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Vocus, AŞ Message Board

non.sequitor 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 30, 2014 9:34 AM Member since: Apr 17, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Bookvalue

    by fraud_street Dec 29, 2014 9:21 PM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Dec 30, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    So first off, ALL assets are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them. Book value on yahoo is quite old, and I do doubt it's still worth $11.41 a share, but that doesn't mean its a zero either. Not having done any sophisticated calculations, I'd say the book value has shrunk proportionally with oil/NG drop. If oil has dropped 40%, then expect book value to have dropped similarly. My guess is they are worth approx. $7.00 a share, in Book Value.

    The oil/NG markets will come back, eventually. Right now I think their biggest problem is their very large debt of $692m. Servicing that debt is a tough job when your major asset's value is dropping.

    Secondly, in an attempt to answer 'fraud-Street's question, no stock ever actually goes to zero. They do actually stop trading once certain rules on the exchange are violated. Those rules are complex and I can only remember a few. Each stock is in a certain category, that category requires a certain minimum capitalization. Once that is broken, letters are sent out and they have I think 60 days to get their valuation backup. Also, certain categorizations require above a dollar per share trading.

    The company is free to re-list on the OTCBB, where share prices are as low as a fraction of a cent. But that doesn't help the shorts, you can't short a stock to 'zero', wait for it to de-list and expect to reap the profits. You must pay back the MMs you borrowed the shares from before it de-lists. I'm guessing the shorts get a 100% instant margin call if the MMs are told by the exchange a stock is getting de-listed.

    Having said all of this, REXX is no where near such events.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • H7N9 Causes CDC Activation of Emergency Operations Center
    Recombinomics Commentary 03:00
    April 10, 2013
    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC) in Atlanta yesterday to support the response to the H7N9 influenza outbreak in China, CDC officials said in an e-mailed statement today.

    The EOC was activated at level 2, the second of three levels. Level 1, the highest, signals an agency-wide response.

    The above activation of the CDC EOC is not a surprise. Although WHO and the CDC have claimed there was no human to human (H2H) transmission of H7N9, the first confirmed case represented by A/Shanghai/1/2013 was part of a familial cluster (both sons had severe pneumonia and one, 55M, died) as well as a geographic cluster (the second confirmed case, A/Shanghai/2/2013, lived in the same area, Minghang District, and was treated at the same hospital, Fifth Peoples Hospital). Media reports cited a significantly larger cluster.

    Moreover, the birds at live markets in the area (see map) were H7N9 positive and also had a key receptor binding domain change, Q226L raising the possibility that the birds were infected by humans.

    The key change, however, was the presence of PB2 E617K in all three human sequences, and absence in all three avian sequences.

    Moreover, the case fatality rate is at 90%, although many mild cases have not been tested.

    Therefore, the activation was expected.

    -non.sequitor

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Tuesday,
    toll is now 7 deaths, 24 infected.
    CNN:
    http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/09/world/asia/china-bird-flu-death/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Resistance

    by willgryan Feb 15, 2013 1:21 PM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Feb 19, 2013 4:02 PM Flag

    For me, an amateur, too dangerous to short. I suspect there are easier shorting targets out there. The whole market feels very high. If you short KMX and it breaks out, getting filled might be hard above 40.22.
    Good luck.
    -non.sequitor

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Resistance

    by willgryan Feb 15, 2013 1:21 PM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Feb 15, 2013 1:56 PM Flag

    Chart patterns are created by people - emotions. People 'infect' each other with greed or fear. Algorithms have no emotions and cannot infect each other, hence - odd chart patterns. So I'm guessing from this very 'odd' chart pattern that we have noticed, an algorithm at work. But the outcome is not clear. Professional traders are waiting, observing, ready to jump in above 40.22 on a breakout. Let's hope it happens.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Resistance

    by willgryan Feb 15, 2013 1:21 PM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Feb 15, 2013 1:31 PM Flag

    Yes,
    I'd agree. Noticeable resistance at 40.10.
    Probably an algorithm working a large sell order by TWAP (Time Waited Average Price), but could be an institutional trader doing the same. If it can break 40.22 today, Monday or Tuesday volume should increase dramatically. Then we'd have a breakout to about 42 in the near term.
    -non.sequitor

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Director Rakesh Gangwal bought again, his 3rd open market purchase in 7 days.
    What do you know Rakesh that the rest of us don't know about KMX ?
    -non.sequitor

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Insider cluster buy: $393,900 - 10,000 shares

    by non.sequitor Feb 14, 2013 9:43 AM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Feb 14, 2013 9:44 AM Flag

    I mean strong buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Rakesh Gangwal purchases an additional 10,000 shares on Feb 12th.
    This is in addition to his previous buy a few days ago when purchased 30,000 shares at $39.43.
    He can't sell for 6 months.

