I think the real risk is in achieving FC. It's already demonstrated that arc520 can have substantial KD. It is logical to infer, which has already been demonstrated by animal model, that arc520 can achieve ALMOST any KD level needed. It has not, however, obtained evidence that it can achieve FC, the primary end point for the study.
I am long (very much so), and I believe in the notion that deep enough KD will "wake up" the immune system, and as a result, achieving FC.
where's all the analysis gone? for the past few days, people gave so much on the science behind the drug, and all the reasons why it should succeed. now this piece ($3 vs. moon). Is that all you've got? I don't think this is a good argument.
anyway. I am long. mostly because of the favorable evidence.
that seems to be THE definition. could you put it in plain English? sorry. no medical training whatsoever.
you've shown a lot of data calculations. but I think there are other aspects that's not just the data:
1. toxicity. we have data upto 4mg. any dosage other than that will need additional support;
2. time to market. we can get the best dosing scheme. but the company also needs to survive. If i had the choice, I'd pick a quick, marketable solution to a more elaborate solution in a heart beat. this, in believe, should be the approach for all the early stage companies.
I may not have understood your question correctly. but I'd image that if we can hold down the s-AG to the same level for the same/longer time as what interferon did (regardless how long it take to achieve that level), then we can claim a FC. no?
I am responding as if I know anything about this, which I don't. But how about using the same/equivalent definition of Interferon? I am assuming there is a generally accepted def when people claim Interferon reached FC with 1 log KD.
checked 5-year history. $6 is almost the lowest (a brief break down below $6 5 years ago. and then it's almost always above $8). I have two questions:
what's the main drive for the pps to go up for the last five years?
the pps has been coming down for the last few months (since June?). why?
" it certainly would be the FIRST real molecular success in the Alz arena ever." how do you know?
thanks for the clarification. in that case, I don't have to exercise the options. I'll most likely just close the option and record a gain. lesson learnt: unless you buy an option expiring in a year or longer, the gain from the option, if any, will always be short term. there is no other way to get around that. thanks again.