wastewater treatment system. The wastewater system bacterially removes nutriants, the water then flows to a tank where it is disinfected, and then it flows into a stream that disapears on my land. What I do personally , cities, and towns can do on a large scale.

  • Reply to

    I can see $7.15

    by smearjob Apr 15, 2015 9:38 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Apr 15, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Caution:
    1. BBEP is cheap, measuring it's assets at oil priced at $80 or more.
    2. It is dangerous in that we do ot have a good handle onit's cash flow
    3. It is probably OK, or they would not have been able to issue lower-dividend preferred

    Am long 12,000 shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • April 20: Current Suezmax rates increased to $38,500, on an improving trend. Three NAT tankers went on charter since Apr 15. Generally improving financial conditions for NAT. Increases Oil prices should also increase rates for partially-owned NAO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    why is SDRL down while oil is up?

    by daicheng0722 Apr 20, 2015 12:45 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Apr 20, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    SDRL Deal to sell rigs To ROSSOF extended but completion delayed, reducing current cash flow.

  • Reply to

    why is SDRL down while oil is up?

    by daicheng0722 Apr 20, 2015 12:45 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Apr 20, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    hanks for the correction, but I will need to research that before saying your interpretation that it is positive is correct. In this environment, renegotiating a future contract to supply drilling services is probably NOT a positive change to future csh flow.

  • Reply to

    why is SDRL down while oil is up?

    by daicheng0722 Apr 20, 2015 12:45 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Apr 20, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    Let me amplify my comment below with a quote:
    "Under the deal, which in November last year was delayed till end-May this year, North Atlantic Drilling would buy around 150 land rigs from Rosneft and the Russian oil giant would take a roughly 30 percent stake in the company. Seadrill, the world's biggest rig operator by market capitalisation, would remain the majority shareholder."

    This deal with Rosneft is the equivalent of a "Sale and Lease-back". The Russian company is "selling" these rigs to SDRL, but they are "Buying" a percentage of the buying company. These rigs will almost certainly be used in Russia, on Rosneft's properties. The net result of this deal, if it had been completed on time, would be that, in return for "selling" Rosneft a portion of the company SDRL would have received income from the rigs "Leased Back" to Rosneft. This would have been a POSITIVE event for the SDRL cash flow. Since it is being delayed, the effect is NEGATIVE. I oversimplified my prior comment in an attempt to keep it simple. Sorry if it created confusion.

  • Reply to

    No DIV announcement....

    by mmaccolini1968 Apr 20, 2015 1:29 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Apr 30, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    Rutgers88 You called it. $0.17 dividend, in the middle of your range.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nolaloha nolaloha Apr 30, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    I do not think Cooperman is a DayTrader. In a year, this company could be selling at $20 or not. Do your cash flow projections. What is the industry like? How much deferred maintenance is going on due to low Oil? Who will get the work when the rigs come back on line. NAO is a Dog, being wagged by a tail called OIL.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Is LNG Going to Be Better Than Oil?

    by catloraine May 4, 2015 4:44 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha May 8, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    NO. Huge supplies of Natural gas. High costs for transportation of LNG. FRACKING especially good for Nat Gas. Lots of Shale fields around the world. I do not feel comfortable with this combination of factors.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    It is up to OPEC

    by sfvip2319 May 29, 2015 10:14 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 2, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    +Dear SFVIP2319: Don't be a pessimist. World Oil Usage is increasing at the rate of 0.9 Million barrels/day each year. This increase is taking place because: 1. 10 million more chinese cars per year 2. Plastics. plastics, everywhere. 3. Richer people use more energy, of all kinds.

    As a result the marginal price of oil WILL continue increasing. It will be back to $100/ barrel - but perhaps not for a year or two. Keel the faith, baby! Long on BBEP,NTI, SDLP,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • While there has been a very troubling drift downward in the units of CLMT, I view this an an opportunity, for the following reasons:
    1. While the current projects have been coming in at over previous budgets, they currently appear to be on schedule, and on the new projected costs.
    2. The huge (for Calumet) investment in these projects have been a drag on the company for two years, but even with that drag, the unit distribution has been about 10%. That is a nice return.
    3. As a small company in a huge industry, it is easy for this offering to be ignored, and being ignored is great for buyers that like bargains. (Like me)
    4. With the completion of these projects, we will see sequential increases in EBIDA quarter on quarter. THAT is great for stock prices..
    5. The present pull-back in oil prices may also provide the opportunity for the company to purchase assets as good prices..

    I am long CLMT and am continuing to purchase more on weakness. We have potential low points at about $24.00 and $20.00, if the market collapses during the upcoming Bond Crisis. Should prices continue to drop,I plan to purchase more. (Assuming that there is no new really negative news.)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    This stock is at a major support level

    by liuj89 Jun 16, 2015 6:06 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 17, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    Liuj89: Silly person. New refinery on line, near to suppliers. Major capital investment programs completed? Modern equipment coming on line? The managers know what they are doing and this company will be very profitable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nolaloha nolaloha Jun 22, 2015 9:56 AM Flag

    Well- I expect NAO will be fine in a year or two. I do not day trade. Do you?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Looked at prior dividends since 1997 as well as most recent dividends to develop an estimate of the 2nd quarter's dividends. As you may know, the first quarter dividend was $0.38 and resulted from an average Suezmax day rate of $37,000 and a breakeven cost of $12,000. If we use the present average of about $57,000 and a breakeven of $13,000 we calculate a potential dividend of about $0.70/ share. THis is, of course, little more than a guess, but is supported by some data. I would actually suggest that the range in dividends would be $0.60 to $0.75.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • While it may seem counter intuitive, it appears that the best investment that the management of BBEP can make at present is BUY BACK YOUR UNITS. With a share price of 33% of the (Un-revalued) book, each dollar spent will return 300%. REDUCING the investment in oil fields and putting that into the units will give each remaining unitholders the best value. This must be done, however, in accordance with the existing covenants and general operational needs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Whrn a stock is in an index the managers of the index buy and sell that stock as people buy and sell the index. Being added to an index increases volume and often price. When a stock is removed, as BBEP recently was, you can expect the price to drop..

    Sentiment: Buy

  • nolaloha by nolaloha Jun 29, 2015 7:04 AM Flag

    NAT is continuing to trade in an upward sloping channel. Don't misunderstand me - this stock is a buy and keep - unless you need money to live on. If you need cash, buying and selling works. Last bought at 14.02 and sold at 14.47. Would buy now at this price below 14, and would keep it to about 15. .

    Sentiment: Buy

IMH
20.68+0.80(+4.02%)Jul 7 4:01 PMEDT