    See you at $45.
    non-sequitor

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Rakesh Gangwal brought 30,000 shares at an av. price of $39.43 on 02-07-13. No options flipping, no secondary offering, a straight-up open market purchase. He can't sell those shares for 6 months.

    So, there are 15,000+ traded entities in the United States and about 250,000 world wide. But he spent his money at the same place he's already invested in, Carmax Inc. (KMX). How is he already invested at KMX ? Simple, he is a Director there. So he gets benefits and draw a Director's salary. He couldn't find a better place than KMX to park his investment, $1.1 million.

    Nobody puts over $1 million into any one class let alone one stock unless they expect to make a very sizable Return On Investment. Why would he put all of it into one particular asset, of one asset class?

    Because he knows something the rest of the market does not yet know.

    non-sequitor.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Have to mention this

    by non.sequitor Jan 18, 2013 4:42 PM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Jan 21, 2013 11:31 AM Flag

    Hi Comfortbox,

    I'm complaining less about not getting filled (it closed 2 cents higher than my order - although I did want to free up money for something else next week), and more about the market micro structure that is not well understood and deliberately evasive. Yes, I could tell my broker (FDIC) but would prefer to gather knowledge about how this all works.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Have to mention this

    by non.sequitor Jan 18, 2013 4:42 PM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Jan 21, 2013 11:27 AM Flag

    ehwest3,
    thanks for the details.

    It was and still is, a Good To Canceled order, expiring 5-20-13. It was placed directly through Fidelity Active Trader s/w. I state this because after the close the MMs aren't required to post all of the orders they see. So you won't necessarily see my order. It was routed through Fidelity, using their own broker/Market Maker, FIDC.

    To reach 4.62, the algos must have gone through (on the asks) 4.59, then 4.60, then 4.61 and then to 4.62 to find a match. Or they did what I still suspect, a jump to 4.62 on an exact order match. Looking in my account, I see the order was placed at 01/18/2013, 03:40:51 PM ET.

    What is also scary, is the shear number of trades that occur on the 3rd market, so you can't even see their bid/asks. Trading from dark pools is opaque, unless you can afford the million dollar entry fee per year, per pool. Also approx. 70% of all volume across the board (NYSE and NASDAQ) is by algorithms.

    It is no longer just professionals that rip you off (not saying I got ripped, just saying in general) but computer programs designed to skimp fractions of a cent, millions of times a day across thousands of stocks, any way that's legal. Retail stands virtually no chance.

    Anyway, it is water under the bridge now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • non.sequitor by non.sequitor Jan 18, 2013 4:42 PM Flag

    So,
    I had 5,000 shares for sale since 3.56pm. At that time the current price was $3.56. I put in a plain GTC order, no conditions, limit at 4.60. They closed it at 4.62 at 4pm. My order did not get executed.
    How is that possible ?

    A Market Maker simply picked the price they wanted to close it at, 4.62 it seems, they then find a sell order at 4.62 and match their buy exactly with that sell, allowing this trade to jump in front of other orders, like mine at 4.60. Exactly matching orders take precedence over all others on NASDAQ. This is legal if you read the NASDAQ order flow documents.

    I bring this to your attention for when you get around to selling. Don't be surprised if you get your price but don't actually get executed, especially if you have a large order. My advice is to break up your shares into 1,000 share lots and bleed out at various prices around your target. Putting in a sell order for 5,000 or 10,000 shares or more may not get executed unless you're standing in front of a buying freight train.
    -non.sequitor

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • non.sequitor by non.sequitor Jan 18, 2013 2:33 PM Flag

    A lot of the small trades are occurring on the 3rd market. Not seeing much secondary market activity.
    Then again, I can't watch the Level II all day. I think the NASDAQ Level II only shows you 2nd market bid/ask, while 3rd market bid/ask is opaque.
    -non.sequitor

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • non.sequitor non.sequitor Jan 15, 2013 1:48 PM Flag

    To the poster who said the MMs were unloading the "last of their shares"..

    That's not how MMs work at all. You don't know anything about market micro-structure.

    They always keep a backlog of shares, they have too, SEC rules again. Plus it makes business sense. Their number one objective (from the SEC) is to maintain an orderly market. That's their job. In addition, they are allowed to make money on the spread.

    Obviously in a highly volatile (high beta) microcap like ROSG, 'orderly market' needs to be carefully considered. It's not what you think. Spikes are allowed (like the recent one) and they are allowed to make money for themselves on the spread to supply liquidity, on the buy and sell sides.

    They have complex algorithms that detect trends and watch the liquidity. As less sellers appear, they are required to sell, as less buyers appear, they are required to buy. You don't see it happen, it's done by a machine in millionths of a sec. The original trading algos from the 1990s came from these early progams the MMs use. The latest ones are amazingly sophisticated. Millions of lines of code.

    Now, for ROSG I estimate they keep at least 300k to 500k shares on hold. It's a complex calculation based off of the outstanding float, the beta and about 5 other variables like 10 day moving average of the volume. It will fluctuate a lot, maybe 20-30% over the course of some active trading days, fluctuates maybe only 1-3% on slow days.

    Remember, they make their money on the spread between the bid and the ask. When the spread is 1 cent, they really aren't making any money. When it spikes or drops, the spread increases and then they step in, supplying liquidity on the weaker side where needed, and skimming a profit for themselves. They never lose.

    Like all trading participants, long or short, they need movement. A stock not moving much is 'dead' money to all, except long term holders who care little for the daily churn.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The professional traders shorting ROSG have already covered. The amateurs shorting it should on Monday morning, if they haven't yet. It will be hard to buy the shares back on light volume, so the bids could move up quite strongly. Because of the great risk of holding for a short term trader, they will leave this for another stock moving rapidly. The pros will see stocks like TELK and short the hell out of it.

    Previous poster saying lack of insider activity means nothing is very wrong. Lack of buying/selling/flipping means they want and expect to be brought out. The insiders will keep the activity to nil to safely negotiate the SEC rules. Any potential takeover agent will tell management to do no trading activity as well. A takeover agent will examine the research and realize that for $8 - 10/share they can own the good story and virtually no debt. Cheap investment, risk/reward analysis is positive.

    I expect ROSG will drift up to to 5.50 or so early next week. Should reach 6 again on light volume in the next 2 weeks. They have a good story.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Norvartis buying Rosetta. Anyone

    by smellingmoney2 Jan 11, 2013 9:29 AM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Jan 11, 2013 9:46 AM Flag

    I don't know if you made that up or what,
    but there has been no insider activity at all, no buying or selling for over 6 months, no options flipping..nothing. Which is exactly what you'd expect from a company that wanted to be or is a takeover target. Any insider who does buying,selling or flipping while negotiations were occurring would suffer the extreme wrath of the SEC, and be charged with a federal offense.

    What's astounding, is that the SEC has no record of any insider activity at all. Yet insiders own 16% of the float. But quite a few foreign ownership filings. One Director who joined recently (Dr. Yitzhak Peterburg) is also a Director for TEVA. Do they dabble in genetics like ROSG ?

    -non.sequitor

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • non.sequitor by non.sequitor Dec 4, 2012 11:31 AM Flag

    I don't think an insider buys $926k just to collect a dividend he knows is coming. The dividend is probably $1.00/shr, and that is only a $82k profit for nearly a million at risk. He can't sell for 6 months. No, old Jeffrey is more shrewd than that. The potential for a special dividend in December is icing, not the cake.

    What do you know Jeffrey, what do you KNOW that the rest of us have yet to learn?
    Short interest is massive, possible special dividend, both are short term catalysts for upward price movement. But what made you lay down a million in 2 Form 4s recently? You know something else, as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • non.sequitor by non.sequitor Nov 28, 2012 10:48 AM Flag

    So,
    Let's think about this for a little bit. Clifford makes about 2.5m a year in salary, not to mention stock options and other perks. So he's already heavily invested in the company, by virtue of already working there. Along comes some money ($2million) , and he decides to invest it.

    There are at least 15,000 tradable entities in the United States, and another 150,000 across the world where he could of put his money. I say across the world, because a man with his knowledge and experience in finance (he is the CFO) would have considered every possible investment..everywhere.

    Now, CFO's are notoriously conservative with work money. It is safe to assume he is conservative with his own money too. In contrast to CEO's who are mostly ego driven, CFOs have decades of cold, hard calculating behind every financial decision they make. They run the computer models every day, slightly modifying the parameters, observing the outcomes. No pie-in-the-sky stuff here, straight-up cold calculations for ROI.

    What about that REIT spinoff? Why didn't he wait and put the money in that? I'm guessing because he knows he's going to get a piece of that cake too, in the near future.

    What about the '088 patent lawsuit? Indeed, he must have run the models on that too and seen that it doesn't have quite the negative impact many think it does. Or more likely, that it will end in a settlement. Most lawsuits at that level usually do.

    So, where did he put his 2 million?
    Well, he couldn't find a better place to put 2 million, than in the very same company he works for, namely PENN. In common stock, not restricted stock. He also brought from the open market, not some options flipping some of the directors have engaged in recently.
    (See the Form 4)

    Now, there was a heavy sell of about 1.25 million dollars by David Handler on 11-16-12, a big sell, but people sell for many reasons, they buy for only one.

    When a conservative CFO makes a multi-million dollar buy, one he's locked into for 6 months (SEC rules), he's aiming for at least a 50% return.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the Spike?

    by GeraldWl Aug 3, 2012 2:16 PM
    non.sequitor non.sequitor Aug 3, 2012 2:37 PM Flag

    Some entity brought 40,000 shares at 2.12pm, then 30,000 more at 2.14pm. Not necessarily the same entity each time. No way to know any more details.